New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Share Prices Down as U.S. and China Exchange Mutually Destructive Tariff Threats

May 9, 2019

It’s crunch time in the U.S.-Sino trade negotiations, and investors are hedging against the worst. The dollar climbed 0.6% against the yuan overnight. The price of Comex gold firmed another 0.2%, while WTI oil slid 0.3% and under $62. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield popped higher after a poorly received Treasury auction yesterday but then […] More

Central Bank Watch

Central Bank of Malaysia Eases Monetary Policy While Bank of Thailand Passes

May 8, 2019

Bank Negara Malaysia’s Overnight Policy Rate was sliced to 3.0%, reversing a 25-basis point hike engineered in January 2018 and restoring the stance that had existed from July 2015 until that change in early 2018. A released statement notes, “there are some signs of tightening of financial conditions. The adjustment to the OPR is therefore […] More

Central Bank Watch

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Cuts Official Cash Rate to 1.50% from 1.75%

May 8, 2019

Today’s central bank interest rate cut is the eighth of this easing cycle but the first since a similar-sized reduction 30 months earlier. Quarter percentage point cuts also were made in June, July, September and October of 2015 and in March and June of 2016. Policy continues to have a downside bias. A released statement […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Monetary Policy Reviews, an Intensifying U.S. Political Crisis, Trade Talks, and Some Data Surprises

May 8, 2019

Central bank officials in New Zealand and Malaysia cut their interest rates, while those in Thailand maintained an “accommodative but appropriate” 1.75% rate level. Thailand’s growth outlook was revised downward, but the inflation prognosis wasn’t changed. New Zealand’s official cash rate was lowered 25 basis points to 1.5%. Such had been 1.75% since November 2016. […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Dollar Movement Has Become Unremarkable

May 7, 2019

After a system of fixed dollar parities against other major currencies was replaced by market-determined flexible exchange rates in March 1973, currency trading attracted considerable investor and business attention amid a propensity toward wide and erratic dollar swings that could overwhelm the profitability of business decisions based on other considerations. The dollar not only exhibited […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

A Focus on Geopolitical Risk

May 7, 2019

U.S.-Sino trade talks are entering the final make-or-break stage. The Chinese delegation is coming to America, but the outcome of this final round of negotiations is much in doubt. Meanwhile, Secretary of State Pompeo abruptly canceled a trip to Germany, citing unspecified pressing matters. This mysterious cancelation raises the possibility of a major event risk […] More

Deeper Analysis

U.S. Nonmanufacturing PMI Compared to Euroland Services PMI

May 6, 2019

In the United States in April, non-manufacturing activity grew somewhat more slowly than in March but more rapidly than the manufacturing sector was expanding. Sub-indices for orders, jobs and prices grew more slowly last month, but the growth of production quickened. April service sector activity in the euro area similarly contrasted favorably with the region’s […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Trump Tweets on Trade Slam Equities and Lift the Dollar

May 6, 2019

On the presumed eve of high level U.S.-Sino trade talks, President Trump has threatened to raise the tariff on $200 billion of Chinese imports by 15 percentage points to 25% and to impose tariffs on $325 billion of other imports from China, and he set an or-else deadline of this Friday for a satisfactory deal […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week

May 3, 2019

Central Banks: Monetary policy meetings scheduled in Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Brazil, Peru, Chile, Norway and Serbia. Australia’s central bank will publish the quarterly Monetary Policy Statement, and Bank of Japan Board minutes get released. Bostic, Evans and Harker are some of the Federal Reserve officials speaking publicly next week, and so […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Euroland Inflation Accelerated to a 5-Month High…. Next Up: U.S. Jobs Report

May 3, 2019

The dollar rose 0.3% overnight against the euro but remains unchanged versus the yen, loonie, kiwi, and yuan. The dollar also edged up 0.2% relative to sterling and 0.1% vis-a-vis the Australian dollar and Swiss franc. Investors await the U.S. monthly jobs data for new direction. Markets were still closed Friday in China for Labor […] More

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