Chinese CPI and PPI
Border Emergency Instead of a Second U.S. Government Shutdown
February 15, 2019
Share prices sank in Asia by 2.2% in Hong Kong, 1.4% in China, 1.3% in South Korea and 1.1% in Japan but have since rallied 1.0% or more in the U.S., Canada, Germany and France. The dollar fell overnight by 0.5% against sterling, 0.3% relative to the Aussie dollar, and 0.2% vis-a-vis the kiwi but […] More
Global Slowdown Concerns Remain in Play
January 10, 2019
FOMC minutes yesterday revealed less clarity about the future path of the fed funds target. Some committee members had been hesitant to endorse December’s rate hike, the ninth of this tightening cycle, although a consensus persists that a few more increase are probable in the future. Ultimately, policy will be reactive to the data, and […] More
U.K., China, and Saudi Arabia in the News
October 16, 2018
British regular pay inflation accelerated 0.2 percentage points to 3.1% in June-August, the highest pace since the start of 2009. This has generated speculation about another Bank of England tightening and lifted the pound 0.5% above yesterday’s closing level. Chinese consumer prices recorded their second straight monthly advance of 0.7% in September, lifting the 12-month […] More
Declines in Kiwi, Ruble and Turkish Lira
August 9, 2018
The dollar advanced overnight by 1.6% against the New Zealand dollar, 0.9% versus the Russian ruble, and some 2.5% vis-a-vis the Turkish lira. Not only did the latest review of New Zealand monetary policy end with leaving the Official Cash Rate at 1.75%, half its level prior to the June 2015 first of 7 reductions, […] More
Post-G7 Market Reaction Suppressed ahead of Tomorrow’s Kim-Trump Meeting and Several Key Central Bank Policy Reviews Later this Week
June 11, 2018
The annual summit of Group of Seven leaders over the weekend went poorly (see my review), but share prices mostly rose today in Asia and Europe. Stocks advanced 0.8% in South Korea, 0.5% in Japan, 0.4% in New Zealand, 0.3% in Hong Kong, 0.2% in Singapore, and 0.1% in India but slipped 0.5% in China […] More
Down Day for Stocks and Dollar
April 11, 2018
Military conflict between U.S. and Russian forces in Syria appears at hand. Trump is promising missile strikes, and Russia claims to have the ability to knock them out of the sky before targets are hit. Investors are uneasy that these hostilities will escalate further. U.S. consumer price inflation accelerated further in March in spite of […] More
Commodity Prices Strengthen
October 16, 2017
West Texas Intermediate crude oil advanced 1.3% to $52.10 per barrel, and copper strengthened nearly 3%. Comex gold is 0.2% higher. Comments over the weekend at the IMF meetings in Washington from the likes of Yellen, Zhou, and Constancio stressed that growth is doing well and expressed puzzlement that wage inflation continues to lag. BOJ […] More
U.S./North Korean Tensions Lift the Swiss franc, Yen, Yuan and Gold
August 9, 2017
President Trump’s warning to North Korea of fire and fury has captured market attention. The dollar fell 0.8% against the franc, 0.5% versus the Chinese yuan, 0.3% relative to the yen, and 1.2% against gold. Sovereign debt is in demand, meanwhile, with 10-year yields down 4 basis points in the United States and France, six […] More
Markets Calm Considering What’s Happened
June 9, 2017
Comey’s testimony, in which he basically called Trump a liar and laid out accusations that could be construed as an attempted obstruction of justice, may yet prove very damaging to the Trump Presidency and elicited a fairly rare full six-column headline on page 1 of the New York Times. The Conservatives lost their parliamentary majority […] More
Further Leap in U.S. Consumer Confidence Lifts Dollar
December 9, 2016
The Reuters/U. Michigan consumer sentiment index leaped to 98.0 in early December from final readings of 93.8 in November and 87.2 in October. The latest score almost matches the greatest optimism since 2004. Excitement about the coming Trump presidency appears responsible for this much greater-than-anticipated upturn. The dollar climbed overnight by 1.0% against the yen […] More
