German current account

A Many-Sided Investor Gloom

September 8, 2020

The U.S. Labor Day holiday pause didn’t restore stability to tech stocks, which continue to look overpriced and are set to fall sharply again this Tuesday. Talks between the EU and British government over a post-Brexit trade deal and between U.S. Republicans and Democrats over a fiscal stimulus package remain totally stalled, and it looks […] More

Covid Risk and Political Uncertainty on the Market’s Mind

July 9, 2020

The global count of Covid-19 cases rose 216 thousand in the past 24 hours to roughly 12.2 million. In that span, there was a record 62 thousand rise in U.S. reported cases, even as President Trump threatened repercussions to school districts that do not reopen in the fall. The Covid death count stands just above […] More

Markets Looking Beyond Today’s Jobs Report

May 8, 2020

America’s imposed business shutdown will be reflected in today’s April jobs report, which analysts expect to show a 22 million dive in jobs and an unemployment rate that tops 15%. This will be the weakest labor market data since the Second World War, and ironically today marks the 75th anniversary of the end of fighting […] More

Several Data Releases but Little Market Movement

December 9, 2019

Markets are mostly marking time ahead of numerous central bank meetings this week and Britain’s momentous election on Thursday. The dollar is trading very near its closing levels last Friday. The price of gold is 0.2% firmer. That  of WTI oil  is 0.5% softer. Stock markets closed 0.3% higher in Japan, South Korea and Australia […] More

Dollar and Sovereign Debt Yields Firm… Commodity and Share Prices Lower

November 8, 2019

The dollar appreciated overnight by 0.6% against the kiwi, 0.3% versus the Australian dollar, 0.2% relative to the loonie, yuan, and peso, and 0.1% vis-a-vis the yen, euro, sterling and Swiss franc. The 10-year gilt and U.S. Treasury yields extended their rise by another three basis points. Comparable sovereign debt yields in Italy, Greece, Portugal […] More

Dollar and Yen Fell in Tandem

October 10, 2019

The dollar and yen dropped overnight by 0.6% against the New Zealand and Australian currencies, 0.5% relative to the euro, 0.3% versus the Swiss franc and peso, 0.2% relative to the loonie and sterling and 0.1% against the yuan. Ten-year U.S. Treasury and Japanese JGB yields are unchanged, whereas their German and British counterparts increased […] More

Tariff War

May 10, 2019

President Trump made good on his threat to lift tariffs on $200 billion of imports from China, and Beijing officials promise to answer in kind even as talks continue. Trump erroneously expects the U.S. economy to at worst react neutrally to an escalated tariff war, but that delusion only partly explains his likely motivation. The […] More

Global Stocks Down after Trump/Xi Meeting Scrapped

February 8, 2019

The revelation that President Trump will not be meeting with Chinese President Xi before March 1 dampened hopes for a trade deal, weighed on general concerns regarding global growth, and sent share prices down 2.0% in Japan, 1.2% in South Korea and India, 1.0% in Spain, and 0.9% in Germany. The Dow and S&P fell […] More

Today’s Menu: Trade Data and Talks, Central Bank Meetings, and a Continuing U.S. Government Shutdown

January 9, 2019

Equity markets continued to rally after U.S.-Sino lower-level trade talks extended to a third day. Although no details about possible progress were revealed, investors took the unexpected third day of negotiations as a good sign that the dispute can be settled by March and avert a re-escalation of mutual big tariffs by the two countries […] More

Dollar and Sovereign Debt Yields Rise, while Equities Slip Further

October 9, 2018

Markets remain risk averse today. The dollar appreciated 0.4% against the euro, 0.3% versus the loonie, peso and kiwi, 0.2% relative to the Swiss franc, Aussie dollar, and sterling, and 0.1% vis-a-vis the yen. Share prices fell 1.3% in Japan, 1.0% in Australia, 0.7% in New Zealand, 0.6% in Indonesia, and 0.5% in Singapore and […] More

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