German PPI

China Uncertainty Weighing on Stocks

November 20, 2019

For some time now, much of the day-to-day swings in financial market sentiment has been attributed to shifting perceptions about U.S.-Sino trade talks, and oftentimes in the absence of  concrete understanding of how those talks are really progressing. It makes one wonder if the trade talks have been a convenient excuse for explaining away normal […] More

Sterling Hovering Lower around $1.30 Amid Brexit Confusion

October 21, 2019

Saturday’s planned Brexit vote in the House of Commons didn’t happen. Instead, MPs requested that Prime Minister Johnson get another deadline extension from the EU. Boris Johnson sent an unsigned letter to the EU that only complained that an extension would be toxic and now seeks to force a Brexit vote today. No response yet […] More

Big Rise in Indian Share Prices, Marginal Change in China’s 1-Year Loan Rate, and Continuing Strain in U.S. Bank Funding Market

September 20, 2019

India’s stock market shot up 5.3%, its greatest one-day rise in a decade, after an announced cut in the country’s corporate tax rate to 25.75% from 30%. Other stock markets around the world showed only modest net movement and mostly upward in direction. The dollar and 10-year sovereign debt yields likewise remained generally steady overnight. […] More

Yesterday’s Rebound in Sovereign Debt Yields Trimmed

August 20, 2019

Ten-year sovereign debt yields slipped Tuesday by five basis points in Germany and the United States, three bps in Great Britain and a basis point in Japan. Yields had dropped very sharply earlier in August but staged a rebound yesterday. Without government stimulus, investors fear a continuing global growth slowdown and possibly even a recession. […] More

NY Fed President Moves Markets Unwittingly

July 19, 2019

John Williams, President of the NY Fed and a permanent member of the FOMC, gave an academic speech asserting that it’s best for central banks to respond quickly in the face of slower economic growth. Investors took his comment as the clearest sign yet that the federal funds rate will be cut at the FOMC […] More

Much To Watch Just before the Holiday

April 18, 2019

The Good Friday/Easter holiday break is ordinarily one of the quietest times for foreign exchange, but investors this year have a great deal of news to absorb before getting away: the promised redacted Mueller Report, preliminary April purchasing manager survey results, British retail sales, Australian labor statistics, German producer prices, Swiss trade, and a central […] More

Financial Market News Cycle Headed by FOMC, Brexit, and U.S./Sino Trade Talks

March 20, 2019

Today’s FOMC announcement at 14:00 EDT (18:00 GMT) will be accompanied by updated forecasts and followed at 14:30 by Chairman Powell’s press conference. Analysts look for scaled-back growth and inflation forecasts, fewer interest rate hikes this year than indicated earlier, and a stop in quantitative tightening. British Prime Minister May is asking for a 3-month […] More

Awaiting FOMC Minutes and Assessing Data Out Earlier Today

February 20, 2019

The FOMC meeting in late January looms as an important inflection point in U.S. monetary policy. The statement released at that time deleted forward guidance that further increases in the target interest rate would be consistent with achieving the Fed’s mandates, instead spoke of patience while determining any future moves, and hinted at changes in […] More

Dollar Softer Ahead of FOMC Decision and After U.S. Current Account Release

December 19, 2018

Despite weaker data and pressure from Trump, the Federal Open Market Committee is expected to announce the fourth rate hike of 2018 later today but to couch such within more accommodative forward guidance regarding likely policy in 2019. The U.S. current account deficit jumped to $124.8 billion in the third quarter from $101.2 billion in […] More

Intensifying Global Move Out of Riskier Assets

October 23, 2018

Investors are getting squeamish for political and economic reasons.  Turkish President Erdogan again asserted that the Saudi killing of Khashoggi was premeditated. U.S. opinion polls suggest that with just 2 weeks left before the mid-term election, the pendulum is swinging back toward the Republicans, suggesting Trump may continue to control all branches of government. The […] More

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