Euroland retail sales

A Steady Dollar

November 6, 2019

The dollar on balance remains near Tuesday closing levels. Gold is 0.3% firmer. The spate of recent increases in 10-year sovereign debt yields was reversed today with 3-basis point declines in U.S. Treasuries and British gilt yields and a dip of 1 basis point in the 10-year German bund yield. The Japanese 10-year JGB yield, […] More

Some Geopolitical Relief but Not Out of the Woods

September 4, 2019

The British Parliament passed a bill late yesterday by a 328-301 margin to stop Prime Minister Johnson from engineering a no-deal breakaway from the EU on October 31. BoJo, as he is known, is expected to lose more votes today and to call snap elections for October 14th. It’s not clear the Parliament will authorize […] More

Independence Day 2018

July 4, 2019

Financial markets this Thursday barely moved in the absence of U.S. participation. A few more purchasing managers surveys from June were reported. The global composite PMI stayed at May’s three-year low level. The global services PMI recovered 0.3 points to 51.9 from May’s 33-month low. Hong Kong’s private manufacturing PMI signaled a contractionary trend for […] More

Dollar Eased but Share Prices and Sovereign Debt Yields Rose Overnight

April 3, 2019

The dollar slipped 0.4% against the euro and 0.2% relative to the yen, loonie, yuan, and Swiss franc. Larger dollar drops of 0.8% and 0.6% occurred versus the Australian and New Zealand dollars, and a 0.1% uptick happened versus the yen. Share prices in the Pacific Rim strengthened 1.2% in China, Hong Kong and South […] More

Dollar and Sovereign Debt Yields Up, but Equities Mostly Down

March 5, 2019

Overnight gains in the dollar amount to 0.6% versus sterling, 0.5% relative to the kiwi, 0.4% vis-a-vis the loonie, and 0.3% against the euro, Swiss Franc and Australian dollar. Ten-year sovereign debt yields climbed two basis points in Germany and the United States and a basis point in Japan. Stock markets fell 0.7% in Indonesia, […] More

More Evidence of Weakening Growth in Europe and Trepidation Ahead of President Trump’s State of the Union Address Tonight

February 5, 2019

The conclusion of Euroland’s service-sector and composite purchasing manager surveys tells it all: The business environment is at its most challenging since the height of the region’s debt crisis.” The composite Ezone PMI reading of 51.0 was at a 66-month low, and service sector activity (51.2) was near its 4-year low. From a separate report […] More

Service Sector PMIs Out but Many U.S. Cancellations

December 5, 2018

U.S. Treasury market and stock markets are closed for a federal holiday mourning the death of former U.S. President  George H.W. Bush. Fed Chairman Powell’s scheduled testimony before the Joint Economic Committee in Congress was scrapped with no announced make-up date yet set, but the Beige Book analysis of regional conditions will be released at […] More

Dollar Down Broadly after Mixed U.S. Election Result

November 7, 2018

The dollar traded down overnight by 1.7% against the kiwi, 1.0% versus the Australian dollar, 0.7% relative to the euro and Swiss franc, 0.5% vis-a-vis the peso and sterling, 0.4% against the loonie, 0.3% versus the yen and 0.1% against the yuan. Share prices fell in Asia but have risen in Europe. Market losses totaled […] More

Less Concern about Italy than Felt Yesterday

October 3, 2018

After Italy’s government had worried markets earlier by submitting a budget with a deficit of 2.4% of GDP, informed sources said that deficits would shrink after next year and settle back to 2.0% of GDP in 2021. A relief rally saw the 10-year sovereign Italian debt yield shed 13 basis points and Italy’s share prices […] More

No Sino/U.S. Trade Deal, Falling Turkish Lira, and U.S. Jobs Day

May 4, 2018

U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has left Beijing with no agreement on trade. Investors wonder how soon tit-for-tat tariffs may follow. The Turkish lira tumbled by more than 1% overnight, moving past 4.28/USD and bringing cumulative depreciation to almost 5% over the past four sessions. Turkey has double-digit inflation and an autocratic government that’s dissuading the […] More

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