Japanese GDP

Watching Several Situations

May 16, 2018

A weaker-than-expected Japanese GDP report saw negative growth on both a nominal and real basis last quarter. There was additional evidence of less inflation than assumed in Europe, and Australian wage costs data show benign containment. Treasury-compiled capital movements revealed another big U.S. inflow in March. It’s been a busy day for central bank news, […] More

Significant Data Reports

February 14, 2018

Japanese real GDP expanded only 0.5% at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate last quarter, the weakest pace in eight quarters and down from 2.2% in 3Q and 2.5% in 2Q17. GDP still grew faster (1.6%) in 2017 than the prior year’s pace of 0.9%. The GDP price deflator went up merely 0.2% in 2017 and […] More

Strong U.S., Japanese, Chinese, French and Canadian Data Reported and Brexit Talks Take a Step Forward

December 8, 2017

There have been some impressive stock market advances overnight in Asia (Japan 1.4%, Hong Kong 1.7%, Singapore 1.1%, and India 0.9) and Europe (Italy 1.3%, Germany 0.9%, Spain 0.8% and the U.K. 0.7%). The S&P is 0.4% firmer in early U.S. trading. The dollar is closing out the week on a high note, having risen […] More

Dollar and Stocks Continue to Slide

November 15, 2017

Dollar losses overnight amounted to 0.7% against the yen, 0.5% versus the euro, 0.4% vis-a-vis the Swiss franc and kiwi, 0.3% relative to the yuan, 0.2% against the peso and 0.1% versus sterling. The yen touched a 4-week high, and the euro moved back above its January 1999 starting level. Ten-year sovereign debt yields are […] More

Less Risk Aversion Now but Respite Might Not Last

August 14, 2017

North Korea hasn’t backed down rhetorically, and U.S. President Trump has every reason to keep foreign crisis distraction on the front-burner in light of the developments in Virginia. Nonetheless, the new week kicked off with last week’s haven-favored assets trimming their gains. Investors have shown temporary faith that a nuclear war will be averted one […] More

A Day Potentially Fraught with Major Developments

June 8, 2017

First up is ECB President Mario Draghi’s press conference. The Governing Council didn’t change interest rates. No surprise there. But new macro-forecasts will be unveiled, and there are risks that the growth outlook will be made brighter but also that projected inflation may be lowered. Next comes former FBI Director Comey’s testimony before the Senate […] More

Investors Remain Very Risk Averse and Driven by Politics, Not Data

May 18, 2017

Sovereign debt yields continue to fall. In futures, the 10-year Treasury yield of 2.19% is down four more basis points and shows a 22-basis point plunge since the May 10th close. Comparable German bund and British gilt yields fell six and 3 basis points thus far today. The Japanese JGB is unchanged after data showing […] More

Spotlight in Coming Week to Fall on the Fed

February 13, 2017

Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday could prove contentious, with Republicans in firm control of the government, commodity-fueled price pressure reawakening in the U.S. and around the world, and a severe critic of Fed accommodation, David Malpass, having just been […] More

Rotation in Investment Strategies Extended

November 14, 2016

The dollar continued to climb, gaining overnight by 1.0% against the yen, 0.9% versus the Swiss franc, 0.8% relative to the euro, 0.7% vis-a-vis sterling, 0.5% against the kiwi, 0.3% versus the Mexican peso and 0.1% against the loonie. Since the close on November 8, the day of the U.S. election, the dollar has advanced […] More

Investor Hope Sustained into New Week

August 15, 2016

Like last week, markets continue to interpret weak economic data in the positive light that central banks and fiscal authorities will respond with aggressive macroeconomic stimulus that keeps long term interest rates low and commodities and equities buoyant. The major data report overnight was preliminary Japanese GDP in the second quarter, which rose in volume […] More

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