Canadian Dollar
Unlikely to Stop the Risk Aversion Express
September 23, 2011
Risk aversion, which benefits the dollar and yen, has taken hold of all financial markets, and confidence-boosting factors are nowhere in sight. First, the economic backdrop among advanced industrialized nations recently began a fifth year of bleakness. Substantial balance sheet deleveraging remains to be done, and these economies still cannot sustain recoveries without macroeconomic support. [...] More
Canada Experiencing Higher Inflation But Softer Growth
June 30, 2011
May consumer price data released yesterday revealed an acceleration of inflation to a 12-month increase of 3.7%, up from 3.3% in April and the most since March of 2003. The annualized increase of the seasonally adjusted total consumer price series between December and May was also 3.7%. A 2.4% December 2010 versus December 2009 increase [...] More
Can a Dollar Floor Be Found Soon?
October 22, 2010
Last week was just full of surprises. Monetary policies around the world became more diversified. A tightening interest rate cycle began in China, and ECB officials showed more willingness to scale back unconventional measures. Other central banks, for example those in Canada and Brazil, put rate normalization programs on pause, and a third group including [...] More
Ride the Roller Coaster at Your Own Risk
October 1, 2010
The roller coaster metaphor describes currency market conditions since late spring very aptly. The ride starts and ends about the same place. But in between, one travels all over the place at dizzying speed, absorbing thrills and chills and winding up queasy for the effort. The ride is mindless fun and doesn’t enhance the public [...] More
A Lack of Confidence in Just about Everything
July 16, 2010
Investors have turned skittish. One sees this in wildly volatile stock prices – perhaps a sign of the summer season – but also in a sub-0.60% two-year Treasury yield and a 1.10% ten-year JGB yield. The resurgence of risk aversion ought to lend the dollar support, but the currency instead experienced a difficult week. That [...] More
European Fiscal Problems Won’t Fade
April 30, 2010
Currency market trading next week will be dominated by the scramble to rescue Greece. Outside aid for that heavily indebted economy has been misplayed repeatedly by just about everyone involved in negotiations, and the euro has paid a price for that indecision. Investors cannot avoid comparing attempts to rescue Greece from sudden default to the [...] More
No Ideal Solutions for the Euro
April 16, 2010
Greece is in perpetual check and facing checkmate unless officials get very creative. Let me explain. In return for the imposition of substantial fiscal cutbacks, an aid package will hopefully cut Greece’s long-term rates but not soon enough or deeply enough to forestall a severe recession. Greek authorities have no way to rotate growth toward [...] More
Easter Holiday 2010 Finds Key Currencies Marching to Different Beats
April 1, 2010
The euro’s first-quarter range of $1.4882 – $1.3268 lay entirely within calendar 2009′s high-low boundaries of $1.5144 and $1.2458. Until a week ago, euro momentum had been adverse. It subsequently rallied 2.4% to $1.359 but remains 3.5% below the mid-point of this year’s trading range. At times, perceptions that the euro area’s growth prospects are [...] More
Interview on CAD, Yen and Euro Outlooks
March 31, 2010
With the first calendar quarter drawing to a close today, ForexTV thought it an appropriate time to check out what I’m thinking about current conditions and future prospects regarding the yen and euro as well as commodity-sensitive currencies like the loonie. Watch my interview earlier this afternoon with Julie Sinha of ForexTV. Copyright Larry Greenberg [...] More
Many Uncertainties For Currency Traders to Sift Through
March 19, 2010
February 5th has become an important reference point for world financial markets. For one thing it was a Friday. Because currency trading is a 24-hour per day game, Friday closing levels provide a convenient opportunity to get a still picture of what’s happening. Also in early February, stock markets bottomed after a long-overdue, but comparatively [...] More
