New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Risk Back On

November 7, 2019

A claim was made by a Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesman that the U.S. and China have agreed to a phased and mutual reduction of trade deficits but only contingent on a trade deal being done. Stock markets are up 0.7% in Germany, 1.0% in Australia, 0.7% in Singapore, 0.6% in Hong Kong, 0.5% in India, […] More

Central Bank Watch

Bank of Thailand’s Interest Rate Reduced 25 Basis points to 1.25%

November 6, 2019

By a 5-2 vote, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Thailand cut its 1-day repo rate by 25 basis points to a 9-year low of 1.25%. There were two dissents favoring no change in rate. It is hoped that lower central bank rates will counter the drag of an appreciated baht this year […] More

Central Bank Watch

Another Icelandic Central Bank Rate Cut

November 6, 2019

The Central Bank of Iceland’s 7-day term rate was chopped 25 basis points to 3.0%. Along with earlier reductions of 25 bps in October, August and June and a 50-basis point cut in May, that brings this year’s total decline to 150 basis points. A released statement suggests that the rate may now be appropriately […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

A Steady Dollar

November 6, 2019

The dollar on balance remains near Tuesday closing levels. Gold is 0.3% firmer. The spate of recent increases in 10-year sovereign debt yields was reversed today with 3-basis point declines in U.S. Treasuries and British gilt yields and a dip of 1 basis point in the 10-year German bund yield. The Japanese 10-year JGB yield, […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Higher Bond Yields

November 5, 2019

Ten-year sovereign debt yields advanced by another five basis points overnight in Japan and the United States, by 3 bps in Germany and 1 basis point in Great Britain. The dollar fell 0.4% against the Chinese currency, edging back marginally under 7.0 yuan per dollar. Elsewhere, the dollar advanced 0.4% against the Swiss franc and […] More

Deeper Analysis

Only a Slight U.S. Factory Sector Advantage Versus Euroland

November 4, 2019

The ISM-compiled U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index in October rose 0.5 index points to a 2-month high of 48.3, and Euroland’s IHS-compiled PMI edged 0.2 points higher to 45.9, which also represents a 2-month high. The differential between those two data series of 2.4 points in favor of the United States was similar to the […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Risk On Mood Continuing

November 4, 2019

Friday saw share prices rally on trade optimism and the aversion thus far of a hard Brexit. Subsequent official comments from U.S. and Chinese officials did not dash investor hopes, and Euroland PMI data suggest that the downturn in manufacturing did not intensify last month. Japanese markets were closed today for the Culture Day holiday. […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week’s Menu: November 2-8, 2019

November 2, 2019

Central Banks: Monetary policy meetings scheduled in the U.K., Peru, India, Australia, Czech Republic, Romania, Poland, Iceland, Thailand, Malaysia and Serbia. Bank of Japan Board minutes and Reserve Bank of Australia’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy to be published. Following Fed officials to speak publicly: Barkin, Bostic, Williams, Evans, Kaplan, and Daly. ECB President Lagarde […] More

Deeper Analysis

Manufacturing Around the World as Depicted by October Purchasing Manager Surveys

November 2, 2019

The soft data provided by various and sundry purchasing manager surveys reported each month provide an early sign of economic conditions whose signals may or may not be confirmed by subsequent hard data. Although manufacturing covers a comparatively small piece of total activity, the other parts are dependent upon the health of manufacturing such that […] More

Deeper Analysis

October in Figures

October 31, 2019

The intensification of risk related to U.S.-Sino trade talks and Brexit that happened in September receded partly in October. Monthend came and went without the U.K. leaving the EU either with or without a deal, and sufficient progress in the trade talks forestalled the threat of sharp tariff increases at least for a while. Impeachment […] More

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