Manufacturing PMIs

U.S. Monetary Tightening Fever Lifts Dollar, Stocks and Sovereign Debt Yields

March 1, 2017

Last night’s speech by President Trump did no harm but lacked the details that investors were hoping to learn. No more is known about what will replace the Affordable Care Act, or how increased government spending will be financed. Trump was less contentious, but any relief could quickly dissipate today after the new immigration policy […] More

More Surprises

January 3, 2017

German inflation accelerated sharply in December. The Chinese manufacturing purchasing managers index compiled by Caixin rose a full point to a 47-month high of 51.9 in December. The production subindex reached its best level since January 2011. A Kuwaiti decision to reduce oil production sent WTI crude up 2.1% to $54.87 per barrel, highest since […] More

Sharp Overnight Increases in Price of Oil and Long-Term Interest Rates

December 1, 2016

West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded another 3.3% higher to $51.05 per barrel. Manufacturing purchasing manager surveys from November were mostly encouraging on growth but also reflect intensifying input price inflation. The latter development and oil’s recovery support the dramatic climb in ten-year sovereign debt yields. These rose today by 26 basis points in Brazil, […] More

Days of Wonder

November 1, 2016

Tomorrow’s FOMC statement is expected to prepare markets for a December rate hike. Ten-year sovereign debt yields are up 5 basis points in the U.S., 4 bps in Britain, and 3 bps in Germany. In Japan, where the BOJ now targets the 10-year JGB, that yield remained unchanged overnight. The U.S. election one week from […] More

A New Dynamic Emerges: Sterling Weakness is Good for the Ftse and British Economy

October 3, 2016

The view that Brexit is an unqualified bad thing is dead. The June referendum has depressed sterling, but the economy has performed better. An initial drop in consumer sentiment has reversed. Second-quarter GDP growth of 0.7% turned out better than anticipated and stronger than the first-quarter result. Among a slew of manufacturing PMI survey results […] More

U.S. Factory PMI Prints Below 50 Unexpectedly while Ezone Counterpart Hardly Changes

September 1, 2016

The Institute of Supply Management reported a much greater 3.2-point deterioration in the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index to 49.4 in August, a seven-month low. Readings below 50 imply contracting activity, but at 43 or lower is falling GDP implied. August’s slide looks genuine. A separate manufacturing index compiled by Markit Economics was 0.9 points […] More

In June, Factory Activity Quickened in Both the United States and Euroland

July 1, 2016

Euroland’s manufacturing purchasing managers index rose by 1.3 points in June, but that quickening rate of activity expansion was exceeded by a 1.9-point advance in the U.S. PMI to 53.2.  As a result, the spread between those two measures swung from a minuscule Ezone advantage of 0.2 points in May to a still small U.S. […] More

Big Further Drop in Sovereign Debt Yields

July 1, 2016

A bond market rally based on expected monetary stimulus from a variety of authorities and other pro-growth support has taken hold of world financial markets.  Commodities are up, too.  The dollar is down, and profit-taking in U.S. stocks is indicated despite higher share prices in Asia and Europe. Bank of England Governor Carney gave an […] More

Similar Manufacturing Conditions in U.S. and Euroland Last Month

June 1, 2016

Just 0.2 points separate the ISM’s U.S. manufacturing purchasing manager index of 51.3 and Markit Economics’ eurozone estimate of 51.5.  The U.S. index climbed a half point further above the 50 level, while Euroland’s index was 0.2 points lower than its April reading.  The average EUR/USD relationship last month was little different from its mean […] More

U.S.-Minus-Euroland Factory PMI Spread Swings Back into the Red

May 2, 2016

For eight straight months through February, Euroland’s manufacturing purchasing managers index as compiled by Markit Economics had exceeded the ISM U.S. manufacturing PMI reading.  The string was snapped in March but resumed in April, as the PMI differential swung from +0.2 to -0.9 points. The U.S. purchasing managers index in manufacturing fell last month by […] More