Aussie Dollar/Kiwi
Expecting Another Australian Rate Cut of At Least 100 Basis Points
February 2, 2009
At 03:30 GMT on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australian will unveil its fifth rate reduction in five months. The cash rate peaked at 7.25% but will sink to a near 50-year low of 3.25% or below. There were previous cuts of 100 basis points in December and October, 75 bps in November and 25 […] More
New Zealand Cash Rate Slashed by Another 150 Basis Points
January 28, 2009
In less than ten weeks, the cash rate of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has dropped from 7.5% to 3.5% with drops of 100 basis points on November 23rd and of 150 basis points each on December 4th and today. One needs to look no further than that to grasp how worried monetary officials […] More
Expected Economic Growth in 2009
January 12, 2009
The Economist conducts a survey of forecasters each month, soliciting estimates of key economic trends including GDP growth. The table below of the results of the last six surveys illustrates the rapidly deteriorating outlook in the Group of Seven and Australia. The figures depict projected 2009 growth in GDP. The recession was only a month […] More
Thursday Data Highlights
December 10, 2008
In addition to several central bank interest rate meetings, tomorrow sees the release of some economic indicators of interest. Chinese consumer prices take on added importance after the surprisingly sharp decline in producer price inflation reported today to 2.0% y/y in November from 6.6% in October and 10.1% in August. The United States and Canada […] More
New Zealand Cash Rate Cut to 5.0% from 6.5%
December 4, 2008
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand like other recent central banks chose a bold option, topping the size of its three prior cuts — 25 basis points in July, 50 bps in September and 100 bps in October — as well as reductions earlier this week of 100 basis points each by the central banks […] More
Another Big New Zealand Rate Cut Expected
December 2, 2008
Opinion is split over whether the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will slash its 6.5% cash rate to 5.5% or 5.0%. The announcement will be made at 02:00 GMT Thursday (09:00 local time and 21:00 Eastern Standard Time Wednesday in the United States). Like Australia, this will be the fourth reduction in this easing cycle. […] More
Reserve Bank of Australia Cuts Cash Rate to 4.25% From 5.25%
December 2, 2008
The 100-basis point reduction was slightly above consensus, although matched several forecasts including my own. There have been four cuts since September 2nd, totaling 300 basis points. The new 4.25% level matches the last cyclical low from Dec 2001 to May 2002 and is 50 basis points lower than the prior two cyclical lows of […] More
Australian Central Bank Rate Cut Forecast: 100 Basis Points
December 1, 2008
A drop of 100 basis points to 4.25% is near the high end of expectations. There were earlier easings of 25 basis points on September 2nd, 100 bps on October 7th, and 75 bps on November 4th. 4.25% would match the previous cyclical low from December 2001 to May 2002. The debate at the November […] More
Central Banks Explain Radical Policy Shifts: First Australia
November 12, 2008
The Reserve Bank of Australia was hesitant about easing monetary policy with inflation still cresting. That central bank made its final two hikes during 1Q08 of a multi-year, 300-basis point tightening, and the resulting 7.25% cash rate was maintained for a half-year, as officials warned that a rising terms of trade and fiscal package would […] More
Expected 2009 Growth Trimmed Symmetrically
November 10, 2008
Results of the latest consensus forecasts have been published in The Economist. That paper conducts a survey every month. Projected growth for 2009 is substantially lower in the November survey than in October’s, with many figures in the red. The size of the latest revisions and the new levels are similar for Japan, Euroland and […] More
