FOMC

More Brexit Confusion, Brighter Data, and an FOMC Meeting

March 19, 2019

The dollar stayed in neutral gear overnight, dipping 0.1% against the euro, sterling, and kiwi, holding flat relative to the yen, yuan and Swiss franc, and nudging up 0.1% vis-a-vis the Aussie dollar. Slightly bigger dollar dips occurred of 0.4% relative to the loonie and 0.2% versus the Mexican peso. Asian stock markets likewise didn’t […] More

Awaiting FOMC Minutes and Assessing Data Out Earlier Today

February 20, 2019

The FOMC meeting in late January looms as an important inflection point in U.S. monetary policy. The statement released at that time deleted forward guidance that further increases in the target interest rate would be consistent with achieving the Fed’s mandates, instead spoke of patience while determining any future moves, and hinted at changes in […] More

Brexit Mess, An FOMC Announcement, and Some Weak Data Reports

January 30, 2019

Last night’s British parliamentary votes produced an ill-advised win for Prime Minister May, rejecting a no-deal option or a second referendum in favor of authorization for the prime minister to attempt a renegotiation of parts of her agreement with the rest of the EU. Those governments have repeatedly ruled out renegotiation, so a no-deal Brexit […] More

Political Fireworks but Markets Calm, Awaiting FOMC Announcement

November 8, 2018

U.S. Attorney General Sessions is out and will be replaced by someone critical of the Mueller investigation. President Trump wasted little time adopting a very confrontational stance to the Democratic majority in the House. The FOMC is not expected to hike interest rates today. No press conference is scheduled, but expectations are widespread that there […] More

Marking Time Ahead of Likely FOMC Rate Hike Later Today and Kavanaugh Hearing Tomorrow

September 26, 2018

The FOMC policy announcement today at 14:00 EDT (18:00 GMT) is expected to justify another 25-basis point rate hike now and to leave in play a possible fourth move this year in December. New forecasts will be unveiled, and Chairman Powell will preside over a press conference starting at 14:30 EDT to explain the latest […] More

Assessing July Factory PMIs and Awaiting FOMC Statement

August 1, 2018

A parade of more than twenty purchasing manufacturing indices released today showed weaker July than June conditions by a ratio of five to one. Today’s FOMC decision is neither expected to entail an interest rate change nor any back-down of resolve following President Trump’s criticism that the Fed has been too quick to raise interest […] More

Stocks and Commodities Up, Manufacturing PMIs Out, and FOMC Announcement on Tap

November 1, 2017

On this All Saints Day, the dollar rose 0.5% to a 6-month high against the yen and also posted advances of 0.4% against the Swiss franc while moving above par and 0.3% relative to the euro. The dollar is steady against the loonie, peso and sterling but has fallen 0.7% relative to the kiwi and […] More

FOMC Leaves FF Target at 1-1.25%

September 20, 2017

The FOMC statement kept the existing interest rate target with no dissenting votes. Officials do not expect the hurricane storm damages to “alter the course of the national economy over the medium term. The statement includes a two-page addendum of modifications to a balance sheet normalization program that will begin to be implemented next month. […] More

A Compelling Argument for the Fed to Stay the Course of Rate Normalization

September 18, 2017

This week’s Federal Open Market meeting is not expected to raise the 1.00-1.25% federal funds target but is nonetheless anticipated as an event that may shed many clues regarding future policy. The disconnection between a tightening labor market yet continuing sub-target inflation has kindled speculation that there may not be any further interest rate increases […] More

Growth Optimism Crowds Out Geopolitical Worries in Wednesday’s Session

August 16, 2017

Markets have turned a deafer ear to geopolitical concerns,¬†but such is likely only a temporary lull. A Korean war seems less imminent, but world alarm about changes happening in the United States continues to mount. The title of a Tuesday Op-Ed article in the Financial Times — America is now a dangerous nation¬†— would have […] More

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