German ZEW expectations index
Confusion on Many Fronts
October 15, 2019
Details of the Phase I trade deal that U.S. President Trump proclaimed last week remain vague, and it’s unclear even if the Chinese and U.S. negotiators reached any kind of common ground to commit to writing. The pendulum of investor expectations about where trade talks are heading continues to swing wildly by the day and […] More
Marking Time
September 17, 2019
Ahead of the FOMC’s interest rate decision on Wednesday, the dollar moved overnight by no more than +/-0.1% against the euro, yen, Swiss franc, loonie and sterling. The dollar separately rose 0.5% versus the Australian dollar after a signal that Aussie monetary policy might be eased further, and gains were made of 0.4% relative to […] More
Peso Panic and Some Deescalation of the U.S.-Sino Trade dispute
August 13, 2019
Sunday’s primary election in Argentina served notice that populism is making a big comeback there and has generated a stampede out of the peso (down nearly 22%) and local stocks, whose share prices tumbled nearly 50% and by the second largest day-to-day slump in seven decades. Investors fear a return to protectionism and other state […] More
Stronger Dollar
July 16, 2019
The dollar strengthened overnight by 0.9% against sterling, 0.6% relative to the peso, 0.4% versus the euro and Swiss franc, 0.3% vis-a-vis the yen, 0.2% against the Aussie dollar and 0.1% versus the kiwi. In other euro cross-rate developments, sterling weakened to a half-year low against the common currency, but the Swiss franc is hovering […] More
Upbeat Tone to Tuesday’s Data Reflected in Stocks and Bonds
April 16, 2019
Share prices rose 2.4% in China, 1.2% in Hong Kong, 1.0% in India, 0.8% in New Zealand, 0.7% in Indonesia, and 0.2% in Japan. Stocks in Europe show gains of 0.7% in both Germany and Switzerland and 0.4% in Great Britain. Ten-year U.S. Treasury and German bund yields advanced another basis point, and the dollar […] More
Stocks Rebound Somewhat but Situation Still Unstable
November 13, 2018
With the G20 summit in Argentina on November 30 – December 1 fast approaching, U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu Yandong discussed trade issues in a phone conversation, the first high-level U.S.-Sino talks of any sort on this explosive issue. A breakthrough was not reported, but some equity markets bounced higher after […] More
Stock Prices Heading South
September 11, 2018
Fears that the Sino-U.S. trade war is about to escalate sharply weighed on global stock markets. Another concern is Hurricane Florence, a category 4 storm in the Atlantic that’s headed for landfall in the Carolinas sometime around Friday. Over 1 million people are fleeing their homes. Today is the 17th anniversary of the Al Qaeda […] More
Weak European Data Out but Little Fresh News on the Trade War Front
July 10, 2018
The dollar overnight gained 0.4% against the yen, 0.3% relative to the euro, Swiss franc and yuan, 0.2% versus the kiwi and 0.1% relative to the Australian currencies and the loonie. The Trump Administration has flipped the U.S. political theme from tariffs, which rattled markets last week, to the president’s supreme court justice choice announced […] More
Broad Commitment to a Process Signed by Trump and Kim but Lacking Many Details
June 12, 2018
There’s been little market reaction to the Trump-Kim talks in Singapore. The dollar is up 0.2% versus the yen and loonie, unchanged against the yuan and Aussie dollar, and down 0.1% vis-a-vis the euro, Swiss franc, kiwi, and sterling. Equities advanced 0.9% in China, 0.6% in India and Hong Kong, and 0.4% in Japan. Stocks […] More
Deepening Trade War Concerns
March 20, 2018
The Fed’s two-day policy review starts today. The first post-meeting press conference of the Jay Powell era and a likely 25-basis point interest rate hike are tomorrow, and investors are anxious to see if there is a signal that four increases this year are more likely than two or three. But all this has been overshadowed […] More
