Market Reaction to Chinese Monetary Easing

April 20, 2015

The People’s Bank of China slashed its reserve requirement to 18.5% from 19.5%.  The full-percentage point reduction was twice as great as a previous 50-bp cut announced on February 4 and came in reaction to weaker GDP and other data announced last week.  February’s cut had been the first since three 50-bp reductions engineered in […] More

IMF Downgrades Growth Outlook Again

October 9, 2013

The International Monetary Fund updates growth forecasts in January, April, July and October.  The table below documents the evolution of projected real GDP growth in 2013 and 2014 across a spectrum of nations.  Estimates released today call for global growth of 2.9% in 2013, down forecasts of 3.2% made in July, 3.3% predicted last April […] More

Picking Up the Pieces

April 16, 2013

Monday was an extremely difficult day for financial markets.  A poisonous atmosphere was well established even before the terrorist explosions in Boston.  Gold was in freefall, posting the worst selloff in decades on fear of European government sales.  Chinese data had been disappointing, and worries about the U.S. economy had resurfaced.  The mood overnight was […] More

G20 Weekend Statement Will Not Bring the Euro Debt Crisis to Closure

April 22, 2012

Finance ministers and central bank governors of the Group of Twenty meeting in Washington D.C. on Saturday released a statement that confirmed leaked reports of an accord to raise IMF resources “by over $430 billion in addition to the quota increase under the 2010 reform.”  These augmented resources are to be available to all IMF […] More

Momentum Shift in Europe

April 17, 2012

A troubled investor mood persisted in the Pacific Rim where share prices fell by 1.9% in Taiwan, 1.3% in China, 0.8% in Thailand, 0.4% in South Korea, 0.2% in Singapore and 0.1% in Japan.  The U.S. secret service scandal rippled further. But news out of Europe kindled the willingness to take risk.  The Paris Cac, […] More

Currency Policy Strains Unresolved

October 11, 2010

Talks among officials of the G-7 and broader community of nations in connection with the IMF/World Bank meetings in Washington have done little to resolve brewing currency wars.  There have been the typical pledges of cooperation and an agreement to have the IMF study the question.  But nothing concrete emerged.  U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner escalated […] More

Shifting Geographical Sources of Global Growth

October 7, 2010

The IMF’s October 2010 World Economic Outlook released in conjunction with this week’s IMF/World Bank meetings in Washington contains useful information for sorting world growth trends over the past two decades.  Growth rates in the table below are expressed in annualized terms, that is percent per annum.  Figures in the right-most column embody IMF growth […] More

Revised IMF Growth Forecasts

July 8, 2010

Emerging markets will continue to power 4%+ growth in world GDP, according to new forecasts from the IMF.  In 2010, China, India and Brazil are projected to expand by over 10%, over 9%, and over 7%, respectively.  Forecast for each of those BRIC economies was revised above prior estimates crunched in April.  Economic growth among […] More

IMF Growth Projections and the Dollar

April 21, 2010

The evolution of quarterly growth projections by the IMF provide a useful gauge for charting shifting sentiment for different regions of the world economy.  New GDP growth forecasts for 2010 are compared below to estimates released by the IMF three months ago and in October, July and April of last year.  The oldest set of […] More