Manufacturing PMIs

Factory PMIs Released and High Hopes Regarding U.S. Jobs Report

September 1, 2017

Narrow net changes in the dollar (+/- 0.2%) characterize most key relationships. A 0.5% rise of the yuan is an exception. Solid gains in European stocks can be seen, including 0.9% in France, 0.8% in Germany, 0.6% in Italy and 0.3% in Great Britain. Indian, Chinese and Japanese stock markets rose by 0.7%, 0.2% and […] More

Ton of Data Depresses Sovereign Debt Yields

August 1, 2017

Released U.S. economic indicators today were lower than forecast. The Institute of Supply Management’s manufacturing purchasing managers index dropped 1.5 points to a 2-month low of 56.3, which still implies pretty solid activity. Construction spending sank 1.3% in June. The main disappointment was delivered by personal income and spending. Income stagnated instead of rising about […] More

Many PMI Reports on First Business Day of the Third Quarter

July 3, 2017

Markets this Monday are reacting to many cross-currents. The dollar has appreciated 0.3-0.5% against the yen, euro, Swissie, sterling, and Australian and and New Zealand currencies. It has risen more slightly versus the peso, yuan and loonie. Aside from declines in Australia of 0.7% and New Zealand of 0.4%, equities are mostly higher. Indonesia’s bourse, […] More

Yen Weakens to a Six-Week Low

May 2, 2017

The yen is down 0.3% on balance after touching an overnight low of 112.32 per dollar, its weakest value since March 21. Japan’s services purchasing managers index and composite PMI slipped to 2-month lows of 52.2 and 52.6 in April from 19-month peaks set in March. On-year growth in Japan’s monetary base slid under 20% […] More

Japanese Tankan and a Slew of Manufacturing PMIs Reported

April 3, 2017

The dollar gained over 1% further against the South African Rand and rose 0.6% overnight versus the kiwi. Other dollar advances thus far today amount to 0.4% relative to the loonie, 0.2% vis-a-vis sterling, and 0.1% against the euro, peso and Swiss franc. China is closed for the Ching Ming Festival and will remain shut […] More

U.S. Monetary Tightening Fever Lifts Dollar, Stocks and Sovereign Debt Yields

March 1, 2017

Last night’s speech by President Trump did no harm but lacked the details that investors were hoping to learn. No more is known about what will replace the Affordable Care Act, or how increased government spending will be financed. Trump was less contentious, but any relief could quickly dissipate today after the new immigration policy […] More

More Surprises

January 3, 2017

German inflation accelerated sharply in December. The Chinese manufacturing purchasing managers index compiled by Caixin rose a full point to a 47-month high of 51.9 in December. The production subindex reached its best level since January 2011. A Kuwaiti decision to reduce oil production sent WTI crude up 2.1% to $54.87 per barrel, highest since […] More

Sharp Overnight Increases in Price of Oil and Long-Term Interest Rates

December 1, 2016

West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded another 3.3% higher to $51.05 per barrel. Manufacturing purchasing manager surveys from November were mostly encouraging on growth but also reflect intensifying input price inflation. The latter development and oil’s recovery support the dramatic climb in ten-year sovereign debt yields. These rose today by 26 basis points in Brazil, […] More

Days of Wonder

November 1, 2016

Tomorrow’s FOMC statement is expected to prepare markets for a December rate hike. Ten-year sovereign debt yields are up 5 basis points in the U.S., 4 bps in Britain, and 3 bps in Germany. In Japan, where the BOJ now targets the 10-year JGB, that yield remained unchanged overnight. The U.S. election one week from […] More

A New Dynamic Emerges: Sterling Weakness is Good for the Ftse and British Economy

October 3, 2016

The view that Brexit is an unqualified bad thing is dead. The June referendum has depressed sterling, but the economy has performed better. An initial drop in consumer sentiment has reversed. Second-quarter GDP growth of 0.7% turned out better than anticipated and stronger than the first-quarter result. Among a slew of manufacturing PMI survey results […] More

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