National Bank of Romania

Romanian and Czech Monetary Policy Reviews

August 6, 2020

The National Bank of Romania enacted its third policy interest rate reduction of 2020. Following up on cuts of 50 basis points in March and 25 bps, the rate was reduced by another 25 basis points to 1.50%. In justifying this step, a released statement states that “given the transmission lags of the lower policy […] More

Dollar Extending Gains Against Commodity-Sensitive Currencies

February 7, 2020

The dollar rose overnight by a further 0.7% against the kiwi, peso, Russian ruble, and Aussie dollar and by 0.5% relative to the Chinese yuan. The dollar dropped 0.3% versus the yen and 0.1% vis-a-vis sterling but is unchanged against the euro. Intensifying concern about the spreading coronavirus epidemic provided an excuse for profit-taking in […] More

Dollar Firms Modestly; Equity Markets are Mixed

January 8, 2020

The dollar recorded overnight gains of 0.3% against the euro, 0.2% versus the yen and sterling, and 0.1% vis-a-vis the loonie. The dollar remains unchanged relative to the yuan, Swiss franc and kiwi. ADP estimates that U.S. private-sector employment increased last month by a robust 202k, beating November’s result and exceeding analyst expectations. There was […] More

A Steady Dollar

November 6, 2019

The dollar on balance remains near Tuesday closing levels. Gold is 0.3% firmer. The spate of recent increases in 10-year sovereign debt yields was reversed today with 3-basis point declines in U.S. Treasuries and British gilt yields and a dip of 1 basis point in the 10-year German bund yield. The Japanese 10-year JGB yield, […] More

Technical Recessions in Germany and U.K. and More Impeachment Drama in the U.S.

October 3, 2019

Composite purchasing manager surveys that embody non-manufacturing as well as manufacturing activity released for several countries in Europe by and large underperformed expectations. Most alarming were the reports for Germany and the U.K., each of which recorded slight contractions of real GDP in the second quarter. The German service sector PMI dropped 3.4 points in […] More

Yuan Sinks to 11-Year Low and Depresses Global Stocks & Sovereign Debt Yields

August 5, 2019

It’s been a chaotic day in financial markets, with America seemingly at war on several fronts and non-manufacturing PMIs down in the U.S., Europe, Japan and China. The dollar rose 1.6% against the yuan and 1.3% relative to the peso but fell 1.7% against the euro, 1.0% relative to the Swiss franc, and 0.5% vis-a-vis […] More

Independence Day 2018

July 4, 2019

Financial markets this Thursday barely moved in the absence of U.S. participation. A few more purchasing managers surveys from June were reported. The global composite PMI stayed at May’s three-year low level. The global services PMI recovered 0.3 points to 51.9 from May’s 33-month low. Hong Kong’s private manufacturing PMI signaled a contractionary trend for […] More

National Bank of Romania

May 15, 2019

Board members of the National Bank of Romania did not raise their monetary policy rate further despite enumerating several concerns. Inflation has risen to 4.1%, and officials project that such will “remain above the variation band of the target during the next three quarters and thereafter return to and stay in the upper half of […] More

U.K. in Greater Danger of a No Deal Brexit

April 2, 2019

The British House of Commons still cannot find sufficient agreement on the terms of withdrawing from the EU. Faced with binary scenarios of withdrawal without a deal or a lengthy delay in leaving, the first option is looking more and more likely. The 10-year British gilt yield dropped five basis points in response overnight, but […] More

Decision Day in America

November 6, 2018

Market behavior today has been unremarkable, as investors around the world wait to see which vision of America has prevailed. The dollar has dipped 0.1-0.2% against the euro, Swiss franc, yuan, and Canadian, Aussie and New Zealand dollars. there’s been a 0.3% drop against the peso and sterling but a 0.1% uptick relative to the […] More

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