Euroland current account
Counting Down the Days
October 20, 2020
It’s T-minus two weeks to the U.S. presidential and congressional election. In national polls, Biden leads by just under 10 percentage points, but suspense continues because of Trump’s refusal to say he will honor the result, the electoral college distortion that necessitates a Democrat to secure a 5% or greater popular vote plurality in order […] More
A Relatively Steady Dollar This Monday
July 20, 2020
This will be a light week from a data release standpoint, but many other factors are vying for investor attention as the period commenced. European Union leaders are in their fourth day of talks to find common ground on shared fiscal support against the Covid-19 recession. The U.S. congress returns from two weeks of recess […] More
Good Trade News but Unsettling Covid Developments
June 19, 2020
Share prices got a boost from an overnight report that China will step up purchases of U.S. agricultural goods. This comes after Thursday’s revelation in the Bolton tell-all book that Trump had solicited a boost in Chinese purchases to voter reelection support from the mid-west. Several populous U.S. states like California, Florida, and Texas continue […] More
Dollar Down After Fed Expands Currency Swap Network.. Equities Up in Asia and Europe
March 20, 2020
The dollar fell overnight by 2.9% against the Australian dollar, 2.5% relative to the kiwi, 2.2% versus sterling, 2.0% vis-a-vis the loonie, 0.8% against the peso, 0.6% versus the yen and 0.4% relative to the euro and Swiss franc. The swap line arrangement that enables central banks to exchange on a temporary basis their own […] More
Brexit Headed for Photo Finnish and a Lot of Chinese Data Released
October 18, 2019
A debate and vote on British Prime Minister Johnson’s deal with the EU is scheduled Saturday. He needs 318 yes votes for approval, and the outcome figures to be very close to that threshold. Johnson needs only a simple majority win. In a more perfectly designed political system of self-governance, a decision with such profound […] More
NY Fed President Moves Markets Unwittingly
July 19, 2019
John Williams, President of the NY Fed and a permanent member of the FOMC, gave an academic speech asserting that it’s best for central banks to respond quickly in the face of slower economic growth. Investors took his comment as the clearest sign yet that the federal funds rate will be cut at the FOMC […] More
Much Riding on Fed Chairman’s Press Conference
June 19, 2019
The dollar is unchanged from Tuesday closing levels against the yen, yuan, kiwi, and Australian dollar. The greenback has slipped 0.4% against the Swiss franc, 0.3% relative to sterling but just just 0.1% vis-a-vis the loonie and euro. U.S. President opened a fresh topic in the 24-hour news cycle, accusing ECB President Draghi and that […] More
Two Surprises
May 20, 2019
The new week is greeting investors with two unexpected developments, one political and the other economic. The right-of-center Liberal-National coalition government of Australia was headed for defeat in parliamentary elections according to previous opinion polls but instead defeated its Labour Party opponent. Scott Morrison will remain prime minister, and he campaigned on a promise of […] More
Investors Remain on Edge
October 19, 2018
China reported the lowest on-year GDP growth (6.5% in 3Q) since the first quarter of 2009. Damning evidence continues to mount that the highest levels of the Saudi government were complicit in the likely death of dissident journalist Khashoggi. U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin upcoming trip to Saudi Arabia was cancelled. Two Fed officials, Governor Quarles […] More
Released Current Account Data and Some Central Bank Decisions
September 19, 2018
The dollar is steady to mostly softer. North America’s stock market rally on Tuesday carried over into Asia and Europe. The ten-year British gilt yield edged up 2 basis points, and gold firmed 0.4%. Oil is steady, as are German bunds and Japanese JGBs. New Zealand recorded a larger-than-forecast NZD 1.619 billion current account deficit […] More
