U.S. Versus Foreign Economic Growth: 2010 From 2007

September 14, 2009

The latest issue of The Economist publishes results from the September and newest monthly survey of forecasters.  Projected GDP growth in 2010 has been revised higher for a wide cross-section of economies.  Revisions amount to  0.6 percentage points (ppts) for the case of the euro area, 0.5 ppts for the United States, 0.3 ppts for […] More

Expected Real GDP Growth in Major Advanced Economies

August 10, 2009

The results of a new monthly survey of 13 esteemed forecasting institutions were published in the latest issue of The Economist, and the United States enjoys a commanding edge over most other G-7 economies despite being the economy that triggered the financial crisis and global recession.  Participants in the survey project an average positive growth […] More

Inflation and Monetary Policy

August 4, 2009

This coming Sunday will mark two years since the global financial crisis began.  One educational benefit of this trauma has been to clarify what it means for central bankers to promote price stability.  For certain central banks, such is the only macroeconomic objective of monetary policy, although even in those single-purpose frameworks, price stability can […] More

July in Figures

August 1, 2009

A frequent risk assumption trade in July boosted equities, depressed the dollar, and produced mixed interest rate movements.  Oil prices had fallen around $10 by the 14th but recovered just about all its losses by month-end.  Gold recouped half its June decline. 10-Yr Yield 06/30/09 07/31/09 Chg vs End-June U.S. 3.53% 3.48% -5 Basis Points […] More

The Consumer's Burden

July 28, 2009

Not long ago, house price stability was widely considered the main condition to end the U.S. recession on a sustaining basis.  Today’s drop in equities suggests that stable house prices are no longer a sufficient or even the most important developments that is required.  Today’s Case-Shiller report reflected much more improvement than anticipated.  The composite […] More

A Question For Fed Chairman Bernanke

July 21, 2009

Chairman Bernanke used its House testimony today to lay out conditions that would compel the Fed to tighten monetary policy, a diminishing output gap, better labor market conditions, and evidence either of rising expected inflation or rising actual inflation.  By framing the answer in conditional terms, analysts did not get a quantitative answer on the […] More

Global Recession Produced Collapsing Trade Flows

July 15, 2009

Collapsing is not my word.  It’s how a report released today by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development chose to characterize commercial trade flows during the final quarter of 2008 and first quarter of this year.  Nominal exports of goods and services from this 30-nation bloc of advanced economies dropped 13.4% in the first […] More

Comparative First-Quarter Growth

June 2, 2009

Advanced economies contracted sharply but not uniformly so last quarter.  In a comparison of the United States, Japan, Euroland, Britain and Canada — which comprise the Group of Seven — Japan suffered the largest drop in real GDP (15.2% seasonally adjusted annual rate), followed by Euroland (9.8% saar), Britain (7.3% saar), the U.S. (5.7% saar) […] More

Recession: Is The End Really in Sight?

May 28, 2009

Given the failure of Japan, Canada, and Europe to decouple from the United States, the answer for most advanced economies rests with America.  Emerging economies, on the other hand, are demonstrating greater independence from the U.S. business cycle. A view emerged this spring that a U.S. recovery will occur sooner than 2010 or even late […] More

G-4 Real GDP Growth

May 21, 2009

The table below documents annualized rates of real GDP contraction between the third quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 and for the four quarters to 1Q09.  These comparisons show a three-speed recession.  Japan has weakened most severely, and the United States had the mildest drop-off, if one can call drops of 6.2% […] More