German industrial production

Unexpected Leap in U.S. Employment Last Month Dominates Friday’s News

December 6, 2019

U.S. non-farm payroll jobs increased 266k in November. Not since January had NFP risen so sharply, and the rises in September-October were revised upward by a combined 41k as well. Even with the resolution of the GM strike, these figures dwarfed expectations. Moreover, the jobless rate fell back 0.1 percentage point to a multi-decade low […] More

Risk Back On

November 7, 2019

A claim was made by a Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesman that the U.S. and China have agreed to a phased and mutual reduction of trade deficits but only contingent on a trade deal being done. Stock markets are up 0.7% in Germany, 1.0% in Australia, 0.7% in Singapore, 0.6% in Hong Kong, 0.5% in India, […] More

Stocks Hit by Geopolitical Factors

October 8, 2019

Share prices in Germany, France, Italy, and Spain are down over 1.0%, and a lower U.S. open is implied by futures. Brexit talks between the U.K. and EU are seemingly paralyzed, and the U.S. blacklisting of Chinese tech firms over treatment of Uighur Muslims underscores trade tensions between the the two countries. Share prices in […] More

Monetary Policy Reviews, an Intensifying U.S. Political Crisis, Trade Talks, and Some Data Surprises

May 8, 2019

Central bank officials in New Zealand and Malaysia cut their interest rates, while those in Thailand maintained an “accommodative but appropriate” 1.75% rate level. Thailand’s growth outlook was revised downward, but the inflation prognosis wasn’t changed. New Zealand’s official cash rate was lowered 25 basis points to 1.5%. Such had been 1.75% since November 2016. […] More

Jobs Day in America

April 5, 2019

The dollar marked time overnight as investors await today’s release of U.S. March labor market data. The dollar slipped 0.2% against the euro but moved even less on balance against other key currencies. The price of gold, $1,294.10 per ounce, also is unchanged from Thursday’s close. U.S. employment growth in the prior two months was […] More

Some Weak Data from Japan and Germany and No End to U.S. Government Shutdown

January 8, 2019

Consumer confidence in Japan ended 2018 at a 25-month low. A 1.9% plunge in German industrial production in November has raised the risk of a second consecutive quarterly contraction of real GDP in Europe’s largest economy. GDP fell 0.2% in the third quarter, and industrial output posted back-to-back month-on-month declines of 0.8% in October and […] More

Dollar Down Broadly after Mixed U.S. Election Result

November 7, 2018

The dollar traded down overnight by 1.7% against the kiwi, 1.0% versus the Australian dollar, 0.7% relative to the euro and Swiss franc, 0.5% vis-a-vis the peso and sterling, 0.4% against the loonie, 0.3% versus the yen and 0.1% against the yuan. Share prices fell in Asia but have risen in Europe. Market losses totaled […] More

More Risk Aversion Lends Support to Dollar

October 8, 2018

The dollar has risen today by 0.8% against the Chinese yuan, 0.6% relative to sterling, 0.4% versus the euro, 0.3% vis-a-vis the loonie, and 0.1% against the Swiss franc and Mexican peso. Japan (Sports Day) and Canada (Thanksgiving) are observing holiday closures, but China reopened for business following a one-week observance of the Communist Revolution […] More

In Suspense Ahead of Tariff Announcements

September 7, 2018

President Trump is expected to announce a huge ramp-up in tariffs next week, especially on imports of Chinese goods, and China will no to retaliate in kind. Some pundits worry this escalating trade war will hammer U.S. equities, depress U.S. growth, lift U.S. inflation, and further incentivize the FOMC to raise interest rates. Stocks in […] More

U.S. Jobs Day but That’s Been Overshadowed by Re-escalating Trade Tensions

April 6, 2018

Forecasters anticipate the U.S. March labor market data will show creation of almost 200K jobs, a further small dip in the unemployment rate, and a pickup of hourly wage earnings growth. Share prices and commodity prices fell overnight in response to fresh concern that the U.S.-Sino trade dispute cannot be negotiated away. President Trump has […] More

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