Reserve Bank of India

Investors Uneasy Awaiting U.S. Jobs and Trade Data

October 4, 2019

Today’s big question is whether the U.S. jobs statistics due in an hour corroborate other weak data released during the past month. Yesterday brought stunning news that the non-manufacturing purchasing managers index slumped 3.8 points in September to a 3-year low and embodied drops of 6.3 points in production and 6.6 points in new business. […] More

More Central Banks Cut Interest Rates, Persistent Trade Tensions, and Lower Inflation

August 8, 2019

Central bank interest rates were cut by 25 basis points today in the Philippines and  Serbia. Earlier this week, rates had been reduced by central banks in India (35 bps), Thailand (25 bps), and New Zealand (50 bps).  The common thread in these moves is the trade war unleashed by U.S. President Trump, the weaker […] More

Back-to-Back Central Bank Rate Cuts in India Reverse Last Year’s Increases

April 4, 2019

Officials at the Reserve Bank of India cut its repo rate and reverse repo rate each by 25 basis points to 6.0% and 5.75%, respectively. The cuts were decided by a 4-2 voting margin, with two dissents favoring no change. Reductions of 25 basis points had also been implemented after the prior policy review in […] More

A Dive in German Factory Orders, A Cut in Indian Interest Rates, and Still No Resolution on Brexit

April 4, 2019

German factory orders, which had been expected to edge marginally higher, instead plunged 4.2% in February following a 2.1% drop in January that left the combined January-February average 3.7% lower than the 4Q mean and February’s level 8.4% below a year earlier. Export orders sank 6.0% and domestic demand for capital goods, a leading indicator […] More

Brazilian and Indian Monetary Policy Decisions

August 1, 2018

Central Banks in two of the four BRIC economies held monetary policy reviews. Coincidentally, while the Brazilian Selic rate was left unchanged at 6.50%, the Indian repo rate was lifted 25 basis points to rest also at 6.50%. Previously, the Selic rate was lowered sharply by 50 basis points in 2016, 675 bps last year […] More

Reserve Bank of India

June 6, 2018

A trend reversal in the interest rate cycle has occurred. For the first time since January 2014, monetary officials raised their key repo and reverse repo rates to 6.25% and 6.0%, respectively. Although the future rate bias remains “neutral,” a released statement presents a picture of greater upside inflationary risk despite recently lower food cost […] More

Reserve Bank of India

April 5, 2018

The RBI Monetary Policy Committee’s first bimonthly policy statement of fiscal 2018/19 notes that the future trajectory of CPI inflation now seems likely to be somewhat lower than that imagined two months ago due lower food and fuel costs. Inflation of 4.4% in February was close to the 4% medium-term target midpoint. But domestic demand […] More

Reserve Bank of India

February 7, 2018

India’s Monetary Policy Committee maintained its existing rate structure including a 6.0% repo rate after its first scheduled review of 2018. It did this despite a 5.2% inflation rate at end-2017, which is well above the target center of 4.0%. Official felt compelled to revised projected inflation in the first half of the fiscal year […] More

India’s Policy Interest Rate Kept at 6.0%

December 6, 2017

Although the decision not to change India’s monetary policy settings had been expected, the released statement embodies some mixed signals. There was a single dissenting vote to cut the main policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.75%. A previous such cut this year occurred in early August. On the other hand, note was made […] More

Reserve Bank of India

October 4, 2017

The Indian repo rate was left at 6.0% by a 5-1 vote, with one dissenter favoring a cut of 25 basis points. At the previous meeting in early August, the rate had been sliced by 25 basis points. The rate previously was reduced by 50 basis points in two moves during 2016 and by a […] More

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