Swiss CPI
Better Market Tone Than Earlier This Week
April 4, 2024
There’s an old adage not to bet against the central bank. Market participants earlier this week had been unnerved by fears that disinflation is stalling amid improving aggregate demand. Yesterday’s speech at Stanford University by Fed Chairman Powell depicted essentially unchanged forward policy guidance. The precise path of the federal funds target may be currently […] More
Hotter-than-Predicted U.S. CPI Data Elicit Adverse Market Reaction
February 13, 2024
U.S. consumer price inflation unexpectedly remained above 3.0% in January. A 0.3% monthly increase was the most since September, and the 12-month rate of increased slowed less sharply than forecast, returning to November’s 5-month low of 3.1% but showing no net improvement since 3.0% recorded last June. U.S. core consumer prices, which exclude food and […] More
Fitch’s Downgrade of the U.S. Debt Rating Pushes Long-Term Interest Rates Higher
August 3, 2023
In the wake of the announced downgrading of U.S. government debt and amid doubts about a coming recession, the 10-year Treasury yield rose nine basis points overnight and touched a high of 4.18%, which compares to 3.31% just over four months ago. 4.18% is the highest level since early last November. Other 10-year sovereign debt […] More
Further Yen Softness
February 13, 2023
In April Japan will be getting its first new governor in a decade, creating a convenient opportunity for an inflection point in the central bank’s ultra-easy monetary policy, which has been out of step with tighter stances adopted in other developed economies as well as developing ones. Nonetheless, the initial comments from the incoming governor, […] More
Dollar Mixed, Stocks Down in Europe and Asia, Oil Up But Sovereign Debt Yields Sharply Lower
October 3, 2022
On this first trading day of the fourth quarter, the dollar fell 1.3%, 0.9%, 0.7% and 0.4% against the kiwi, Aussie dollar, loonie, and sterling but rose by 0.4%, against the euro, 0.2% versus the Swiss franc and 0.1% vis-a-vis the Japanese yen. China is closed most of this week. Stock markets sank 1.1% in […] More
Rout of Stocks and Bonds Intensifies, Sending the Dollar to Fresh Two-Decade High
September 1, 2022
Manufacturing purchasing manager surveys for August showcased real-sector pain from elevated inflation and supply delays. Such also reveal some progress on the inflation front (but not enough so for central bankers to halt their counter-attack to restore price stability). Equity markets in the Pacific Rim fell by 2.3% in South Korea, 2.0% in Australia, 1.9% […] More
Hawkish Remark from Powell and Plenty of More Data to Absorb as December Kicks Off
December 1, 2021
Fed Chairman Powell signaled that a faster tapering of Fed quantitative stimulus will be considered at this month’s FOMC meeting. The U.S. economy is showing resilience, and the risk is rising of higher inflation expectations. The dollar dipped 0.1% on a weighted basis overnight. Equities, 10-year sovereign debt yields, and the prices of oil and […] More
Tuesday Surprises
November 2, 2021
West Virginia Senator Manchin flip-flopped again. After days of indicating progress on the twin fiscal packages addressing dated infrastructure and a host of other major issues such as climate change and child care, he said he would not support this two-front approach, which throws President Biden’s agenda into peril. The Reserve Bank of Australia discontinued […] More
Inflation and Debt Ceiling Concerns Nudge Stocks and Dollar Lower
October 4, 2021
Equity markets closed down 2.2% in Hong Kong, 1.1% in Japan, 1.6% in South Korea and 1.0% in Taiwan. China was closed for a National Holiday and will remain so through Thursday. The German Dax is unchanged, and while some other European bourses show marginal rises, U.S. stock futures are off around 0.4%. The dollar […] More
Service Sector PMI Surveys and a Whole Lot More Data This Wednesday
March 3, 2021
The dollar overnight rose 1.0% against the Mexican peso, 0.5% relative to the New Zealand dollar, 0.4% versus the Aussie dollar, 0.3% against sterling 0.2% on a trade-weighted basis and 0.1% versus the yen and loonie. Sterling has remained steady on net, by contrast, continuing a pattern of comparative strength since the start of this […] More
