Stocks Regroup as Markets Await Obama’s Budget Speech

April 13, 2011

Equities advanced 2.3% in India, 1.4% in China, 1.6% in South Korea, 0.9% in Japan, 1.1% in Singapore, 0.7% in Hong Kong and 0.6% in Taiwan and Malaysia.  In Europe, the German Dax, British Ftse, and Paris Cac have recovered 1.1%, 0.9% and 0.8%. The improved tone of stocks after losses earlier this week occurred […] More

Stronger Euro and Commodity Prices

April 8, 2011

Gold at $1471.20 per ounce is at another record peak. Silver hit a 31-year high of $40.23 per ounce. Oil reached a 30-month high of $111.68 per barrel and is 1.1% stronger on the day. The ECB’s tightening yesterday has buoyed the euro, which at $1.4411 is 0.7% above yesterday’s closing level.  The dollar also […] More

Lower Share Prices

March 29, 2011

Stocks are down 0.8% in Germany, 0.6% in France, and 0.3% in Britain.  Earlier, equity markets lost 1.0% in China, 0.3% in Indonesia, and 0.2% in Japan but climbed 0.9% in India, 0.8% in South Korea and 0.5% in Australia. The dollar rose 0.3% against the yen and Swiss franc, a sign of greater risk […] More

Focus this Monday on Geopolitics, Not Data

March 28, 2011

Chancellor Merkel of Germany suffered key state election defeats over the weekend.  Key issue was nuclear power. The summit of EU leaders in Brussels failed to finalize an agreement on funding for the European Stability Mechanism.  Such hopes ended when Portugal’s government collapsed. There appears to have been a partial reactor meltdown at Fukushima.  Tepco […] More

American Close-Up: the 2000 and 2008 Elections

December 13, 2010

Presidential political mandates are earned on the job, not won in the ballot box, and it takes more than the executive branch of government to seal the deal. The presidential election of 2000 was decided by a Supreme Court decision in December that decided Florida and gave George W. Bush five more electoral votes, 266, […] More

Dollar Lower But Stocks and Bond Yields Higher after U.S. Tax Cut Extension Deal

December 7, 2010

President Obama announced a tentative deal with Republicans that would extend all Bush era tax cuts for two years and unemployment insurance benefits for 13 months.  Congressional Democrats played little role in these negotiations. The dollar dropped 0.5% against the Aussie dollar, kiwi and sterling, 0.4% relative to the Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and euro […] More

Higher Fixed Income Yields

November 10, 2010

The 10-year British gilt yield jumped another 11 basis points.  Comparable German bund and Japanese JGB yields are up six and two basis points, and so are Treasury future yields.  Irish 10-year yields advanced for a twelfth session in a row, bringing their premium versus bunds to nearly 580 basis points.  Irish yields were 171 […] More

Mid-Term Elections: T Minus Five

October 28, 2010

After U.S. voters go to the polls in five days, the composition of the Congress will be flipped on its head or almost so, and that change is expected to usher in two years of stalemate, unlike the activist 111th Congress.  Democrats now control 256 seats in the House of Representatives, identical to what they […] More

Investors Will Be Surprised If FOMC Renews QE Today

September 21, 2010

The FOMC meets today and will release a new statement around 18:15 GMT.  Commodity-sensitive currencies, the dollar and global bond yields are softer in advance. The dollar lost 0.5% against the euro, 0.3% against the yen, 0.2% against the Swiss franc, and 0.1% against the yuan.  The greenback firmed 0.2% against sterling, however, aided by […] More

A 30-Year-Long Trend of U.S. Disinflation

September 17, 2010

U.S. CPI inflation peaked at the cusp between the Carter and Reagan administrations some thirty years ago.  Each U.S. presidential administration since Carter has experienced less inflation than its predecessor.  The table below documents total and core non-food & energy CPI inflation in percent per annum terms for every presidency since John Kennedy.  The latest […] More