Dollar

July in Figures

July 31, 2017

On the final day of July, the Dow hit a record high, and the dollar touched its weakest level against the euro since January 14, 2015 and softest yen value since mid-June. July was a difficult month for the U.S. presidency, even by Trump standards. Also, the future path of Fed policy became less certain, […] More

Markets Just Can’t Get Beyond Trump Administration Uncertainty and Contradictions

July 12, 2017

As the tenth anniversary of the start of the financial crisis nears to less than two months, the conventional wisdom is that a normalization of monetary policies will be kicking into a faster gear. The Fed leads in this process but is not the only monetary authority involved. In fact, the Bank of Japan has […] More

Populism Not a Good Recipe for Currency Strength

June 28, 2017

Among highly developed countries, the United States and Great Britain are some of the best examples in which the politics of populism has made the greatest inroads. Sterling is roughly 14% weaker now against the dollar than when the Brexit referendum was approved a little over a year ago, but even the pound has appreciated […] More

May in Figures

June 1, 2017

U.S. and European sovereign debt yields fell during May. Short-term European interest rates also fell in contrast to a rise of the 3-month U.S. deposit rate. In Japan, rates rose at the long end but fell in short maturities. Stock markets improved in all markets examined here except Canada’s. The dollar climbed against sterling and […] More

March and First Quarter in Figures

April 1, 2017

March saw an introspective pause to the market euphoria of the first two months of 2017, but the quarter still experienced a broadly lower dollar and strong stock market gains for the most part, the Japanese Nikkei being a notable exception. Ten-year sovereign debt yields were mixed and resulted in less supportive U.S. premiums at […] More

February in Figures

February 28, 2017

Equities were bid sharply higher in February, and the dollar appreciated mostly. Ten-year sovereign debt yields, which had risen during January, reversed course. Short-term interest rates were steady, and commodity prices climbed. 10-Yr Yield o2/28/17 01/31/17 Chg v End-Jan U.S. 2.38% 2.45% -7 Basis Points Germany 0.20% 0.43% -23 Japan 0.04% 0.07% -3 U.K. 1.15% […] More

Dollar Up ahead of Trump’s First Press Conference

January 11, 2017

The dollar appreciated overnight by 0.5% against the euro, 0.4% versus the yen, Swissie and sterling, 0.2% relative to the Mexican peso, and 0.1% relative to the yuan. It dipped 0.1% vis-a-vis the New Zealand and Australian currencies but extended its rise against the Turkish lira by about 2%. The juxtaposition of Obama’s Farewell Address […] More

A Meaningful Financial Market Reaction to the British Vote

July 7, 2016

It was said by proponents of Britain leaving the European Union that predictions of dire financial market and real economic consequences were vastly overstated and that any repercussions would be fleeting and overall inconsequential.  Two weeks of post-referendum experience say otherwise. Sovereign debt yields have tumbled, suggesting an elevated risk of recession, the possibility of […] More

Continuing Brexit Concerns and FOMC Day

June 15, 2016

A fifth published poll of British voters gives an edge to those favoring an exit from the European Union. Today’s main event will be the FOMC statement due at 18:00 GMT and subsequent press conference. China made news in three ways earlier today.  First, MSCI announced it will not include equities in its indices. The second […] More

Currency Management Norms Under Threat

May 23, 2016

A statement released April 15 by G20 finance ministers and central bank governors reaffirmed a position against currency manipulation that represents a coordinated stance that’s been in place already for a long time: Excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates can have adverse implications for economic and financial stability.  We will consult closely on […] More

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