Canadian Dollar
Canadian Labor Market Takes a Step Backward
November 6, 2009
Canada reported significantly worse-than-projected October labor market figures ninety minutes ahead of the highly anticipated U.S. labor force survey. The two data series tend not to dovetail exactly, but the Canadian figures are a reminder that all economies face a bumpy return to positive growth and, in most cases, atypically weak growth in the initial […] More
Canadian Monetary Policy Report: The Rest of the Story
October 22, 2009
As always, the Bank of Canada quarterly review is extensive, and wire service headlines do not do justice to the nuggets and other insights that one finds inside the report. The statement released two days ago when an unchanged 0.25% overnight target rate was retained created a commotion in the market with the claim that […] More
Bank of Canada: No Rate Changes and No Surprises
October 20, 2009
The seventh of eight scheduled policy announcements in 2009 kept a target Canadian overnight rate of 0.25% and a Bank Rate of 0.5%. The promise not to lift those rates before mid-2010, contingent on inflation consistent with the Bank’s forecast, was also kept. These policy parameters were first put in place six months ago after […] More
Bank of Canada Preview
October 19, 2009
The Bank of Canada’s overnight rate target hit a rock-bottom level of 0.25% in April, and officials then announced a commitment to hold the policy rate at that level until at least mid-2010. Tomorrow’s statement will reiterate that pledge not to tighten before mid-2010 even though officials have said it has become apparent that Canadian […] More
U.S. and Canadian Trade
October 9, 2009
The U.S. goods and services trade deficit of $30.71 billion in August was similar to July’s $31.85 billion and the first-half pace of $29.24 billion per month. The deficit was also smaller than forecast. Exports firmed 0.2%, while imports fell 0.6% in August. On a census basis, the U.S. merchandise trade deficit of $310.2 billion […] More
Canadian Labor Statistics: Headlines Overstate Improvement
October 9, 2009
Employment jumped 30,600 in September on top of a 27.1K advance in August, and the jobless rate dropped by three-tenths to 8.4%, its first decline in 14 months. Those headlines surprised analysts, where conventional wisdom was looking for 8.8% unemployment and a moderate loss of jobs. But… The jobless rate fell in part because of […] More
Canadian Revival, Inflation, and Competitiveness
September 17, 2009
Growth prospects are brightening. A 1.1% advance in Canada’s index of leading economic indicators last month was the biggest increase in 88 months and followed a rise of 0.6% in July, no change in either May or June and a 0.9% drop in April. In the two months between May and July, factory sales and […] More
Bank of Canada Overnight Rate Target Staying at 0.25%
September 10, 2009
Canada’s last rate cut of 25 basis points to 0.25% was implemented on April 21st and accompanied by a conditional commitment not to raise rates before mid-2010. There have now been three policy meetings since then, and each has retained that policy stance, which Bank of Canada officials believe is the appropriate way to promote […] More
Bank of Canada Preview
September 9, 2009
The Bank of Canada lowered its overnight money rate target in six steps from 3.0% at the start of October 2008 to 0.25% at its meeting last April 21st, whereupon that level was declared the “effective lower bound.” A pledge was made at that time that contingent on inflation remaining benign (which it continues to […] More
An Unexpected Rise in Canadian Jobs Last Month
September 4, 2009
The surprising 27.1K increase of Canadian employment last month is like a 212K jump in the larger U.S. labor market. Admittedly, Canada’s job gains were concentrated in part-time workers (up 30.6%), but the result is part of a stabilizing pattern since April. Jobs fell just 6.2K per month on average over the last five reported […] More
