German industrial orders

The Fickle Nature of Investor Anxiety about a Trade War

April 5, 2018

Flip-flopping attitudes about the likelihood of a full-fledged intensifying trade war between China and the United States continues to be a big source of day-to-day changes in market behavior. There was panic earlier this week. Today, investors believe Trump and Jinping will negotiate a truce and forestall a trade meltdown. One problem with such optimism […] More

More Evidence of Strong Growth in the Euro Area

January 8, 2018

Economic sentiment in the euro area leaped 1.6 points to a December reading of 116.0, best since October 2000. Sentiment improved across the board — industry, households, services, retail, and construction. A separate measure, the business climate index, rose 1.7 points to the best score ever in this data series dating back to 1985. The […] More

Stocks Continue Week’s Retreat

December 6, 2017

Equities sold off 2.9% in Hong Kong, 2.0% in Japan, 1.6% in Taiwan, 1.4% in South Korea 1.2% in Singapore and 0.7% in New Zealand. Losses today in Europe so far amount to 1.0% in Germany, 0.5% in France and Spain, 0.4% in Italy and 0.3% in Switzerland. Technology has been hit hardest. With no […] More

Waiting for U.S. and Canadian Labor Market Statistical Releases

October 6, 2017

Investors await the U.S. Labor Department jobs report for September at 08:30 EDT, knowing that it will be badly distorted by the hurricanes that hit Texas and Florida. Canadian labor market figures are due also. Concern over Spain’s uncertain political tension continues to fester, tempering enthusiasm that otherwise would arise from upbeat data like today’s […] More

Markets Less Fearful

June 7, 2017

The troubled Banco Popular in Spain is being acquired by Banco Santander, easing concerns about the banking system in Euroland’s fourth largest economy. Donald Trump announced the nomination of a former assistant attorney general from the Bush43 administration, Christopher Wray, to be FBI Director. The timing of this revelation one day before the highly awaited […] More

Euro and Ezone Stocks Fall Despite Big Win for Macron

May 8, 2017

The centrist candidate for president of France, Macron, beat Le Pen by a rough margin of two to one.  Stock markets in Asia closed higher, but European markets are down 1.0% in France, 0.9% in Spain, 0.5% in Italy, and 0.3% in Germany. The dollar, moreover, rose 0.5% against the euro, 0.7% relative to the […] More

New Turn of Events on Several Fronts

April 6, 2017

At an unscheduled Czech National Bank policy meeting, the 27 koruna per euro ceiling imposed since November 2013 was lifted, and the currency strengthened marginally over 1.0% in response. The backdrop for the change is near-target inflation and sustaining growth. A discretionary role for intervention on an as-needed basis has been retained. Chinese President Xi […] More

Dollar Mostly Higher but Only Slightly So

March 7, 2017

The dollar shows overnight gains of 0.3% against the Swiss franc and sterling, 0.2% relative to the kiwi, and 0.1% vis-a-vis the yen, loonie and euro. The dollar fell 0.5% against the peso and 0.2% versus the Australian currency. The yuan is steady after unexpected news that Chinese international reserves, which in January dipped under […] More

Political Concerns Outweigh Data Strength

February 6, 2017

France’s National Front’s pre-presidential election manifesto was released, calling for France to leave the European Union and for tighter restraints on immigration. It was always a bit peculiar how an investment community prior to the U.S. election had been publicly worried about the Republican candidate’s “drain the swamp” promise but converted to true believers afterward. […] More

Some Guarded Relief as Stocks Rally around the World

November 7, 2016

Knowing that it won’t be over until it’s over, global stocks nonetheless rallied on yesterday’s FBI announcement that the investigation of emails found on Anthony Wiener’s computer did not change the original conclusion from July that Hillary Clinton did not commit any criminal acts warranting the Bureau to press charges against her. Share prices closed […] More

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