Service sector PMIs

Non-Manufacturing U.S.-Minus-Euroland PMI Spread

May 5, 2018

The U.S. non-manufacturing purchasing index-minus-euro area services PMI was cut nearly in half to +2.1 in April, a three month low. The U.S. index dropped 2.0 points to 56.8, led by reductions of 1.5 and 3.0 points in sales/business activity and employment. Euroland’s services PMI fell just 0.2 points to 54.7. The Irish and French […] More

The Fickle Nature of Investor Anxiety about a Trade War

April 5, 2018

Flip-flopping attitudes about the likelihood of a full-fledged intensifying trade war between China and the United States continues to be a big source of day-to-day changes in market behavior. There was panic earlier this week. Today, investors believe Trump and Jinping will negotiate a truce and forestall a trade meltdown. One problem with such optimism […] More

Sino-U.S. Trade Dispute Evolves Into Deeper Conflict and Rattles Markets

April 4, 2018

As a presidential candidate, Trump prioritized the U.S. trade imbalance, which he blamed on unfair practices of America’s trading partners. But as president, he acted initially on many other issues, while doing little about trade. Then came the U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, which by themselves affected only a sliver of commerce. A month […] More

Second Thoughts About Trade

March 5, 2018

U.S. equities turned higher at mid-day on lessening worries about a trade war. Republicans in Congress do not support President Trump’s desire to impose big tariffs on steel and aluminum. Some investors believe the threat is a political negotiating ploy that will not happen and will not trigger a trade war. Reported PMI indices today […] More

Global Equity Correction Extended

February 5, 2018

The unprecedentedly harsh Federal Reserve sanctions announced Friday against Wells Fargo Bank injected fresh impetus to last week’s global correction in share prices. So did a further basis point rise in the 10-year Treasury yield. Equities fell today by 2.6% in Japan, 1.6% in Australia and Taiwan, 2.1% in New Zealand, 0.9% in India and […] More

Leaping Equities

January 4, 2018

The spirited surge in equities was extended in overnight trading, with Japan’s first session of the new year posting a 741-point or 3.3% rise in the Nikkei-225 index. Share prices also climbed 1.1% in Singapore, 0.8% in Hong Kong, 0.7% in Indonesia and 0.5% in India and China. With the baton passing to Europe, stocks […] More

Many Data Released But Market Attention Focused on U.S. Congress

December 5, 2017

Purchasing manager surveys are among a slew of economic statistics reported around the world today. A highly partisan U.S. Republican tax bill grinded further toward approval, and so did the Senate confirmation process of Jay Powell as the next Federal Reserve Chairman. There were two central bank meetings. The National Bank of Poland and Reserve […] More

Somewhat Softer Dollar

October 4, 2017

The dollar overnight lost 0.6% against the peso, 0.5% relative to the Aussie dollar and yen, 0.4% versus the the kiwi, 0.3% against the the euro and loonie and 0.2% against the Swiss franc and sterling. President Trump, who travels to Las Vegas, is said to be closer to making a decision on his appointment […] More

Disappointing U.S. News Including Latest Purchasing Manager Surveys

September 6, 2016

U.S. data released today reinforce the view of those analysts who do not expect the federal funds rate to be increased later in September. ¬†First, the Federal Reserve’s proprietary labor market conditions index fell 2.0 points, swinging from a reading of +1.3 to a 3-month low of -0.7 in August. Secondly, the IBD/TIPP index of […] More

Active Day in Spite of North American Labor Day Holiday Closures

September 5, 2016

A less fearful mood surrounds the U.K. after the service sector purchasing managers index for the British economy shot up 6.5 points to a reading of 52.9, a 3-month high, in August. Britain’s composite PMI of 53.6 after 47.5 in July constitutes a 5-month high. Sterling touched a 7-week high and is 0.2% firmer than […] More