Japanese machinery orders

Several Disinflationary Signs Around the World

April 12, 2017

Chinese consumer prices fell 0.3% on month in March and  remained below a 1% 12-month trend at 0.9%. PPI inflation settled back to a 2-month low of 7.6%. U.S. import prices posted a monthly drop (0.3%) for only the third time in the past year and a smaller on-year advance of 4.2%. Non-fuel import price […] More

Storm Front Coming to the North-Eastern U.S Corridor

March 13, 2017

The coming week was already shaping up to be laden with market-moving developments such as the Fed’s virtually certain interest rate hike and Dutch parliamentary elections, each set for Wednesday. Now comes word that two storm fronts will be merging within 24 hours, creating blizzard conditions and resulting in a foot or more snow in […] More

A Convergence of Bond Yields

February 9, 2017

Ten-year sovereign debt yields fell 6, 5, and 3 basis points in Spain, Italy and France but rose 8 bps in Greece, 2 bps in the U.S. and U.K. and 1 bp in Germany. The dollar advanced 0.7% against the kiwi, which was depressed when the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy statement left the […] More

Dollar Strengthens, Bond Prices and Mexican Peso Fall

November 10, 2016

Large protests against the U.S. election results erupted in several U.S. cities overnight, including N.Y.C., Chicago, Oakland and Seattle. President-Elect Trump will travel today to Washington to meet President Obama at the White House to begin the transition of administrations. On the premise of a more stimulative U.S. fiscal policy, a likely federal funds rate […] More

Lower Dollar as Hopes Dim over Nearness of Next Federal Reserve Rate Hike

August 10, 2016

Today’s main financial theme is the persistent weakness of global growth.  The 10-year British gilt yield fell six basis points to a new record low of 0.52% in the U.K. versus 1.43% at the end of May. Ten-year German bund and Japanese JGB yields are 2 basis points lower and each quite negative at -0.10% […] More

Sharply Weaker Yen

July 11, 2016

The yen lost 2.1% against the dollar, notching its biggest daily decline in 11-1/2 weeks.  There has not been reported intervention, but Sunday’s upper house parliamentary election, won strongly by Prime Minister Abe’s LDP Party, clears the way for more aggressive macroeconomic stimulus there. Half of the 242 seats in Japan’s House of Councillors were […] More

Market Pessimism Returns

June 9, 2016

Central bank action overnight accentuated the negative. ECB President Draghi made another plea for badly needed structural reform and fiscal support, and he warned of lasting damage to potential growth in the region of prolonged very weak growth with persisting deflationary risks. ECB Governor Villeroy defended very low interest rates as necessary to counter insufficient […] More

FOMC Minutes and a Missing Plane Rattle Market Nerves

May 19, 2016

A wide range of commodities have dropped sharply, including overnight declines of 1.5% in gold, 1.9% in oil and over 2.0% in copper. Stocks and bonds also suffered. Share prices dropped 1.3% in New Zealand and Singapore, 1.2% in India, 1.0% in Hong Kong, 0.8% in Taiwan, 0.6% in Indonesia and Australia, and 0.5% in […] More

Mostly Firmer Dollar as Markets Eye U.S. Primaries and Upcoming FOMC and BOJ Meetings

March 14, 2016

There’s been a 12.7% devaluation of the Egyptian pound.  The U.S. currency has risen against a wide array of other emerging market currencies, too, as investors upgrade the probability of further Fed tightening before midyear. The dollar shows gains of 0.6% against the kiwi, 0.5% versus the Swiss franc and loonie, 0.4% vis-a-vis the euro, […] More

Dovish Remarks from a Federal Reserve President

February 17, 2016

Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren gave a speech overnight that warned of long-lasting effects on inflation from the plunge of energy prices and predicted that such could impeded efforts to raise U.S. interest rates.  Rosengren is one of the more dovish FOMC members. ECB Governing Council member Nowotny of Austria struck a very different tone, […] More

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