Aussie Dollar/Kiwi

No Change in Australian Monetary Policy

May 5, 2009

The Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate at 3.0%.  While meeting consensus expectations, investors also took note of a surprisingly upbeat and ambivalent statement.  In such, officials spoke of more stable world financial markets, noting rising equities and declining term spreads.  While reiterating that Australia has been in a recession since the latter […] More

Preview of Australian Cash Rate Decision

May 4, 2009

It’s a closer call than generally realized whether the central bank cuts the cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% or leaves such at 3.0%. I give a marginal edge, but only that, to the street consensus of no change and would consider such to be a pause in easing, not the end of […] More

Dovish Statement From Reserve Bank of New Zealand

April 30, 2009

While cutting their cash rate by the expected 50-basis point increment, New Zealand monetary officials surprised market observers in two ways.  Like the Bank of Canada earlier this month, they pledged not to raise the benchmark rate above its new level until at least the second half of 2010.  They also left open the door […] More

Reserve Bank of Australia Reduces Cash Rate 25 Basis Points

April 7, 2009

After a one-month pause in March, Australia’s central bank implemented the sixth rate cut since September but opted for a reduction of only 25 basis points to 3.0%.  The four prior cuts had been moves of 100 basis points in February, December and October and of 75 basis points in November.  The initial easing on […] More

Australian Central Bank Preview

April 6, 2009

The Reserve Bank paused at its March policy meeting but is likely to cut rates Tuesday by 25-50 basis points.  The central bank’s cash rate target had been cut at each of the five successive meetings from 7.25% at end-August to a 45-year low of 3.25% at the February 3rd meeting.  Three of the cuts […] More

50-Bp New Zealand Rate Cut to 3.0% Matches Modal Market Forecast

March 11, 2009

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand Cash rate was cut for the sixth time, dropping to 3.0% from 3.5% and a peak of 8.25% prior to last July 24th.  “Inflation pressure is abating rapidly” in response to global and domestic recessions.  All segments of New Zealand’s economy are very weak at the moment.  However, forward-looking […] More

Awaiting a New Zealand Rate Cut

March 10, 2009

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to cut its cash rate by 50-100 basis points to 2.5-3.0%.  The announcement of this sixth rate of of the cycle will be made at 20:GMT today (09:00 locally on Wednesday).  Estimates of the size of the cut range from 50 basis points to a full percentage […] More

Reserve Bank of Australia Surprises Market

March 3, 2009

The RBA left its cash rate at 3.25%, 313 basis points higher than the Fed’s target and 175 bps above the ECB target assuming a 50-bp cut by that institution on Thursday. The RBA has already cut its benchmark by 400 bps since September and considers fiscal stimulus in train to be substantial.  Analysts had […] More

Reserve Bank of Australia

March 2, 2009

For the first time in several months, analysts had been somewhat split over whether the RBA will cut its cash rate again this month.  I expect another rate reduction.  The decision will be revealed at 03:30 GMT tonight (22:30 EST and 14:30 AEDT Tuesday).  The central bank previously cut the benchmark by 400 basis points […] More

Australian Cash Rate Reduced 100 Basis Points to 3.25%

February 3, 2009

The 100-basis point size of today’s Australian rate cut was as expected and followed an earlier unveiling of a A$ 42 billion fiscal stimulus by the government, its second of the crisis. This was the fifth rate reduction since September, cumulating to 300 basis points from the prior peak of 7.25%.  The four previous moves […] More