German PPI

Much To Watch Just before the Holiday

April 18, 2019

The Good Friday/Easter holiday break is ordinarily one of the quietest times for foreign exchange, but investors this year have a great deal of news to absorb before getting away: the promised redacted Mueller Report, preliminary April purchasing manager survey results, British retail sales, Australian labor statistics, German producer prices, Swiss trade, and a central […] More

Financial Market News Cycle Headed by FOMC, Brexit, and U.S./Sino Trade Talks

March 20, 2019

Today’s FOMC announcement at 14:00 EDT (18:00 GMT) will be accompanied by updated forecasts and followed at 14:30 by Chairman Powell’s press conference. Analysts look for scaled-back growth and inflation forecasts, fewer interest rate hikes this year than indicated earlier, and a stop in quantitative tightening. British Prime Minister May is asking for a 3-month […] More

Awaiting FOMC Minutes and Assessing Data Out Earlier Today

February 20, 2019

The FOMC meeting in late January looms as an important inflection point in U.S. monetary policy. The statement released at that time deleted forward guidance that further increases in the target interest rate would be consistent with achieving the Fed’s mandates, instead spoke of patience while determining any future moves, and hinted at changes in […] More

Dollar Softer Ahead of FOMC Decision and After U.S. Current Account Release

December 19, 2018

Despite weaker data and pressure from Trump, the Federal Open Market Committee is expected to announce the fourth rate hike of 2018 later today but to couch such within more accommodative forward guidance regarding likely policy in 2019. The U.S. current account deficit jumped to $124.8 billion in the third quarter from $101.2 billion in […] More

Intensifying Global Move Out of Riskier Assets

October 23, 2018

Investors are getting squeamish for political and economic reasons.  Turkish President Erdogan again asserted that the Saudi killing of Khashoggi was premeditated. U.S. opinion polls suggest that with just 2 weeks left before the mid-term election, the pendulum is swinging back toward the Republicans, suggesting Trump may continue to control all branches of government. The […] More

Awaiting U.S. Jobs Report and the Kavanaugh Vote and Watching Sino-U.S. Trade Dispute Intensify

October 5, 2018

Wednesday’s ADP estimate of private employment growth and very low jobless insurance claims suggest a very large jump in U.S. non-farm payroll jobs. The Labor Dept announces the figure at 08:30 EDT. A cloture procedural vote on the Kavanaugh debate mid-day should set the stage for a a full senate confirmation vote Saturday. Best guess […] More

Few Data Releases, Firmer Share Prices and Metals, Steady Oil and Sovereign Debt Yields

August 20, 2018

Dollar/yen is unchanged. The dollar is down 0.3% against the yuan but has risen 0.3% against the euro, 0.2% relative to the Australian dollar, kiwi, and Mexican peso, and 0.1% versus the Swiss franc, loonie and sterling. Equities climbed Monday by 1.9% in Indonesia, 1.5% in Hong Kong, 1.1% in South Korea, 0.9% in India […] More

Trump’s Latest Comment on Tariffs Stirs Up Fresh Market Anxiety

July 20, 2018

Stocks had performed decently in the Pacific Rim, rising overnight by 2.1% in China, 1.0% in Hong Kong, 0.4% in Australia and 0.9% in Taiwan. The Japanese Nikkei had been an exception, drifting down 0.3%. In an interview with CNBC, President Trump signaled a willingness to impose tariffs on China equal to the sum of […] More

Calmer Waters

June 20, 2018

Share prices recovered 1.2% in Japan and Australia, 1.0% in South Korea, 0.7% in India, 0.4% in Hong Kong and 0.3% in China. U.S. and European equities have rebounded more moderately. The spin on a possible trade war is that the harsh rhetoric from officials in the U.S. and China is just threat to secure […] More

Deepening Trade War Concerns

March 20, 2018

The Fed’s two-day policy review starts today. The first post-meeting press conference of the Jay Powell era and a likely 25-basis point interest rate hike  are tomorrow, and investors are anxious to see if there is a signal that four increases this year are more likely than two or three. But all this has been overshadowed […] More

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