New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Down Day for Stocks and Dollar

April 11, 2018

Military conflict between U.S. and Russian forces in Syria appears at hand. Trump is promising missile strikes, and Russia claims to have the ability to knock them out of the sky before targets are hit. Investors are uneasy that these hostilities will escalate further. U.S. consumer price inflation accelerated further in March in spite of […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Stocks Again Reverse Direction… Yen and Dollar Decline

April 10, 2018

A strong Monday session in stocks was almost completely squandered in the last hour of trading by a 300 point drop of the Dow. Once again, the index opened sharply higher on Tuesday and is currently 1.6% higher on the day. Elsewhere, share prices gained 2.2% in Hong Kong, 1.7% in China, 1.3% in Indonesia […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

U.S. Current Account, GDP and the Dollar

April 9, 2018

The U.S. current account deficit has been in a manageable and safe range since 2012. As a percentage of nominal GDP, it ranged between 2.2% and 2.7% during the last three calendar years, including 2.4% in 2017, 2016, and 2013. The ratio had been higher in the first three years of the current economic upswing […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Market Focused on Russia, China and Hungary

April 9, 2018

Amid concern over the impact of economic sanctions against Russia, the dollar has appreciated 3% against the ruble, and Russian equities plunged some 11% today. Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg will be testifying before Congress tomorrow and Wednesday. Expectations about how trade tensions between the United States and China get resolved continue to see-saw day-by-day, if […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week

April 6, 2018

Central Banks: Policy meetings in Poland, Ukraine, South Korea, Serbia, Peru and Mexico. Policy meeting minutes to be released by European Central Bank and the Federal Open Market Committee. Chicago Federal Reserve President Evans, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe, and Bank of England Governor Carney speak publicly. Scheduled U.S. Economic Statistical Releases: Consumer prices, […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

U.S. Jobs Day but That’s Been Overshadowed by Re-escalating Trade Tensions

April 6, 2018

Forecasters anticipate the U.S. March labor market data will show creation of almost 200K jobs, a further small dip in the unemployment rate, and a pickup of hourly wage earnings growth. Share prices and commodity prices fell overnight in response to fresh concern that the U.S.-Sino trade dispute cannot be negotiated away. President Trump has […] More

Deeper Analysis

U.S. Nonmanufacturing PMI Survey and Euroland Services PMI Survey Show Slower Rates of Expansion in March

April 5, 2018

The ISM-compiled U.S. non-manufacturing purchasing managers index slipped back 0.7 points to a 3-month low in March 0f 58.8, which was still very robust. Increases of 1.6 points in the employment sub-index and 0.5 points in prices mitigated declines of 5.3 points in orders and 2.2 points in sales. The IHS-compiled Euroland services PMI dropped […] More

Central Bank Watch

Reserve Bank of India

April 5, 2018

The RBI Monetary Policy Committee’s first bimonthly policy statement of fiscal 2018/19 notes that the future trajectory of CPI inflation now seems likely to be somewhat lower than that imagined two months ago due lower food and fuel costs. Inflation of 4.4% in February was close to the 4% medium-term target midpoint. But domestic demand […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

The Fickle Nature of Investor Anxiety about a Trade War

April 5, 2018

Flip-flopping attitudes about the likelihood of a full-fledged intensifying trade war between China and the United States continues to be a big source of day-to-day changes in market behavior. There was panic earlier this week. Today, investors believe Trump and Jinping will negotiate a truce and forestall a trade meltdown. One problem with such optimism […] More

Central Bank Watch

National Bank of Romania

April 4, 2018

Following back-to-back quarter percentage point hikes in Romania’s monetary policy rate, now 2.25%, during January and February, central bank officials left the rate unchanged at today’s review. The 1.4 percentage point acceleration of Romanian CPI inflation between December and February had been along lines that officials had anticipated. The latest assessments reconfirm the outlook for […] More

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