foreign exchange

November in Figures

November 30, 2016

World financial markets spent most of November grappling with the implications of Donald Trump’s unexpected victory and the Republican Party’s coming control of the executive, legislative and judicial branches of the federal government, as well as most state governorships and legislatures. A possible December hike of the federal funds target became a virtual certainty after […] More

Super Dollar at the Expense of Bonds, Commodities and Now Even Stocks

November 18, 2016

The dollar hit overnight highs of JPY 110.94 and 1.0581 per euro. The dollar climbed 0.9% against the loonie, 0.4% relative to the Australian currency, and 0.2% versus sterling. The dollar advanced 0.4% against the Mexican peso in spite of another 50-basis point increase in the Bank of Mexico’s overnight interest rate to 5.25%. That rate […] More

Broad Dollar Gains and Sovereign Debt Price Losses… Oil Lower Too

November 16, 2016

Nothing about the Donald Trump phenomenon is playing out as pundits expected. The political talking heads repeatedly underestimated his victory chances through the Republican primaries and general election. And now market developments are fooling the economic prognosticators. The dollar is super-charged, rising overnight by 1.7% against the ruble, 1.2% against the Australian dollar and Polish […] More

Morning After or Eve of Destruction

November 7, 2016

The winner of Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election remains very much in doubt. Final opinion polls on nationwide popular voter preferences give Clinton a far thinner lead than the 75% likelihood that London bookies had attached to British voters rejecting the proposal to leave the EU on the day of that referendum vote 4-1/2 months ago. One wonders […] More

Financial Markets Don’t Like Strongmen Rulers

November 4, 2016

The Turkish lira fell over 1.0% in response to the arrest of Kurdish lawmakers who oppose the authoritarian Prime Minister Erdogan. Global stocks are down as U.S. opinion polls show that the possibility of Donald Trump winning the presidency has to be taken seriously. Share prices in the Pacific Rim fell 1.8% in South Korea, […] More

October in Figures

November 1, 2016

The dollar rose in October especially versus sterling. Long-term interest rates increased everywhere, not just in the U.S. where monetary policy tightening is expected. The 10-year JGB remained below its target of zero, however. Short-term interest rates edged up marginally. Equities in October were mixed, and both the price of gold and oil slipped about […] More

Optimistic Mood

October 25, 2016

Commodity prices are higher, led by metals. WTI oil and Comex gold climbed 0.6% and 0.5% to $50.84 per barrel and $1,269.80 per ounce. Markets are discounting a higher likelihood of a fed funds hike this year, but investors increasingly believe the U.S. economy can tolerate such action. U.S. political opinion polls continue to indicate […] More

Many Factors Weighing on World Stocks

October 13, 2016

Share prices around the Pacific Basin fell 1.6% in Hong Kong and India, 0.9% in South Korea, 0.7% in Australia, 0.5% in Indonesia, and 0.4% in Taiwan and Japan. Equities in Europe are so far showing losses of 1.6% in Greece, 1.3% in France, Germany and Italy, 1.1% in Spain, 0.9% in Switzerland, and 0.7% […] More

September and the Third Quarter in Figures

October 1, 2016

Ten-year sovereign debt yields remained very low last quarter. British gilts dropped over a half percentage point for the second consecutive quarter, helped by a halving the Bank of England’s policy interest rate and resumption of quantitative stimulus there. The dollar fell mostly last quarter, but the loss against sterling was trimmed in September. Equities […] More

Share Prices Down in Europe as Week Draws to a Close

September 16, 2016

Equities have fallen 1.6% in Italy, 0.6% in Spain, 0.5% in Germany, 0.4% in France, 0.3% in Switzerland, and 0.2% in Greece.  The British Ftse is flat, and stocks earlier rose 1.1% in Australia, 0.9% in New Zealand, 0.8% in Singapore, and 0.7% in Japan and India. Many Asian markets — for instance, China, Taiwan, […] More