dollar outlook

Dollar Outlook as Election Nears

October 12, 2020

2020 has been a difficult year for America’s brand of democracy. Amid doubts that democratic practices can be relied upon to forge policies in the best common interests of the citizenry or even whether the people still want sovereignty to be vested in the people, the dollar’s main basis of support lies in its centrality […] More

A Very Robust Dollar with Continuing Upside Potential

March 23, 2020

The dollar has thrived during the global coronavirus pandemic. In the past two weeks the U.S. currency has advanced between 5% and 10% against the euro, yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, Turkish lira, Brazilian real, South Korean won and South African rand. It has climbed between 10% and 15% relative to the British […] More

Coronavirus Darkens Dollar Outlook

March 7, 2020

After simmering on low for two months, the Covid-19 outbreak slammed world financial markets to create back-to-back weekly volatility on a scale with few precedents over the past four decades. Stocks, long-term interest rates, commodity prices and foreign exchange were all sucked into the maelstrom. The DOW closed February 21st down just 0.4% over the […] More

Thoughts on How the Dollar Might Perform in 2020

January 13, 2020

Lessening Dollar Volatility: Closing quarterly quotes for the euro against the U.S. currency last year painted a tight shot group of $1.1217 in 1Q, $1.1373 at midyear, $1.0900 in the third quarter and $1.1219 at yearend. If one substitutes dollar/mark for EUR/USD for years prior to 1999, the 4.3% spread between the most disparate of […] More

Still Waiting for a Broad and Sustained Dollar Decline

October 15, 2019

Many forecasters had expected a downward break in the dollar this year. It didn’t happen, and only a fifth of the year remains. Compared to a year ago, the dollar shows a double-digit decline against the euro and rises of about 3% relative to sterling and the Chinese yuan versus a dip of less than […] More

2017 GDP Growth and CPI Inflation in the U.S., Euroland and Japan

February 20, 2018

Economic growth slowed last quarter from the summer’s pace in the United States, Euroland and Japan but, also in each case was stronger in calendar 2017 than in 2016. U.S. GDP rose 2.6% at an annualized pace between 3Q and 2Q, down from 3.2% in the previous quarter and reflecting a combined 1.8 percentage point […] More

U.S. Populism Already Depressing the Dollar

November 28, 2017

The dollar has lost approximately 13% against the euro, 6% relative to the yen, and 9% on a trade-weighted basis compared to its strongest levels since the November 2016 U.S. election. The dollar has declined so far this quarter by a bit about 2% against the common European currency on top of a 3.3% drop […] More

Dollar Image Still Eroding

July 23, 2017

The initial advance of the dollar after Donald Trump’s election has been erased. The euphoria had stemmed from a belief that federal government policy would be legislated more easily with single party control and that the Trump proposals of tax relief, financial market deregulation, fair trade, and infrastructure repair would lift productivity, shrink the trade […] More

Some Factors to Consider When Handicapping Dollar’s Outlook

February 21, 2017

Fake News that is likely to become even more prevalent will present many challenges to currency forecasters. Even if the U.S. press and the intelligence community try to stand their ground, the executive branch of government enjoys great advantages in creating doubt and confusion in the public’s mind over what to believe. The two watchdogs are […] More

Dollar Uptrend Back on Track

February 15, 2017

The dollar is back in the saddle. After a strong performance last autumn, the dollar hit a speed bump in January but experienced solid demand in the first half of this month. Against both the euro and yen, the U.S. currency posted gains in each month of last quarter. So far in February, it has recovered […] More