Canadian Dollar
Better-Than-Forecast U.S. and Canadian Trade Figures in October
December 10, 2009
Canada and the United States do a huge amount a trade with one another, so their overall trade positions rarely improve together in the same month or, for that matter, worsen in tandem. The United States is Canada’s largest export and import market. Canada is the largest U.S. export market and the second largest origin [...] More
Canadian Monetary Policy Left Unchanged
December 8, 2009
Bank of Canada policymakers agreed once again to retain a 0.25% overnight money target and, contingent upon the correctness of its inflation outlook, not to raise that rate before mid-2010. The benchmark rate has been at 0.25% since a 25-bp rate cut on April 21. From a cyclical peak of 4.5%, such had been cut [...] More
Canadian Labor Market Turning Up?
December 4, 2009
Canada reported encouraging labor statistics. Canadian jobs jumped 79.1K last month, more than reversing a 43.2K drop in October, and such have risen 93.6K on balance over the last four reported months. Employment in November rose 37.9K among education workers and 73K for all service-sector workers, but manufacturing workers (up 12.6K) rose for the second [...] More
Canadian GDP Growth and PPI Inflation Lower Than Expected
November 30, 2009
Canada’s recession ended only barely last quarter, as net exports exerted a 5.3 percentage point (ppt) drag on the annualized growth of GDP. Growth of 0.4% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (saar) reflected positive contributions of 1.8 ppts from personal consumption, 1.9 ppts from government spending, 0.5 ppts each from residential investment and all [...] More
Canadian Labor Market Takes a Step Backward
November 6, 2009
Canada reported significantly worse-than-projected October labor market figures ninety minutes ahead of the highly anticipated U.S. labor force survey. The two data series tend not to dovetail exactly, but the Canadian figures are a reminder that all economies face a bumpy return to positive growth and, in most cases, atypically weak growth in the initial [...] More
Canadian Monetary Policy Report: The Rest of the Story
October 22, 2009
As always, the Bank of Canada quarterly review is extensive, and wire service headlines do not do justice to the nuggets and other insights that one finds inside the report. The statement released two days ago when an unchanged 0.25% overnight target rate was retained created a commotion in the market with the claim that current [...] More
Bank of Canada: No Rate Changes and No Surprises
October 20, 2009
The seventh of eight scheduled policy announcements in 2009 kept a target Canadian overnight rate of 0.25% and a Bank Rate of 0.5%. The promise not to lift those rates before mid-2010, contingent on inflation consistent with the Bank’s forecast, was also kept. These policy parameters were first put in place six months ago after [...] More
Bank of Canada Preview
October 19, 2009
The Bank of Canada’s overnight rate target hit a rock-bottom level of 0.25% in April, and officials then announced a commitment to hold the policy rate at that level until at least mid-2010. Tomorrow’s statement will reiterate that pledge not to tighten before mid-2010 even though officials have said it has become apparent that Canadian [...] More
U.S. and Canadian Trade
October 9, 2009
The U.S. goods and services trade deficit of $30.71 billion in August was similar to July’s $31.85 billion and the first-half pace of $29.24 billion per month. The deficit was also smaller than forecast. Exports firmed 0.2%, while imports fell 0.6% in August. On a census basis, the U.S. merchandise trade deficit of $310.2 billion in [...] More
Canadian Labor Statistics: Headlines Overstate Improvement
October 9, 2009
Employment jumped 30,600 in September on top of a 27.1K advance in August, and the jobless rate dropped by three-tenths to 8.4%, its first decline in 14 months. Those headlines surprised analysts, where conventional wisdom was looking for 8.8% unemployment and a moderate loss of jobs. But… The jobless rate fell in part because of a [...] More
