FOMC preview

FOMC Preview

July 29, 2015

The last FOMC meeting on June 16-17 upgraded growth on improved household consumption, spoke of continuing progress on the mandates to maximize employment and secure a 2.0% inflation target, but decided that more evidence of sustained growth and higher inflation are needed before beginning to normalize the federal funds rate.  Energy and the dollar, two […] More

FOMC Preview

January 28, 2015

This week’s FOMC meeting marks the end of the first year with Janet Yellen as Fed Chairperson.  A change in policy settings is not foreseen, and the market consensus continues to anticipate an initial rate hike happening around the middle of this year.  One new element in thinking could be the appreciation of the dollar, […] More

FOMC Preview

December 17, 2014

In the seven weeks since the late October FOMC meeting, the price of West Texas Intermediate oil has plunged 32.7%, and the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen by 25 more basis points.  Consumer prices in the five months since mid-2014 contracted 0.7% at an annualized rate, and core CPI rose only 1.1% annualized, which is […] More

FOMC Preview: How Markets Were Guided Before the Last Rate Normalization

September 16, 2014

Fed officials have already prepared investors to expect a change in forward policy guidance language that will steer markets to an initial Fed funds rate hike around next March or April.  Rate normalization will then commence, by which is meant the transformation of policy from the current stance that promotes faster economic growth and higher […] More

FOMC Preview

July 30, 2014

A new policy statement will be released by the Federal Open Market Committee will be released at 14:00 EDT (18:00 GMT).  The prior statement spoke about a post-1Q rebound of the economy, and this communique is likely to upgrade that trend further.  Of particular note will be how the statement incorporates the changed nuance introduced […] More

FOMC Preview

June 17, 2014

In the seven weeks since the last FOMC meeting at end-April, geopolitical tension have lifted the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil by 7.4%.  The dollar has appreciated 2.4% against the euro but is essentially flat relative to the yen.  On balance, 10-year Treasuries and the Dow Jones Industrials likewise hardly changed on net.  […] More

FOMC Preview

April 30, 2014

This should be a routine event as FOMC meetings go.  Expectations of a further $10 billion drop in the Fed’s monthly asset purchases are virtually certain to be met.  No post-announcement press conference is scheduled, nor are updated forecasts being released.  All the market gets is a statement that will mimic most of the elements […] More

FOMC Preview

March 19, 2014

The decision of the first Federal Open Market Committee meeting to be presided over by Chairwoman Janet Yellen is scheduled for 14OO EDT (1800 GMT) and will be followed by a press conference at 1430 EDT.  New forecasts will be unveiled.  Investors have been prepared to expect another $10 billion reduction in the size of […] More

FOMC Encore

October 30, 2013

The previous FOMC meeting in mid-September produced one of the least expected results in memory.  Forward policy guidance now constitutes a centerpiece of U.S. monetary policy, and officials from Chairman Bernanke downward had seemingly been preparing markets for a reduction of quantitative stimulus beginning in September.  There had been no verbal signals just before that […] More

FOMC Preview

May 1, 2013

The third of eight scheduled Federal Open Market Committee policy statements in 2013 is being released today at 14:00 EDT (18:00 GMT).  There will be no press conference afterward.  The previous statement on March 20 upgraded assessments of the labor market and housing sector, observed a more restrictive fiscal policy, called longer-term inflation expectations stable […] More