FOMC Minutes
Global Slowdown Concerns Remain in Play
January 10, 2019
FOMC minutes yesterday revealed less clarity about the future path of the fed funds target. Some committee members had been hesitant to endorse December’s rate hike, the ninth of this tightening cycle, although a consensus persists that a few more increase are probable in the future. Ultimately, policy will be reactive to the data, and […] More
Comments on the FOMC Minutes from November 7-8
November 29, 2018
FOMC minutes released today suggest a lesser shift in Fed policy intentions that markets perhaps assumed after yesterday’s speech by Chairman Powell. His remark regarding the federal funds rate perhaps now only being slightly lower than rate neutrality is ascribed in these minutes to just a few committee participants. A few participants, while viewing further […] More
Trump Fighting a Two-Front War Against Fed and Over His Stance on Saudi Arabia
October 18, 2018
Minutes from the FOMC September meeting minutes at which monetary officials again raised interest rates reveal confidence in continuing growth, a view shared by some that the fed funds target is likely to spend a while above the perceived long-run level, and a considerable time allotted to discussion of the ramifications of U.S.-Sino trade tensions. […] More
FOMC Minutes
May 23, 2018
Comments within the May 1-2 minutes regarding U.S. economic conditions and prospects are unsurprising and embody little change. The labor market is strengthening, GDP growth is moderately paced, and inflation is hovering not far from target. One excerpt always of interest is the language on likely future monetary policy: With regard to the medium-term outlook for […] More
Three-Pronged Blow to European Confidence
May 23, 2018
Italy is poised to get a populist, anti-euro, anti-austerity, and pro-Russia governing coalition. Being the third largest economy to use the euro, this development poses an existential risk to the common European currency that is far greater than the debt problems of Greece. Ten-year sovereign debt yields rose 10 basis points today in Italy in […] More
FOMC Minutes
February 21, 2018
Minutes from the last Federal Open Market Committee on January 30-31, which also was the last one of the Janet Yellen era, note that economic growth in 2018 appears likely to be somewhat faster than imagined at the prior meeting. However, no urgency is expressed to speed up the likely progression of future interest rate […] More
Quiet Start to Wednesday
October 11, 2017
The dollar is marginally softer, with overnight dips of 0.3% against the peso, 0.2% versus the yen and Aussie dollar and 0.1% vis-a-vis the euro and Swiss franc. The dollar also rose 0.4% against the yuan and 0.1% relative to sterling but is flat against the loonie and kiwi. Tensions over Spain’s political situation eased […] More
FOMC Minutes
August 16, 2017
Minutes from the July 25-26th Federal Open Market Committee policy meeting revealed compartmentalized thinking on the two policy normalization issues. Committee members were split over whether a recent dip in inflation should in and of itself delay the next interest rate increase but unified on the need to publicize a road map soon of guidelines […] More
Several Data Surprises
April 5, 2017
ADP reported a resurgence of private jobs in the United States, which they estimate climbed 263K in March. The Labor Department monthly report arrives Friday. But the U.S. non-manufacturing purchasing managers index compiled by the ISM fell back 2.4 points to 55.2, with business activity retreating 4.7 points to a reading of 58.9. Likewise, a […] More
FOMC Minutes
February 22, 2017
Minutes from the January 31/February 01 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee policy review revealed little information that contradict general perceptions of the current thinking and contingent intentions of policymakers. The meeting was the first after the one in December that had raised the federal funds target by 25 basis points. Donald Trump had […] More
