Oil

Covert Currency War Games

May 3, 2016

Even with U.S. monetary stimulus being throttled back and other central banks pressing harder on the stimulus pedal, the pace of policy change thus far and in the future will be too gradual to make a huge difference in a direct way through their influence on short- and long-term interest rate differentials.  The cutting edge […] More

April 2016 in Figures

April 30, 2016

The dominant market themes in March had been strong oil and equities, dollar and yen weakness, and modest sovereign debt yield increases.  In April, West Texas Intermediate crude oil extended March’s 13.6% advance with a further leap of 19.8%, but yen strength was the big currency market story.  Ten-year sovereign debt yields rose except for […] More

January in Figures

January 30, 2016

January 2016 was an extremely volatile month in world financial markets.  Oil set the tone, with West Texas Intermediate crude plunging almost 31% in the first three weeks to a low of $26.19 before trimming that loss by more than half.  Beyond mid-month, stock prices in the U.S. were headed for a record January dive. […] More

December and 2015 in Figures

January 4, 2016

Between the end of November and end of December, long-term interest rates rise in Switzerland, Germany, Britain and the United States but fell in Canada and Japan.  Three-month rates adjusted almost fully to the first federal funds rate hike since 2006.  The dollar fell against the euro, yen, Swissie and kiwi but advanced against loonie, […] More

October in Figures

November 1, 2015

In several countries during October, equities recorded the sharpest monthly gains in four years.  Bond yields fell in Japan, Germany and the United States but rose in Britain.  Short-term interest rates fell in the eurozone but were unchanged elsewhere.  Crude oil and gold advanced about 5%.  Naturally the dollar fell against commodity-sensitive currencies.  But the […] More

May in Figures

May 30, 2015

The dollar resumed its uptrend in May following a counter-trend move in April.  An exception was the yuan, which marches to a government-managed beat rather than one set by market forces.  The kiwi was the weakest currency among those charted in this feature.  Long-term interest rates were mixed in May, while short-term rates again barely […] More

February in Figures

February 28, 2015

The short month of February lacked a consistent story to tie around different asset market classes.  Share prices appreciated across the board, but the dollar underwent mixed and rather diverse changes ranging from a 3.8% rise against the Swiss franc to a similarly-sized depreciation versus the New Zealand dollar.  U.S. and British long-term interest rates […] More

Note on Oil, the Dollar, and Inflation

February 18, 2015

The genesis of this comment lies in the 1970s, not because of similarities between then and now but rather because the current period seems on anecdotal observation to be an inversion of then.  There were two oil price shocks in the 1970s, a quadrupling of crude in early 1974 and a second sharp upward thrust […] More

January in Figures

January 30, 2015

2014 got off to an extraordinarily volatile start in the marketplace, with huge declines in long-term interest rates, big gains in the yen and dollar, wide swings in equities not all in the same direction, a 9.4% drop in oil prices, and a recovery of 8.0% in the price of gold. The month saw huge […] More

December and 2014 in Figures

January 4, 2015

Substantial declines were posted in 10-year sovereign debt yields both in December and in calendar 2014.  British share prices stagnated, but other equity markets performed very well.  The three-month eurilibor interest rate fell 21 basis points last year, and Swiss short-term rates moved below zero.  The dollar experienced once of its best years, posting similar […] More

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