Dollar

A Nation and World Turns its Ear to Janet Yellen

February 9, 2016

Janet Yellen will be testifying Wednesday on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the House Financial Services Committee and reprising her message Thursday to the Senate Banking Committee.  Formerly known as the semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins Hearings, Congress can be an unfriendly audience for Fed Chair-persons, especially in election years like this one.  Yellen’s task will […] More

Tougher Dollar Sledding Against the Euro and Yen

February 1, 2016

The strong dollar performance of 2015 carried over into the first month of 2016 against a large number of currencies.  Appreciation last month was most pronounced against commodity sensitive currencies and emerging economy monies and also included the performances against the Swiss franc and sterling. The dollar’s two most influential relationships moved only slightly on […] More

What to Make of Three Helter Skelter Weeks that Felt Like a Year

January 21, 2016

Central bankers tend to be cautious and not prone to scrapping a forecast on the basis of a couple of difficult weeks when developments haven’t jived with baseline assumptions.  But there was the ECB President today declaring that “downside risks have increased again and citing a trio of causes — increased uncertainty surrounding emerging markets, […] More

Some Things for Currency Market Participants to Watch in 2016

January 5, 2016

Brazil, China and Russia This trio of emerging markets comprises three-fourths of the BRIC group.  Not long ago when each of these economies were performing well, the group was seen as the beneficiary in a gradual shift of economic and political influence at the expense of the Group of Seven advanced economies.  2015 was a […] More

Current Accounts Matter, Too

November 9, 2015

Across-the-board improvement in last Friday’s U.S. labor market statistics lifted the dollar as high as 1.0706 per euro.  That’s a net gain of over 6.0% since October 21.  Expectations are now strong that the federal funds rate will be raised next month and that ECB monetary policy will be eased as well.  It’s not often […] More

Dollar Affected by Diverging Monetary Policy Stances

November 2, 2015

Quite a few central banks will be holding interest rate policy meetings this week.  These include the Reserve Bank of Australia, which also releases a new quarterly policy statement and the Bank of England, whose meeting coincides with its quarterly Inflation Report.  The list also includes central banks in Iceland, Thailand, Poland, Norway, Malaysia, the […] More

Defining Fed Policy and What to Expect from the Dollar

September 29, 2015

A succession of changes occurred starting in the early to mid-1990s in how U.S. monetary policy is communicated to the public.  What the Fed was doing and why became much more transparent.  Policy was extremely opaque a generation ago –no minutes, no forward guidance, no immediate FOMC statement explaining a change, no post-meeting press conferences, […] More

A Stale Currency Market Landscape

August 10, 2015

In these dog days of August, currency movements cannot be trusted to represent the current state of relative economic fundamentals between countries, nor even expectations of future economic and financial market trends.  Superimposed upon this seasonal time of limbo, summer 2015 finds investors stuck with a set of uncertainties that has grown stale.  Foremost among […] More

Why Might the Dollar Uptrend Be Stalled?

July 21, 2015

On paper, prospects for dollar appreciation continue to look very sound.  Monetary policy cycles will be extremely disparate over the next two years between the United States on the one hand and the eurozone, Japan and emerging markets on the other.  Gold’s relentless slide suggests considerable continuing confidence in a dollar uptrend, especially in light […] More

Dollar Emerges Strong after Two Mistrusted Deals

July 16, 2015

The first of two agreements reached this week pitted the Greek people against the country’s creditors.  It avoided the feared precedent of a member leaving the currency union but did so at enormous cost to the euro’s reputation.  To Greece’s partners, the struggle ended with victory for the principle that rules governing common currency area […] More

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