bond yields

August in Figures

August 31, 2019

The most discussed financial market development of August is actually not depicted in the standard month in figures table below, and that was the inversion of the U.S. yield curve, which has been a pretty reliable leading indicator of a recession beginning 18-24 months later. Between the end of July and August 30th, the U.S. […] More

January 2019 in Figures

January 31, 2019

Equities rebounded sharply in January from their December slump, and the price of crude oil (West Texas Intermediate) soared 18.2%. There were no central bank policy rate changes among the major economies surveyed in this monthly feature, but the Federal Reserve signaled a shift from rate normalization to one of patience with no more increases […] More

December and 2017 in Figures

January 1, 2019

Ten-year sovereign debt yields fell last month, resulting in end-2017 to end-2018 declines in Germany, Switzerland, Canada and Japan but end of year to end of year increases in both the United States and Great Britain. The Fed tightened its fed funds target rate four times by a total of one full percentage point last […] More

October in Figures

November 1, 2018

October was a¬†broadly strong month for the dollar but a bad one for global equities. Monetary policy rates did not change this past month in the U.S., Euroland, Japan, Great Britain or Switzerland, but 10-year sovereign debt yields rose in North America while falling in Europe, and staying unchanged in Japan. The price of West […] More

June and Second Quarter 2018 in Figures

June 29, 2018

The dominant market themes in June and 2Q were a sharp rise in the price of oil and a strengthening dollar, neither of which belongs in a recipe to accomplish President Trump’s quest to reduce the U.S. trade deficit sharply if not to zero. Dollar appreciation was particularly pronounced against the Chinese yuan. The federal […] More

March and First Quarter 2018 in Figures

March 31, 2018

March was a difficult month for equities, largely because of Fed tightening, U.S.-inspired geopolitical uncertainty, and trade war fears. Nevertheless, U.S. share price losses in the first quarter of 2018 were generally smaller than declines recorded in other countries. Despite higher short-term interest rates during March especially in the United States and Great Britain, year-to-date […] More

2017 and December in Figures

January 1, 2018

2017 was a stellar year for equity and commodity prices. The dollar declined broadly, consistent with President Trump’s intent to trim the U.S. trade deficit and despite three tightenings of Fed policy implemented in March, June and December. The ten-year Treasury yield rose less sharply than 3-month rates, which flattened the yield curve. The dollar […] More

July in Figures

July 31, 2017

On the final day of July, the Dow hit a record high, and the dollar touched its weakest level against the euro since January 14, 2015 and softest yen value since mid-June. July was a difficult month for the U.S. presidency, even by Trump standards. Also, the future path of Fed policy became less certain, […] More

May in Figures

June 1, 2017

U.S. and European sovereign debt yields fell during May. Short-term European interest rates also fell in contrast to a rise of the 3-month U.S. deposit rate. In Japan, rates rose at the long end but fell in short maturities. Stock markets improved in all markets examined here except Canada’s. The dollar climbed against sterling and […] More

January in Figures

January 31, 2017

The slumping dollar was the fulcrum of financial market activity in January. Dollar lows for the month were hit on January 31 against the euro, yen, Swiss franc, Australian dollar and kiwi, and the monthly highs occurred on either the third of second day of the months. From their lows to their highs, the Aussie […] More

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