German and Euroland ZEW expectations
Hotter-than-Predicted U.S. CPI Data Elicit Adverse Market Reaction
February 13, 2024
U.S. consumer price inflation unexpectedly remained above 3.0% in January. A 0.3% monthly increase was the most since September, and the 12-month rate of increased slowed less sharply than forecast, returning to November’s 5-month low of 3.1% but showing no net improvement since 3.0% recorded last June. U.S. core consumer prices, which exclude food and […] More
Choppy Markets and Only a Few Data Reports
October 17, 2023
Investors are sifting through cross currents, worried about what may evolve in the Mideast but heartened by early corporate earnings news and hopes that central bank interest rates may be close to peak. Philadelphia Fed District President Harker opined that an additional interest rate hike now would be ill-advised. Equities rose in the Pacific Rim […] More
Wait and See
September 12, 2023
Financial markets are marking time ahead of tomorrow’s ECB rate announcement and press conference and the release of U.S. consumer price, producer price and import price data later this week. In spite of speculation that the peak in central bank interest rates may be close at hand, there have been adverse surprises regarding corporate earnings. […] More
Several Significant Developments for Investors to Process
August 15, 2023
Chinese July data have deepened concerns about the world’s second largest economy. Weaker-than-anticipated on-year growth in China’s retail sales of 2.5% was down from 8.2% in the first half of 2023. Industrial production growth of 3.7% year-on-year also undershot expectations. The unemployment rate edged up to a 4-month high of 5.3%, and fixed asset investment […] More
Global Equities Extend Rise
July 11, 2023
Stock markets in the Pacific Rim rose 1.5% in Taiwan and Australia, 1.7% in South Korea, 1.0% in Hong Kong and Indonesia and 0.6% in China. An exception was a 0.3% dip in Japan’s Nikkei-225. The British FTSE thus far has also slipped 0.3%, but continental European share prices and U.S. stock futures are in […] More
Some Surprises But Not All in Same Direction
April 18, 2023
Chinese data reported this Tuesday exceeded expectations, but officials cautioned that solid recovery isn’t yet firmly entrenched. Real GDP last quarter rose 2.2% on quarter, and the prior quarter’s change was revised to an increase of 0.6% from the earlier estimated zero percent quarterly growth rate. Year-on-year growth of 4.5% in 1Q was up from […] More
Fed’s Two-Day Policy Review Begins with Market Consensus Fixed on Likely 25-Basis Point Interest Rate Increase
March 21, 2023
Steps by big banks to protect vulnerable mid-sized banks and by central banks to ensure ample liquidity have calmed world financial markets even on this day before an expected additional Federal Reserve interest rate hike. The dollar and yen, which prospered from safe haven-seeking capital inflows have settled back. The U.S. currency fell overnight by […] More
Case for Central Bank Authorities to Pause Tightening
February 21, 2023
With markets in the United States and Canada set to reopen following their 3-day weekends, ten-year sovereign debt yields have climbed today by 12 basis points in the U.K., 7 bps in the United States and Italy, and 4 basis points in Germany, France and Spain. The yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond is […] More
Fresh Developments Driving Investor Hopes
November 15, 2022
Equities in the Pacific Rim rose by 4.1% in Hong Kong, 2.6% in Taiwan, and 1.6% in China as yesterday’s talks between the presidents of the United States and China went as well as could have been expected considering their government’s significant differences. The South Korean Kospi rose only 0.2%, and Japan’s Nikkei dipped 0.1%. […] More
Equity Rebound Extended and Dollar Up Somewhat Too
October 18, 2022
With China’s 20th National Congress still ongoing, officials there elected to delay today’s scheduled release of GDP, industrial production, retail sales, unemployment and fixed asset investment. Investors await U.S. industrial production and the National Association of Homebuilders’ housing index, but otherwise it’s been another light day from a data release standpoint. Appetite for risk was […] More
