U.S. Labor Statistics, Service-Sector PMIs, and a Focus on Some Central Banks

February 3, 2017

The dollar rose modestly overnight ahead of the U.S. jobs data, gaining 0.4% against the kiwi, 0.3% versus the yen, Swissie and sterling, 0.2% relative to the euro, loonie and Australian dollar, and 0.1% against the Mexican peso. China reopened after a week celebrating the Lunar New Year. The dollar fell 0.2% against the yuan, […] More

Dollar Drops Against Yen, Yuan and Peso

January 5, 2017

The dollar fell overnight by 1.3% against the Mexican peso, 0.7% relative to the Japanese yen and 0.6% vis-a-vis the Chinese yuan. The U.S. currency also lost 0.2% to the Swiss franc and 0.1% versus the euro, loonie and Australian dollar but rose 0.3% against sterling and 0.1% relative to the kiwi. Share prices climbed […] More

Lower Dollar as Investors Await FOMC Minutes

January 4, 2017

The dollar depreciated overnight by 0.8% against the loonie, 0.5% relative to the yuan and kiwi, 0.4% versus sterling, 0.3% vis-a-vis the euro and 0.2% against the yen and Australian dollar. Japan reopened for a half day, and the Nikkei rose 2.4%, catching up for lost time. In other Pacific Basin stock markets, equities rose 1.7% […] More

Investors Disregard Italian Referendum Result and Renzi’s Resignation

December 5, 2016

There was only a fleeting market response to the latest giant step for world populism and anti-globalization. Italy’s government suffered a very poor showing in the constitutional referendum held yesterday. Prime Minister Renzi’s Democratic Party barely captured two of every five votes, and Prime Minister Renzi resigned, setting the state for anti-euro sentiment in the […] More

Several Developments to Watch

November 3, 2016

A few new U.S. political polls show Clinton still leading, but the race has narrowed, leaving the eventual outcome in doubt. The Mexican peso trimmed its recent losses. Britain may get softer Brexit terms after all. A U.K. court has ruled that parliament must vote on the invocation of Article 50, which will begin the […] More

A Depressing VEEP Debate, PMI Services Data, and Central Bank Developments

October 5, 2016

The U.S. vice-presidential debate showcased U.S. politics at its chaotic worst. On balance, Pence seemed more polished, but the American League wild card baseball playoff game offered much better entertainment. On the central banking front, The Bank of Iceland left its seven-day deposit rate unchanged at 5.25%, having cut such in August by 50 basis […] More

Markets React to U.K. July PMI Figures but Hardly to Trump’s Speech

July 22, 2016

Britain’s composite purchasing managers index swung from 52.4 in June to an 87-month low of 47.7 in July.  Service sector activity (49.1) contracted at the fastest pace in 41 months, while services did even worse, falling at the most rapid rate in 88 months with a reading of 47.4.  Sterling’s post-Brexit slump sent input prices […] More

Big Market Moves on Brexit Day

June 23, 2016

Polls have opened in the U.K. where voters are deciding whether to remain in the EU or leave.  Polls close at 10 PM local time.  Markets are positioned for a “remain” outcome. The dollar rose 1.3% overnight against the yen but is down 1.2% against sterling, 1.0% relative to the loonie, 0.9% versus the New […] More

PMI Report Card and Other News

June 1, 2016

Today is the first day of June, a month that sees the ECB Governing Council meet tomorrow and both the FOMC and BOJ Board hold policy meetings at mid-month.  Markets only discount a one in four chance of Fed tightening this month but more than even odds for an interest rate increase by the July […] More

Risk Aversion Returns after Upbeat Monday

May 3, 2016

Stocks, Treasury yields, and oil prices faltered Tuesday for various reasons. Disappointing Chinese, British and Irish manufacturing purchasing manager surveys reported. Mediocre first-quarter U.S. corporate reports in the background. EU Commission’s Spring Forecast revised 2016 and 2017 projected growth marginally downward. Credibility of BOJ policy very low.  Japanese market shut for first of three consecutive […] More