Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week

July 27, 2018

Central Banks: The Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan lead a list of central banks reviewing monetary policy next week that also includes centrals in India, the Czech Republic, Sri Lanka, Brazil, and Mexico. An updated BOJ Outlook will be published, and Governor Kuroda will  hold a press conference. Governor Carney of […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Dollar, U.S. Stocks, and Treasury Yields Little Changed After Strong U.S. GDP Report

July 27, 2018

U.S. GDP expanded 4.1% last quarter at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate. That was the fastest quarterly pace since the third quarter of 2014, but analysts had anticipated such a figure. Personal consumption, non-residential investment and government spending climbed 4.0%, 7.3% and 2.1%, respectively. Net foreign demand augmented the growth rate by 1.1 percentage points […] More

Central Bank Watch

No Change in ECB Policy Stance

July 26, 2018

The Governing Council’s fifth of eight scheduled meetings in 2018 ended as expected with no change in its policy stance. A released statement is upbeat about prospects for inflation rising back to its targeted pace but balances that confidence with the continuing assertion that it is conditioned upon a continuing stimulative policy — The underlying strength […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Facebook Plunges, ECB and OPEC Review Things, and a U.S.-EU Trade Accord Is More Truce than Agreement

July 26, 2018

The ballooning credibility gap of Facebook finally hit the company’s share price, which has tumbled 19.4% so far today from $217.50 to $178.28. Alphabet, the parent of Google, is down 4.3%, but the DOW is up 0.5%. The ECB Governing Council reviewed its policy stance and decided not to change such. The ECB interest rate […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Softer Dollar and Share Prices

July 25, 2018

The dollar fell 0.8% overnight against the peso and 0.5% versus the yuan, and it has slipped 0.3% against the loonie, 0.1% vis-a-vis the Australian dollar, and 0.2% relative to the yen, euro, Swiss franc, kiwi, and sterling. Share price losses amount to 0.3% in Taiwan and South Korea, 0.8% in the U.K., 0.6% in […] More

Central Bank Watch

No Turkish Interest Rate Hike This Month

July 24, 2018

Amid a vicious circle of currency depreciation and accelerating inflation, policymakers at the Central Bank of Turkey had hiked their benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points in April, 300 bps at an unscheduled conference on May 24, and 125 bps on June 7. This restraint had slowed but not halted market trends. Inflation rose […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Turkish Lira Slumps while Global Equities Perform Better

July 24, 2018

Turkey’s sharp monetary tightening in May and June was unexpectedly not extended further this month, and the lira fell as much as 4% today. Turkish bond prices also fell sharply. Turkey’s 14-year CPI inflation high of 15.4% is still cresting. In yet another state under authoritarian rule, Hungary’s central bank also left monetary policy unchanged […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

The Trump Factor Strengthens Dollar but Depresses Global Stocks This Monday

July 23, 2018

Today’s menu of market-moving factors has been short on data but long on Trump pot stirring. The U.S. president over the weekend Questioned the Fed policy of rate normalization. Presidential criticisms of monetary policy are infrequent because such can often backfire, but precedents do exist. Bush41 criticized Fed tightening in 1989-90 and later blamed Greenspan […] More

Larry's Blog

Yanks May Be Hunting for a Pitcher via Trade But Such Acquisitions Tend to Be Hit or Miss

July 20, 2018

A theme in the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry this year is that the Yankees, who have an abundance of talented position players in the minors, will acquire a top gun pitcher to fortify their suspect starting rotation before the end-of-July deadline for non-waiver player trades. Such moves carry two risks. First, the Yankees have a checkered […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week

July 20, 2018

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews at the European Central Bank (followed by ECB President Draghi’s press conference) and in Turkey, Hungary, Colombia, Chile and Russia. St. Louis Fed President Bullard speaks publicly. Events: OPEC oil ministers meeting and a meeting of Euroland finance ministers. Scheduled U.S. Statistical Releases: 2Q GDP, existing home sales, new home sales, […] More

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