Dollar Affected by Diverging Monetary Policy Stances

November 2, 2015

Quite a few central banks will be holding interest rate policy meetings this week.  These include the Reserve Bank of Australia, which also releases a new quarterly policy statement and the Bank of England, whose meeting coincides with its quarterly Inflation Report.  The list also includes central banks in Iceland, Thailand, Poland, Norway, Malaysia, the […] More

Defining Fed Policy and What to Expect from the Dollar

September 29, 2015

A succession of changes occurred starting in the early to mid-1990s in how U.S. monetary policy is communicated to the public.  What the Fed was doing and why became much more transparent.  Policy was extremely opaque a generation ago –no minutes, no forward guidance, no immediate FOMC statement explaining a change, no post-meeting press conferences, […] More

A Stale Currency Market Landscape

August 10, 2015

In these dog days of August, currency movements cannot be trusted to represent the current state of relative economic fundamentals between countries, nor even expectations of future economic and financial market trends.  Superimposed upon this seasonal time of limbo, summer 2015 finds investors stuck with a set of uncertainties that has grown stale.  Foremost among […] More

Why Might the Dollar Uptrend Be Stalled?

July 21, 2015

On paper, prospects for dollar appreciation continue to look very sound.  Monetary policy cycles will be extremely disparate over the next two years between the United States on the one hand and the eurozone, Japan and emerging markets on the other.  Gold’s relentless slide suggests considerable continuing confidence in a dollar uptrend, especially in light […] More

Dollar Emerges Strong after Two Mistrusted Deals

July 16, 2015

The first of two agreements reached this week pitted the Greek people against the country’s creditors.  It avoided the feared precedent of a member leaving the currency union but did so at enormous cost to the euro’s reputation.  To Greece’s partners, the struggle ended with victory for the principle that rules governing common currency area […] More

Upside Dollar Potential

June 10, 2015

The dollar is in a corrective phase.  From the low in 2014 to this year’s high, the dollar advanced 33.8% against the euro, 26.2% against the Australian dollar, 25.7% relative to the kiwi, 24.9% vis-a-vis the yen, 22.1% on a trade-weighted basis, 21.3% versus the Canadian dollar and 18.0% against sterling.  Varying percentages of these […] More

May in Figures

May 30, 2015

The dollar resumed its uptrend in May following a counter-trend move in April.  An exception was the yuan, which marches to a government-managed beat rather than one set by market forces.  The kiwi was the weakest currency among those charted in this feature.  Long-term interest rates were mixed in May, while short-term rates again barely […] More

Whipsawed Beyond All Recognition

May 5, 2015

The dollar is one of many financial market prices caught up in a period of intense oscillation.  Over the past five trading days, the DOW fell 1.6%, recovered 1.9%, and declined over 1.2%.  After declining from 0.39% on March 6 to 0.07% on April 20, the 10-year German bund yield rebounded to 0.51% today.  The […] More

Dollar Paused in Troubling Times

April 22, 2015

In spite of disappointing U.S. growth for a second straight quarter, dollar demand sizzled in January-March.  Trading has been consolidating this month, and not merely pausing after such an upward spurt or even because of some convergence of macroeconomic trends between the United States and Europan.  These are disturbing times.  Each day, more bad news […] More

Dollar Recovery in a Lull

April 16, 2015

Coming into April, the dollar had experienced a rally of historic proportions, topped off by advances of more than 9.0% in the first quarter against the euro, yen, Swissie and both Canadian and Australian dollars.  In the current month, however, upward dollar momentum has slowed substantially for a variety of reasons. A broad spectrum of […] More