foreign exchange

A Noteworthy Week to End with the Release of U.S. Monthly Labor Market Data and the Start of Trump’s 11-Day Trip to Asia

November 3, 2017

Over the past week, Republican lawmakers pressed hard in their quest to pass a major tax cut by Christmas. Jerome Powell, viewed widely as a continuity choice, was nominated to be the next Federal Reserve Chairman. The Bank of England raised its interest rate for the first time since July 2007. The latest British purchasing […] More

October in Figures

November 1, 2017

Whereas September had experienced upward pressure on long-term interest rates, October had a slight downward bias. The rhetoric after central bank meetings in Japan and Euroland was a bit more dovish than expected, leaving an impression there will not be an initial interest rate hike in 2018 by either. Stock markets performed will during October, […] More

September and Third Quarter in Figures

October 1, 2017

The Fed, ECB, and BOJ did not change monetary policy during the third quarter, so short-term interest rates were very stable. But more hawkish talk from the Fed and ECB, a surprise Bank of Canada rate hike, and higher British inflation lifted longer-term rates in those economies during the quarter. A mixed dollar in August […] More

British Inflation Marching to a Faster Beat

September 12, 2017

The U.K. is not displaying the subdued inflation found in most other developed economies. The August batch of British price data revealed a 0.6% monthly advance in total consumer prices and an acceleration of its 12-month increase to 2.9% from 2.6% in both June and July. Core CPI inflation rose 0.3 percentage points (ppts) to […] More

August in Figures

August 31, 2017

Ten-year sovereign debt yields feel pretty much in tandem during August except in Japan where the drop was less sizable but consistent with the Bank of Japan’s target. Short-term interest rates remained low and well anchored by ultra-loose monetary policy stances. The dropped significantly against the Chinese yuan and marginally against traditional “hard currencies” like […] More

Dollar Possibly on Course for a Perfect Storm of Uncertain Timing

July 10, 2017

A term often mentioned today in assessments of the Hamburg Summit has been the G19. With the United States delegation marching to its own drumbeat, the other nineteen governments agreed to coordinate on a host of policies for their mutual benefit and to proceed in effect as a Group of Nineteen. If the U.S. renounces […] More

June and the Second Quarter in Figures

July 1, 2017

As in the previous quarter, a slide in the price of oil was a key development during the second quarter, and half of this move occurred in June. Gold also lost value both in June and the whole quarter. A second theme of the period was a shifting view about future monetary policies in the […] More

April in Figures

April 29, 2017

In April, ten-year sovereign debt yields fell a little more sharply in the United States than other economies, but the dollar was mixed, falling against the euro, sterling, and Swiss franc but not the yen. The dollar advanced solidly against commodity-sensitive currencies, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil slipped back below the $50 per barrel […] More

Fed Policy Still a Huge Influence on Dollar

February 21, 2017

The dollar appreciated broadly after the three-day U.S. holiday weekend despite ongoing worries about U.S. policies and strong preliminary February purchasing manager survey results for Euroland and Japan. The prime dollar mover came from remarks by Philadelphia Fed President Harker that a rate increase is possible as soon as the FOMC’s March meeting. Dollar overnight gains […] More

Stronger Dollar and a Few Central Bank Policy Meetings

February 7, 2017

The theme of tightening Fed policy and looser U.S. fiscal policy returned to the fore, lifting the dollar overnight by 1.1% against the euro, 0.8% versus the Swiss franc, loonie and sterling, 0.6% relative to the yen, 0.5% against the Australian dollar, 0.4% versus the Mexican peso and 0.3% vis-a-vis the New Zealand dollar and […] More

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