National Bank of Serbia
Serbian Central Bank Rate Cut
November 7, 2019
the National Bank of Serbia’s executive board did make a change in its policy rate, cutting such by 25 basis points to 2.25%. This is the third such cut since July. A statement of explanation cites weakening inflationary pressure and the easing actions of other central banks but asserts that Serbian domestic macroeconomic indicators continue […] More
Risk Back On
November 7, 2019
A claim was made by a Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesman that the U.S. and China have agreed to a phased and mutual reduction of trade deficits but only contingent on a trade deal being done. Stock markets are up 0.7% in Germany, 1.0% in Australia, 0.7% in Singapore, 0.6% in Hong Kong, 0.5% in India, […] More
Dollar and Yen Fell in Tandem
October 10, 2019
The dollar and yen dropped overnight by 0.6% against the New Zealand and Australian currencies, 0.5% relative to the euro, 0.3% versus the Swiss franc and peso, 0.2% relative to the loonie and sterling and 0.1% against the yuan. Ten-year U.S. Treasury and Japanese JGB yields are unchanged, whereas their German and British counterparts increased […] More
Markets React to ECB Stimulus, U.S. CPI Data, and Continuing Hopes on Trade Talks
September 12, 2019
Policymakers at the European Central Bank as expected cut the deposit rate by 10 basis points to minus 0.50%, announced an open-ended asset purchase program to start in November at EUR 20 billion per month, said targeted LTRO operations will carry the average deposit rate, and introduced a a 2-tiered system of reserve remuneration in […] More
Second Serbian Central Bank Rate Cut of 2019 Announced Today
August 8, 2019
The National Bank of Serbia’s Executive Board lowered the policy interest rate by 25 basis points. There had also been a reduction of that size last month. At 2.5% the rate is at a 10+ year low. But officials stressed a cautious approach in light of “global trade tensions, a possibility that monetary policy decisions […] More
More Central Banks Cut Interest Rates, Persistent Trade Tensions, and Lower Inflation
August 8, 2019
Central bank interest rates were cut by 25 basis points today in the Philippines and Serbia. Earlier this week, rates had been reduced by central banks in India (35 bps), Thailand (25 bps), and New Zealand (50 bps). The common thread in these moves is the trade war unleashed by U.S. President Trump, the weaker […] More
Brexit and Tariff Man Leading the Overnight News
April 9, 2019
A decision is needed tomorrow on whether and how long to grant Britain another extension on Brexit talks. In the meantime, Prime Minister May today will be holding talks with her German and French counterparts. She wants a short extension to June 30th but seems no closer to forging a parliamentary coalition behind any plan. […] More
ECB Policy Shift Drives Stocks and Sovereign Debt Yields Lower, Dollar and Yen Higher
March 7, 2019
The Governing Council of the European Central Bank revised projected growth and inflation significantly downward, postponed the first possible interest rate hike to beyond 2019, announced a third round of quarterly targeted longer-term TLTROs to help “preserve favorable bank lending conditions and the smooth transmission of monetary policy,” retained a negative risk balance in spite […] More
Global Slowdown Concerns Remain in Play
January 10, 2019
FOMC minutes yesterday revealed less clarity about the future path of the fed funds target. Some committee members had been hesitant to endorse December’s rate hike, the ninth of this tightening cycle, although a consensus persists that a few more increase are probable in the future. Ultimately, policy will be reactive to the data, and […] More
More Risk Aversion Lends Support to Dollar
October 8, 2018
The dollar has risen today by 0.8% against the Chinese yuan, 0.6% relative to sterling, 0.4% versus the euro, 0.3% vis-a-vis the loonie, and 0.1% against the Swiss franc and Mexican peso. Japan (Sports Day) and Canada (Thanksgiving) are observing holiday closures, but China reopened for business following a one-week observance of the Communist Revolution […] More
