Reserve Bank of India
A Busy Day on Several Fronts
December 5, 2019
U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Pelosi has instructed Democratic members to draw up articles of impeachment against President Trump. Revised third-quarter GDP data for the euro area left the quarterly growth rate unchanged at 0.2%, which matches the second-quarter result. Consumption, business investment, and government spending made positive growth contributions, but net exports and inventories […] More
Concerns Over Trade Lessen
December 4, 2019
Zig-zagging perceptions from day to day about the likelihood of a U.S.-Sino trade deal have been a major source all year of short-term financial market volatility. The shifts often happen inexplicably, like changing weather. Today investors are more hopeful than yesterday that a deal will be reached to culminate phase I of the trade negotiations. […] More
Investors Uneasy Awaiting U.S. Jobs and Trade Data
October 4, 2019
Today’s big question is whether the U.S. jobs statistics due in an hour corroborate other weak data released during the past month. Yesterday brought stunning news that the non-manufacturing purchasing managers index slumped 3.8 points in September to a 3-year low and embodied drops of 6.3 points in production and 6.6 points in new business. […] More
More Central Banks Cut Interest Rates, Persistent Trade Tensions, and Lower Inflation
August 8, 2019
Central bank interest rates were cut by 25 basis points today in the Philippines and Serbia. Earlier this week, rates had been reduced by central banks in India (35 bps), Thailand (25 bps), and New Zealand (50 bps). The common thread in these moves is the trade war unleashed by U.S. President Trump, the weaker […] More
Back-to-Back Central Bank Rate Cuts in India Reverse Last Year’s Increases
April 4, 2019
Officials at the Reserve Bank of India cut its repo rate and reverse repo rate each by 25 basis points to 6.0% and 5.75%, respectively. The cuts were decided by a 4-2 voting margin, with two dissents favoring no change. Reductions of 25 basis points had also been implemented after the prior policy review in […] More
A Dive in German Factory Orders, A Cut in Indian Interest Rates, and Still No Resolution on Brexit
April 4, 2019
German factory orders, which had been expected to edge marginally higher, instead plunged 4.2% in February following a 2.1% drop in January that left the combined January-February average 3.7% lower than the 4Q mean and February’s level 8.4% below a year earlier. Export orders sank 6.0% and domestic demand for capital goods, a leading indicator […] More
Brazilian and Indian Monetary Policy Decisions
August 1, 2018
Central Banks in two of the four BRIC economies held monetary policy reviews. Coincidentally, while the Brazilian Selic rate was left unchanged at 6.50%, the Indian repo rate was lifted 25 basis points to rest also at 6.50%. Previously, the Selic rate was lowered sharply by 50 basis points in 2016, 675 bps last year […] More
Reserve Bank of India
June 6, 2018
A trend reversal in the interest rate cycle has occurred. For the first time since January 2014, monetary officials raised their key repo and reverse repo rates to 6.25% and 6.0%, respectively. Although the future rate bias remains “neutral,” a released statement presents a picture of greater upside inflationary risk despite recently lower food cost […] More
Reserve Bank of India
April 5, 2018
The RBI Monetary Policy Committee’s first bimonthly policy statement of fiscal 2018/19 notes that the future trajectory of CPI inflation now seems likely to be somewhat lower than that imagined two months ago due lower food and fuel costs. Inflation of 4.4% in February was close to the 4% medium-term target midpoint. But domestic demand […] More
Reserve Bank of India
February 7, 2018
India’s Monetary Policy Committee maintained its existing rate structure including a 6.0% repo rate after its first scheduled review of 2018. It did this despite a 5.2% inflation rate at end-2017, which is well above the target center of 4.0%. Official felt compelled to revised projected inflation in the first half of the fiscal year […] More
