Service sector PMIs

Concerns Over Trade Lessen

December 4, 2019

Zig-zagging perceptions from day to day about the likelihood of a U.S.-Sino trade deal have been a major source all year of short-term financial market volatility. The shifts often happen inexplicably, like changing weather. Today investors are more hopeful than yesterday that a deal will be reached to culminate phase I of the trade negotiations. […] More

More Evidence of Weakening Growth in Europe and Trepidation Ahead of President Trump’s State of the Union Address Tonight

February 5, 2019

The conclusion of Euroland’s service-sector and composite purchasing manager surveys tells it all: The business environment is at its most challenging since the height of the region’s debt crisis.” The composite Ezone PMI reading of 51.0 was at a 66-month low, and service sector activity (51.2) was near its 4-year low. From a separate report […] More

Several Points of Interest This Friday

January 4, 2019

The U.S. Labor Department’s monthly jobs report was considerably stronger than forecast and counter evidence to the market view that the U.S. economy has slowed abruptly. Non-farm payroll jobs shot up 312K in the final month of 2018. Jobs growth in October-November got revised upward by 58K, bringing the fourth-quarter increase to more than three […] More

Service Sector PMIs Out but Many U.S. Cancellations

December 5, 2018

U.S. Treasury market and stock markets are closed for a federal holiday mourning the death of former U.S. President  George H.W. Bush. Fed Chairman Powell’s scheduled testimony before the Joint Economic Committee in Congress was scrapped with no announced make-up date yet set, but the Beige Book analysis of regional conditions will be released at […] More

Two Games of Chicken and an Uncertain U.S. Election Unnerving Investors

November 5, 2018

Chinese President Xi Jinping did not budge from his previous posture on trade, throwing cold water on U.S. President Trump’s pre-weekend comments that much progress had been made to defuse the trade war. In response, equity markets in the Pacific Rim slumped today by 1.8% in Hong Kong and Singapore, 1.6% in Japan, 0.9% in […] More

Tuesday’s Resilience in U.S. Stocks Doesn’t Prevent More Weakness in Asian and European Share Prices Today

September 5, 2018

Global investors are nervous for several reasons: Emerging market economies squeezed by trade tensions and Fed tightening. The possibility of a U.S. government shutdown over Trump’s insistence on funding for a Mexican border wall. A new book depicting the Trump Administration on the verge of a nervous breakdown. Unresolved geopolitical hot spots. Seasonal concerns. In […] More

Service Sector PMI Surveys and U.S. Jobs Data

August 3, 2018

The U.S. Labor Department’s July jobs and wage data will be released shortly. Investors are already digesting PMI data reported overnight. Euroland’s composite purchasing managers survey (comprising both manufacturing and service sector activities) dropped back to a 2-month low of 54.3 in July from a 4-month high in June of 54.9. The services PMI had […] More

Lack of U.S. Leadership on This Independence Day Depresses Market Action

July 4, 2018

The dollar is unchanged against the yen, kiwi and loonie, up 0.2% relative to the euro and 0.1% versus the Swiss franc and Aussie dollar, and down by 0.1% vis-a-vis sterling and the yuan. Stocks in Europe are down 0.4% in Germany and Italy, 0.3% in the U.K., and 0.1% in France. Asia saw some […] More

Non-Manufacturing U.S.-Minus-Euroland PMI Spread

May 5, 2018

The U.S. non-manufacturing purchasing index-minus-euro area services PMI was cut nearly in half to +2.1 in April, a three month low. The U.S. index dropped 2.0 points to 56.8, led by reductions of 1.5 and 3.0 points in sales/business activity and employment. Euroland’s services PMI fell just 0.2 points to 54.7. The Irish and French […] More

The Fickle Nature of Investor Anxiety about a Trade War

April 5, 2018

Flip-flopping attitudes about the likelihood of a full-fledged intensifying trade war between China and the United States continues to be a big source of day-to-day changes in market behavior. There was panic earlier this week. Today, investors believe Trump and Jinping will negotiate a truce and forestall a trade meltdown. One problem with such optimism […] More

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