Awaiting ECB Press Conference and British Election Outcome

May 6, 2010

A lot is happening…. Asian stocks were hammered.  A 3.3% drop in the reopened Japanese Nikkei was the largest decline since March 30, 2009.  Chinese stocs fell 4.6% to an 8-month low.  Equities dropped 2.2% in Australia, 2.0% in South Korea, 1.5% in Thailand and Taiwan, 1.3% in Indonesia, 0.7% in Singapore and 0.6% in […] More

Dollar and Yen Up as Investors Opt for Greater Safety

April 27, 2010

The dollar has risen 0.7% against sterling, 0.5% against the euro, 0.4% relative to the Swiss franc, 0.3% versus the kiwi and 0.2% against the Australian dollar.  The Canadian dollar and yen are unchanged and up 0.3% against the greenback.  Investors fret that some EU governments won’t approve a bail-out of Greece or that it […] More

Greek Government Formally Requests Aid Package Be Activated

April 23, 2010

Faced with sky-high Greek interest rates, the government in Athens has asked that the EUR 45 billion aid package from the EU and IMF be activated.  The process not requires consent from all 15 other members of the euro area.  The big uncertainty is Germany’s response, but on the whole markets are relieved that something […] More

Conflicting Signals From Europe

April 22, 2010

The dollar has appreciated 0.4% against the euro and Swissy, 0.2% versus the Canadian dollar and 0.1% relative to sterling and the Australian dollar.  The greenback has dipped 0.2% against the yen and 0.1% versus the kiwi. The Nikkei slumped 1.3% and again fell below 11K, while stocks in Greece got hammered 2.4%.  Equities have […] More

Bailing Out Greece Not Like the 2009 Bail-Out of U.S. Banks

April 20, 2010

Watching the drip-by-drip evolution of talks to avoid a near-term Greek government default leaves me with a feeling of deja vu.  Didn’t the plan to infuse major U.S. banks that began in late 2008 also take much longer than expected and include several big and unexpected steps backward along the way?  Many faux pas were […] More

Twin Focus Persists on Greece and China

April 16, 2010

EU finance ministers, a.k.a. Ecofin, are meeting today in Spain over the Greek debt problems.  Greek long-term interest rates remain too high, and the government in Athens is attempting to secure a quick activation of the EUR 45 billion aid package, which remains very unpopular with German voters.  A subsequent meeting on April 19 in […] More

Greek Risk Again Weighing on the Euro

April 15, 2010

It took just four days for concerns about Greek debt to roar back.  A third of the post-aid package decline in Greek two-year yields has been reversed, and the Greek-German ten-year spread again exceeds 400 basis points.  Investors are convinced the Greek government will have to use the EUR 45 billion package very soon and […] More

Higher Inflation on Energy

April 13, 2010

The U.S. and Canadian dollars lost 0.4% against the kiwi and sterling, 0.3% against the Swissie, and 0.1% against the yen, euro, and Australian dollar. Equities have fallen 1.1% in Taiwan, 0.8% in Japan, 0.7% in Australia, 0.4% in Malaysia, 0.3% in Pakistan and 0.2% in Hong Kong.  In Europe, the German Dax is 0.4% […] More

EU Spells Out Details of Bigger-Than-Expected Aid Package for Greece

April 12, 2010

Markets have reacted to weekend news of a 3-year EUR 45 billion promise of aid for Greece.  The plan puts a 5.0% ceiling on Greek interest rates.  EUR 30 billion will come from other EU countries including EUR 8.4 billion from Germany.  The IMF will top this off with another EUR 15 billion. The euro […] More

Currency Market Chatter Can Be Misleading

April 9, 2010

A Greek chorus is an ever-present fixture of currency market trading.  A market participant can formulate opinions and trading strategies from the relentless drip of new information — data releases, comments made and general news — or from market conditions (how market prices and volumes are behaving) or from unsolicited remarks about the market by […] More