G7
CPI Inflation in the Group of Seven and Implications For the Fed's Exit Strategy
November 3, 2009
According to price data released by the OECD today, on-year inflation in the Group of Seven (U.S., Euroland, Japan, Britain and Canada) printed at negative 1.0% but ranged widely between minus 2.2% in Japan and plus 1.1% in Britain. The United States registered the biggest percentage point decline between the year to September 2008 and [...] More
Economic Recovery in the U.S., Euroland, Japan, and Britain
October 29, 2009
The data from major advanced economies continues to inspire less hope than what China and other developing economies are reporting. Aspects of the 3.5% rise of U.S. GDP last quarter look too good to last. Slightly over two-thirds of the increase resulted from consumption of durable goods (much of which reflects the expired cash for clunkers [...] More
G-7 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers Still Issuing Statements
October 3, 2009
One mystery was clarified after G-7 finance ministers and central bankers met in Istanbul today — they did release a written statement, the gist of which is included in the updated chronology of G-7 statements over the last eight years shown below. The statement accomplishes three tasks. The initial purpose of these meetings was to [...] More
U.S. Versus Foreign Economic Growth: 2010 From 2007
September 14, 2009
The latest issue of The Economist publishes results from the September and newest monthly survey of forecasters. Projected GDP growth in 2010 has been revised higher for a wide cross-section of economies. Revisions amount to 0.6 percentage points (ppts) for the case of the euro area, 0.5 ppts for the United States, 0.3 ppts for [...] More
Expected Real GDP Growth in Major Advanced Economies
August 10, 2009
The results of a new monthly survey of 13 esteemed forecasting institutions were published in the latest issue of The Economist, and the United States enjoys a commanding edge over most other G-7 economies despite being the economy that triggered the financial crisis and global recession. Participants in the survey project an average positive growth [...] More
Inflation and Monetary Policy
August 4, 2009
This coming Sunday will mark two years since the global financial crisis began. One educational benefit of this trauma has been to clarify what it means for central bankers to promote price stability. For certain central banks, such is the only macroeconomic objective of monetary policy, although even in those single-purpose frameworks, price stability can [...] More
July in Figures
August 1, 2009
A frequent risk assumption trade in July boosted equities, depressed the dollar, and produced mixed interest rate movements. Oil prices had fallen around $10 by the 14th but recovered just about all its losses by month-end. Gold recouped half its June decline. 10-Yr Yield 06/30/09 07/31/09 Chg vs End-June U.S. 3.53% 3.48% -5 Basis Points Germany 3.39% 3.28% -11 Japan 1.35% 1.42% +7 U.K. 3.69% 3.80% +11 Canada 3.36% 3.47% +11 3-month euros U.S. 0.60% 0.48% -12 Basis Points Euroland 1.10% 0.86% -24 Japan 0.46% 0.41% +5 U.K. 1.19% 0.89% -30 Canada 0.60% 0.60% 0 Swiss 0.40% 0.36% -4 FX Pct Chg in US$ EUR/$ 1.4022 1.4250 -1.6% $/JPY 96.36 94.67 -1.8% $/CHF 1.0867 1.0690 -1.6% GBP/$ 1.6448 1.6700 -1.5% AUD/$ 0.8053 0.8357 -3.6% NZ$/$ 0.6452 0.6617 -2.5% $/CAD 1.1632 1.0784 -7.3% Equities Nasdaq 1835 1979 +7.8% Djia 8477 9172 +8.2% Dax 4809 5332 +10.9% Nikkei 9958 10357 +4.0% Ftse 4249 4608 +8.4% Canada TSE 10375 10787 +4.0% Swiss [...] More
The Consumer's Burden
July 28, 2009
Not long ago, house price stability was widely considered the main condition to end the U.S. recession on a sustaining basis. Today’s drop in equities suggests that stable house prices are no longer a sufficient or even the most important developments that is required. Today’s Case-Shiller report reflected much more improvement than anticipated. The composite [...] More
A Question For Fed Chairman Bernanke
July 21, 2009
Chairman Bernanke used its House testimony today to lay out conditions that would compel the Fed to tighten monetary policy, a diminishing output gap, better labor market conditions, and evidence either of rising expected inflation or rising actual inflation. By framing the answer in conditional terms, analysts did not get a quantitative answer on the [...] More
Global Recession Produced Collapsing Trade Flows
July 15, 2009
Collapsing is not my word. It’s how a report released today by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development chose to characterize commercial trade flows during the final quarter of 2008 and first quarter of this year. Nominal exports of goods and services from this 30-nation bloc of advanced economies dropped 13.4% in the first [...] More
