Greek debt talks

Greek Talks Looking Grim

June 25, 2015

Daybreak on Thursday brings news of an ultimatum to the Tsipras government from its Troika of creditors, not the breakthrough that investors had been hoping to hear.  The deadline has already passed.  Final decision now moves on to eurozone finance ministers, who meet later this day, but the outlook for a deal does not appear […] More

IFO Monthly Report and a Setback in the Greek Talks

June 24, 2015

Yesterday’s proposal by Greek Prime Minister Tsipras was not accepted by all the Europeans.  News of this setback sent share prices down 3.8% in Greece and 0.9% in Germany, Spain and Italy.  Stocks fell also by 0.5% in France and Switzerland and by 0.1% in Great Britain.  The Greek fixed asset yield spread above Germany […] More

Greece Offers New Proposal to Creditors

June 22, 2015

The dollar, European stocks and European bond yields are higher.  Greek P.M. Tsipras offered a new deal, which wasn’t outright rejected initially, to the heads of the IMF, EU and ECB.  EMU finance ministers meet later today in Brussels.  The offer has engendered new optimism that a default and Grexit can be avoided. Share prices […] More

Continuing Deadlock over Greece Rattles Markets Badly

June 4, 2015

Ten-year sovereign debt yields rose 8 basis points in the U.K., 5 bps in Germany, and 4 bps in Japan.  Futures put the 10-year Treasury at 2.42%, which like its German counterpart of 0.93% is at a new high for the year. Share prices are down 2.6% in Greece, 1.8% in France, 1.7% in Germany, […] More

More Greek Jitters as Clock Runs Down

June 2, 2015

No agreement yet on Greece.  Negotiators from the troika (IMF, EU and ECB) met last night in Berlin. The dollar fell 0.9%, touching a 2-week low of 1.1038 per euro.  The dollar also lost 1.0% against the Australian dollar, whose central bank released a less dovish statement than anticipated, preferring data-driven forward guidance to an […] More

Offsetting Market Forces

May 11, 2015

Interest rate cuts by the People’s Bank of China sent Chinese share  prices up 2.9%. Impasse in Greek debt talks sent Greek share prices down 2.9%.  German politicians seem more inclined to gamble on Greece exiting the euro, as Greek leaders hint that a scheduled EUR 780 billion payment to the IMF due tomorrow may […] More

An Important Week Starts Quietly

April 27, 2015

Very few economic indicators get released today.  Later in the week sees the release of preliminary estimates of U.S. and British first-quarter growth, each of which is likely to prove soft.  Investors await Wednesday’s FOMC policy statement, eager to learn how the continuing lull in U.S. activity might affect coming Fed policy.  Do they believe […] More

Tug of War on EUR/USD

April 16, 2015

Across-the-board overnight losses in the dollar masks opposing forces on the key EUR/USD relationship. Relative to key European monies, the dollar on balance has lost 0.6% against sterling, 0.4% versus the euro and 0.2% relative to the Swiss franc. At one point, however, the dollar had retreated as far as 1.0764 against the euro but […] More

Still Awaiting News on Greek Talks

February 20, 2015

Today is a self-imposed D-day on talks between the newly elected Greek government and its creditors.  Led by Germany, the latter insist that Greece abide by all previously agreed policy conditions or aid will be shut off at the end of this month.  The Greeks want a bridge loan, not a mere debt extension. Preliminary […] More

Japanese GDP, Greek Debt Negotiations, and Holiday Closures in North America

February 16, 2015

The 2.2% annualized rise of Japanese real GDP last quarter merely reversed the third-quarter drop and left its level almost 7% lower than in the first quarter.  Real GDP for the year was flat compared to the average 2013 level, and the GDP price deflator’s 2014 increase of 1.6% was only half the size of […] More