Chinese CPI and PPI
U.S./North Korean Tensions Lift the Swiss franc, Yen, Yuan and Gold
August 9, 2017
President Trump’s warning to North Korea of fire and fury has captured market attention. The dollar fell 0.8% against the franc, 0.5% versus the Chinese yuan, 0.3% relative to the yen, and 1.2% against gold. Sovereign debt is in demand, meanwhile, with 10-year yields down 4 basis points in the United States and France, six […] More
Markets Calm Considering What’s Happened
June 9, 2017
Comey’s testimony, in which he basically called Trump a liar and laid out accusations that could be construed as an attempted obstruction of justice, may yet prove very damaging to the Trump Presidency and elicited a fairly rare full six-column headline on page 1 of the New York Times. The Conservatives lost their parliamentary majority […] More
Further Leap in U.S. Consumer Confidence Lifts Dollar
December 9, 2016
The Reuters/U. Michigan consumer sentiment index leaped to 98.0 in early December from final readings of 93.8 in November and 87.2 in October. The latest score almost matches the greatest optimism since 2004. Excitement about the coming Trump presidency appears responsible for this much greater-than-anticipated upturn. The dollar climbed overnight by 1.0% against the yen […] More
Chinese Price Data Lend Support to Investor Sentiment
October 14, 2016
The perceived strength of the Chinese economy continues to exert enormous influence over market sentiment. Poor trade data on Thursday sent global stocks tumbling, but today’s price reports indicated higher-than-expected inflation and generated a relief rally. Chinese consumer prices advanced 0.7% on month in September and 1.9% on year, the biggest 12-month increase since a […] More
Persistent Worries about Global Growth
September 9, 2016
Markets had rallied earlier this week as perceived odds for a U.S. interest rate increase were trimmed because of softer-than-expected U.S. data. Now, markets are nervous again. The Fed may be proceeding very gradually with rate normalization, but at the same time other central bankerss like those at the ECB and BOJ are having mounting […] More
Sterling Sinks Below $1.3000 to Monthly Low
August 9, 2016
Sovereign debt prices rose. So did stocks, oil, the yen and dollar. Gold and industrial metal prices fell. There are holidays today in Singapore and South Africa. Today is the ninth anniversary of the onset of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and the 42nd anniversary of the resignation of former President Nixon. The dollar dipped […] More
Dour Data but Stocks Up
May 10, 2016
The dollar rose overnight by 0.6% against the yen and kiwi, 0.3% versus the Swiss franc, 0.2% relative to the loonie and 0.1% against the euro. The dollar is down 0.3% against the Australian dollar and 0.2% relative to sterling. The yuan is unchanged. Share prices in the Pacific Rim advanced 2.2% in Japan, 0.8% […] More
Chinese Price Data Dampen Market Risk Aversion
April 11, 2016
Chinese share prices recovered 1.6% after a tough week. Comex gold advanced 0.7% to $1,249.87, near a three-week high. West Texas Intermediate crude oil is trading at $39.55 per barrel, just a tad south of the $40 threshold. The 10-year British gilt yield rose four basis points to 1.40%. German bunds and Japanese JGBs are […] More
Euro Rises on ECB Announcements
March 10, 2016
The ECB Governing Council announced a more aggressive package of stimulants than analysts were expecting. All ECB central bank interest rates including the main refinancing rate were lowered. The size of monthly quantitative asset purchases was increased 33% to EUR 80 billion and will run at least through end-2017. The types of eligible assets in […] More
Expressions of Concern
February 18, 2016
St. Louis Fed President Bullard, who had previously been urging interest rate normalization, gave a speech warning that further rate hikes would be risky in light of the continuing decline of market-based indicators of expected inflation and because a buildup of unhealthy asset bubbles has become less probable. A member of the Bank of Japan’s […] More
