German industrial orders

Message of Jackson Hole Didn’t Stick

September 6, 2016

Speeches and various comments emerging from the Jackson Hole Symposium late last month had been coordinated to plant in investors’ minds the notion that the Fed would be raising its interest rate sooner than assumed and that two hikes before yearend in fact remained possible. The shift in market psychology was only fleeting, however, and […] More

Markets Moved by Fed Rhetoric and British Opinion Surveys

June 6, 2016

With less than three weeks until the U.K. voter referendum on whether to remain part of the European Union, two surveys showed more people wanting to exit than to stay, although the margin was narrow in each case.  Sterling has fallen 0.7% against the dollar, but the Ftse is 1.0% stronger. Commodities are up in […] More

Mark Time March Ahead of U.S. Jobs Report

February 5, 2016

In a week that’s seen the dollar drop its most in several years, the U.S. currency shows scant net change overnight, dipping 0.1% versus the loonie, Swissie and kiwi while edging 0.1% higher against the yen, euro and Aussie dollar.  The greenback has gained 0.2% relative to sterling and is unchanged versus the yuan. Equities […] More

Intensifying Market Volatility

January 7, 2016

What’s hot:  Traditional hard currencies like the yen, euro and Swiss franc.  Also Treasuries and other sovereign debt.  Also gold. What’s cold:  Oil and other commodities.  Commodity currencies, the renminbi, sterling and the dollar.  Equities and other risky assets. Market movements: The dollar has appreciated 1.2% against the Australian dollar, 0.6% versus the yuan, 0.5% […] More

Intensifying Market Volatility

January 7, 2016

What’s hot:  Traditional hard currencies like the yen, euro and Swiss franc.  Also Treasuries and other sovereign debt.  Also gold. What’s cold:  Oil and other commodities.  Commodity currencies, the renminbi, sterling and the dollar.  Equities and other risky assets. Market movements: The dollar has appreciated 1.2% against the Australian dollar, 0.6% versus the yuan, 0.5% […] More

Winding Down a Rollercoaster of a Week

December 4, 2015

The first week of December already had included weaker-than-expected monetary support from the ECB, weaker U.S. purchasing managers indices, mounting rhetorical evidence that the federal funds rate will be hiked this  month, softer core inflation in the eurozone, public remarks from central bank chiefs in the U.S., Britain, Euroland, Japan, Australia, and Canada, and a […] More

An Informing Day with Some Surprises

November 5, 2015

U.S. labor productivity unexpectedly rose last quarter and substantially so at that.  A gain of 1.6% on top of a 3.5% second-quarter increase resulted in a significantly smaller quarter-over-quarter 1.4% climb in unit labor costs.  Nonetheless, the big productivity picture remains soft, with a rise of just 0.4% between 3Q14 and 3Q15 versus 0.8% in […] More

Rate Hike in the U.K. Unlikely Until 2016

August 6, 2015

Sterling fell 0.6% overnight against the dollar, which otherwise shows gains of 0.2% versus the Swiss franc and Aussie dollar but losses of 0.4% relative to the kiwi and 0.1% vis-a-vis the loonie and euro.  The yen and yuan are unchanged against the dollar. Share prices declined 1.1% in Australia, 0.9% in Indonesia and China, […] More

Markets React Uneasily to Yesterday’s Remarks by Fed Chair Janet Yellen

May 7, 2015

The big uncertainty for some time has been whether markets and economies could handle a rising trend in the federal funds rate and whether inability to do so might deter Fed officials from getting the policy stance to where it wants.  The gist of Yellen’s remarks on Wednesday is that there is no alternative to […] More

Euro Weakened Further

January 8, 2015

The dollar is trading currently near its new peaks of $1.1754 per euro and CHF 1.0218.  The dollar is now 0.7% higher against those currencies than at Wednesday’s close.  The dollar also rose 0.6% against the yen and 0.3% versus sterling but has fallen by 0.3% relative to the Australian dollar and 0.1% against the […] More

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