Deeper Analysis

Trade War Concerns Affected U.S. and Euroland Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Indices Equally in September

October 1, 2018

In September, the ISM-Compiled factory PMI index fell 1.5 points to 61.3, while the IHS-compiled euro area PMI dropped 1.4 points to 54.6. The manufacturing sectors continued to improve, but the lower scores in each economy reflects a reduced rate of improvement in operating conditions. And America’s relative advantage was preserved, but the data do […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Fourth Quarter Opens with Japanese Tankan Survey and a Slew of Manufacturing PMI Surveys

October 1, 2018

China will be closed all week, commemorating the communist revolution of 1949. Hong Kong’s market was similarly shut, and so was Australia’s due to Labour Day and the Queen’s Birthday observance there. A three-country Nafta remake including Canada as well as Mexico was fashioned at the last minute. Changes from the original deal were less […] More

Deeper Analysis

September and Third Quarter in Figures

September 29, 2018

Central bank policy rates were raised during the third quarter in the United States, U.K., and Canada but left unchanged in Japan, Switzerland and Euroland. Nevertheless, long-term interest rates climbed noticeably in all six of those economies. Thus, 10-year differentials between the U.S. and the other countries didn’t shift all that much. Moreover, the squeeze […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week

September 28, 2018

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews in Australia, India, Iceland, Poland, Sri Lanka, Romania and Mexico. Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey of corporate conditions and expectations will be published Monday. Powell, Mester, Rosengren, Barkin, Evans and Quarles are among the Fed officials speaking in public next week. Holidays and Events: China is shut all week […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Quarter-End Rush of Data, Italian Fiscal Concerns, and U.S. Supreme Court Drama

September 28, 2018

The new populist government of Five Star in Italy passed a stimulative budget, with a deficit equal to 2.4% of GDP and well above what Italy’s Euroland colleagues wanted to see. In response, the country’s 10-year sovereign debt yield leaped 33 basis points to 3.22%, while the comparable Greek sovereign debt yield went up 16 […] More

Central Bank Watch

Bank Indonesia Tightens Again

September 27, 2018

Amid continuing domestic demand-led growth, a greater-than-desired current account deficit, and and external environment that puts many emerging market currencies and the financial markets at some risks, Bank Indonesia’s Board of Governors sanctioned a fifth hike of the seven-day reverse repo rate from its past six meetings. The rate, which now becomes 5.75%, has now […] More

Central Bank Watch

50-Basis Point Increase in Filipino Overnight Reverse Repo Central Bank Rate

September 27, 2018

The Monetary Board at Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas raised its key interest rate at a fourth straight scheduled monthly meeting and did so in the face of mounting inflationary risk that has persuaded officials to envisage a higher inflationary path going immediately forward. According to a released statement, today’s 50-basis point rate hike and 100 […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

All Eyes on the Senate Judiciary Committee

September 27, 2018

The testimonies of Kavanaugh and Blassey Ford start at 10:00 EDT (14:00 GMT). This has been a busy day already from a central banking and data release standpoint. The dollar overnight firmed by 0.7% against the Swiss franc, 0.6% relative to the Aussie dollar, 0.5% vis-a-vis the euro and loonie, 0.3% against the kiwi, 0.2% […] More

Central Bank Watch

FOMC Statement and Forecasts

September 26, 2018

The Federal Open Market Committee as expected raised its federal funds target by a quarter percentage point to a range of 2.00 – 2.25%. The released statement Repeated the same first paragraph used after the August 1 statement, which deals with economic conditions. Made no changes to the second paragraph that projects how its mandate […] More

Central Bank Watch

FOMC Preview

September 26, 2018

Markets have already priced in the Fed’s eighth increase of the federal funds target to a range of 2.0-2.25%. The increment of each hike has been 25 basis points, so today’s likely move will complete two full percentage points of tightening and be probably enough to warrant deletion in today’s FOMC statement of a characterization of […] More

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