German current account

Investors Excited by Vaccine Trial News and U.S. Election Results

November 9, 2020

Stock markets are rallying on two pieces of news. Initial results of Pfizer’s large-scale trials of a Covid-19 vaccine have reportedly demonstrated 90% effectiveness among people without a prior condition. Donald Trump has lost his bid for a second term as president, but Republicans appear to have retained control of the senate. This combination of […] More

The Debate, Central Bank News, and More Data to Digest

October 8, 2020

Any reaction to the single U.S. vice presidential debate last night has already been squashed by just-breaking news regarding the second presidential debate scheduled for October 15th in Miami. The debate commission decided that debate should be held virtually rather than in person inasmuch as President Trump and many of his advisers have Covid, and […] More

A Many-Sided Investor Gloom

September 8, 2020

The U.S. Labor Day holiday pause didn’t restore stability to tech stocks, which continue to look overpriced and are set to fall sharply again this Tuesday. Talks between the EU and British government over a post-Brexit trade deal and between U.S. Republicans and Democrats over a fiscal stimulus package remain totally stalled, and it looks […] More

Covid Risk and Political Uncertainty on the Market’s Mind

July 9, 2020

The global count of Covid-19 cases rose 216 thousand in the past 24 hours to roughly 12.2 million. In that span, there was a record 62 thousand rise in U.S. reported cases, even as President Trump threatened repercussions to school districts that do not reopen in the fall. The Covid death count stands just above […] More

Markets Looking Beyond Today’s Jobs Report

May 8, 2020

America’s imposed business shutdown will be reflected in today’s April jobs report, which analysts expect to show a 22 million dive in jobs and an unemployment rate that tops 15%. This will be the weakest labor market data since the Second World War, and ironically today marks the 75th anniversary of the end of fighting […] More

Several Data Releases but Little Market Movement

December 9, 2019

Markets are mostly marking time ahead of numerous central bank meetings this week and Britain’s momentous election on Thursday. The dollar is trading very near its closing levels last Friday. The price of gold is 0.2% firmer. That  of WTI oil  is 0.5% softer. Stock markets closed 0.3% higher in Japan, South Korea and Australia […] More

Dollar and Sovereign Debt Yields Firm… Commodity and Share Prices Lower

November 8, 2019

The dollar appreciated overnight by 0.6% against the kiwi, 0.3% versus the Australian dollar, 0.2% relative to the loonie, yuan, and peso, and 0.1% vis-a-vis the yen, euro, sterling and Swiss franc. The 10-year gilt and U.S. Treasury yields extended their rise by another three basis points. Comparable sovereign debt yields in Italy, Greece, Portugal […] More

Dollar and Yen Fell in Tandem

October 10, 2019

The dollar and yen dropped overnight by 0.6% against the New Zealand and Australian currencies, 0.5% relative to the euro, 0.3% versus the Swiss franc and peso, 0.2% relative to the loonie and sterling and 0.1% against the yuan. Ten-year U.S. Treasury and Japanese JGB yields are unchanged, whereas their German and British counterparts increased […] More

Tariff War

May 10, 2019

President Trump made good on his threat to lift tariffs on $200 billion of imports from China, and Beijing officials promise to answer in kind even as talks continue. Trump erroneously expects the U.S. economy to at worst react neutrally to an escalated tariff war, but that delusion only partly explains his likely motivation. The […] More

Global Stocks Down after Trump/Xi Meeting Scrapped

February 8, 2019

The revelation that President Trump will not be meeting with Chinese President Xi before March 1 dampened hopes for a trade deal, weighed on general concerns regarding global growth, and sent share prices down 2.0% in Japan, 1.2% in South Korea and India, 1.0% in Spain, and 0.9% in Germany. The Dow and S&P fell […] More

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