FOMC Minutes

Comments on the FOMC Minutes from November 7-8

November 29, 2018

FOMC minutes released today suggest a lesser shift in Fed policy intentions that markets perhaps assumed after yesterday’s speech by Chairman Powell. His remark regarding the federal funds rate perhaps now only being slightly lower than rate neutrality is ascribed in these minutes to just a few committee participants. A few participants, while viewing further […] More

Trump Fighting a Two-Front War Against Fed and Over His Stance on Saudi Arabia

October 18, 2018

Minutes from the FOMC September meeting minutes at which monetary officials again raised interest rates reveal confidence in continuing growth, a view shared by some that the fed funds target is likely to spend a while above the perceived long-run level, and a considerable time allotted to discussion of the ramifications of U.S.-Sino trade tensions. […] More

FOMC Minutes

May 23, 2018

Comments within the May 1-2 minutes¬†regarding U.S. economic conditions and prospects are unsurprising and embody little change. The labor market is strengthening, GDP growth is moderately paced, and inflation is hovering not far from target. One excerpt always of interest is the language on likely future monetary policy: With regard to the medium-term outlook for […] More

Three-Pronged Blow to European Confidence

May 23, 2018

Italy is poised to get a populist, anti-euro, anti-austerity, and pro-Russia governing coalition. Being the third largest economy to use the euro, this development poses an existential risk to the common European currency that is far greater than the debt problems of Greece. Ten-year sovereign debt yields rose 10 basis points today in Italy in […] More

FOMC Minutes

February 21, 2018

Minutes from the last Federal Open Market Committee on January 30-31, which also was the last one of the Janet Yellen era, note that economic growth in 2018 appears likely to be somewhat faster than imagined at the prior meeting. However, no urgency is expressed to speed up the likely progression of future interest rate […] More

Quiet Start to Wednesday

October 11, 2017

The dollar is marginally softer, with overnight dips of 0.3% against the peso, 0.2% versus the yen and Aussie dollar and 0.1% vis-a-vis the euro and Swiss franc. The dollar also rose 0.4% against the yuan and 0.1% relative to sterling but is flat against the loonie and kiwi. Tensions over Spain’s political situation eased […] More

FOMC Minutes

August 16, 2017

Minutes from the July 25-26th Federal Open Market Committee policy meeting revealed compartmentalized thinking on the two policy normalization issues. Committee members were split over whether a recent dip in inflation should in and of itself delay the next interest rate increase but unified on the need to publicize a road map soon of guidelines […] More

Several Data Surprises

April 5, 2017

ADP reported a resurgence of private jobs in the United States, which they estimate climbed 263K in March. The Labor Department monthly report arrives Friday. But the U.S. non-manufacturing purchasing managers index compiled by the ISM fell back 2.4 ¬†points to 55.2, with business activity retreating 4.7 points to a reading of 58.9. Likewise, a […] More

FOMC Minutes

February 22, 2017

Minutes from the January 31/February 01 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee policy review revealed little information that contradict general perceptions of the current thinking and contingent intentions of policymakers. The meeting was the first after the one in December that had raised the federal funds target by 25 basis points. Donald Trump had […] More

Euro Dips Briefly Below $1.05

February 22, 2017

Concerns that European nationalism may break the EU apart caused the euro to dip to an overnight and 6-week low of $1.0493 and 10-year sovereign debt yields to fall five basis points in The Netherlands, 4 bps in Germany, 3 bps in France, Italy and Britain. Equity markets in Continental Europe are down 1.0% in […] More

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