Australian labor statistics

Investors Remain Very Risk Averse and Driven by Politics, Not Data

May 18, 2017

Sovereign debt yields continue to fall. In futures, the 10-year Treasury yield of 2.19% is down four more basis points and shows a 22-basis point plunge since the May 10th close. Comparable German bund and British gilt yields fell six and 3 basis points thus far today. The Japanese JGB is unchanged after data showing […] More

Markets React to ECB Minutes

February 16, 2017

Published minutes from the last ECB meeting (known as the ECB Account) allayed concerns that the recent spike in inflation to around the central bank’s target would not lead to an abandonment of the current easy stance. The rise of headline inflation was caused by energy and shows no visible sign of indirect or second […] More

Broad Financial Market Adjustments Intensify in Wake of FOMC Meeting

December 15, 2016

The dollar gained overnight by another 2.0% against the Australian dollar, 1.5% versus the euro, 1.6% vis-a-vis the kiwi, 1.2% relative to the yen, 0.9% against sterling, and 0.6% versus the yuan. Key levels are being approached such as parity with the euro, 120 yen, and 7 renminbi. Throughout the 8-year Obama stewardship, Republicans fought […] More

Markets Wonder What Yellen Will Say Today

November 17, 2016

Thursday is being dominated by Fed Chair Yellen’s morning testimony before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress. It will be her first remarks since Donald Trump was elected president on an agenda of more stimulative fiscal policy. She will not doubt be asked how such might affect the trajectory of central bank interest rates. Other […] More

Awaiting the ECB Meeting Decision and Press Conference

October 20, 2016

EUR/USD is unchanged ahead of the ECB announcement. A policy change is not expected. Central bank policymakers also reviewed stances in Turkey and Indonesia. The dollar has strengthened 0.3% against the yen. Japan’s Nikkei closed 1.4% higher, while the German Dax is up 0.3%. WTI oil settled back 1.0% to $51.07 per barrel. Comex gold […] More

Some Investor Caution Returns

April 14, 2016

Yesterday’s stock market rally carried into Asia but not Europe. Share prices rose 3.2% in Japan, 1.3% in Australia, 1.8% in South Korea, 1.9% in India and 0.5% in China. Equities in Europe have settled back 0.7% in Greece, 0.4% in Spain and Italy, and 0.1% in the U.K. and France.  The German Dax is […] More

Expressions of Concern

February 18, 2016

St. Louis Fed President Bullard, who had previously been urging interest rate normalization, gave a speech warning that further rate hikes would be risky in light of the continuing decline of market-based indicators of expected inflation and because a buildup of unhealthy asset bubbles has become less probable. A member of the Bank of Japan’s […] More

Central Banks, Data, and China All in the Spotlight

January 14, 2016

Following Wednesday’s U.S. stock market selloff, share prices fell 2.7% in Japan, 1.9% in Singapore, 1.6% in Australia, 1.0% in Taiwan, 0.9% in South Korea, 0.6% in New Zealand and 0.5% in Hong Kong.  Equities in Europe are currently down on the day by 3.2% in Greece, 2.8% in France, 2.7% in Germany, 2.4% in […] More

Focus on Both Data and Central Banks

December 10, 2015

The dollar showed a mixed performance overnight, falling by 1.0% and 0.6% against the Australian and New Zealand dollars, holding steady versus the yen and sterling, and rising 0.7% relative to the euro, 0.4% vis-a-vis the Swiss franc, 0.3% against the yuan and 0.1% versus the loonie. Japan’s Nikkei lost 1.3%.  Elsewhere in the Pacific Rim, […] More

Tug of War on EUR/USD

April 16, 2015

Across-the-board overnight losses in the dollar masks opposing forces on the key EUR/USD relationship. Relative to key European monies, the dollar on balance has lost 0.6% against sterling, 0.4% versus the euro and 0.2% relative to the Swiss franc. At one point, however, the dollar had retreated as far as 1.0764 against the euro but […] More

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