Moody’s Downgrades China… FOMC Minutes Due

May 24, 2017

Only industrial metal prices have reacted much to news that Moody’s downgraded its Chinese credit rating for the first time in nearly 30 years. Commodities have been the main mover today. Comex gold fell 0.3% to $1,251.70 per ounce. Industrial metal prices like nickel, iron ore, and copper tumbled much more steeply. But WTI oil […] More

Better European Data, More Leaked Allegations on Trump, and a Terrorist Bomb Attack

May 23, 2017

The German business climate index compiled by the IFO Economic Institute increased 1.6 points in May to the highest level since German unification, a reading of 114.6. Current conditions went up 1.9 points, and expectations climbed 1.3 points in the latest month, prompting IFO officials to call the business mood euphoric and the pace of […] More

National Bank of Romania

April 5, 2017

Romania’s monetary policy rate has been 1.75% since a 25-basis point cut in May 2015. This month was saw the fifteenth consecutive Board meeting without an interest rate change. From April 2014 to the May 2015 cut, the interest rate had been halved from 3.5% to 1.75%. Today’s released statement notes that inflation finally moved […] More

Dollar, Stocks, and Bond Yields Drop

March 27, 2017

Markets reacted poorly to the scrapped U.S. health care bill. Disappointment transcends Trump’s inability to secure this promised deal. The repeal and replacement of Obamacare was intended to generate cost savings to the government needed to finance planned tax cuts. Tax reform will now be associated with larger fiscal deficits than had been planned, so […] More

Lots of U.S. Data and a Yellen Press Conference This Ides of March

March 15, 2017

The Federal Reserve will release new macroeconomic forecasts and  is expected to raise the fed funds target at 18:00 GMT, and the press conference begins a half hour later. The dollar softened overnight by 0.6% against the peso, 0.5% versus sterling, 0.4% relative to the New Zealand and Australian dollars, 0.3% vis-a-vis the loonie and […] More

Fed and Flynn

February 15, 2017

Markets are trading on two themes primarily: How quickly will the Fed raise interest rates again? Yellen’s testimony yesterday and separate remarks by Fed District Presidents Kaplan and Lacker suggest a third increase is coming pretty soon and need not be delayed pending clarification of fiscal and other policy changes. Yellen reprises her testimony before the […] More

FOMC Preview

February 1, 2017

Today’s Federal Open Market Committee statement on monetary policy, due at 14:00 GMT, is not expected to raise interest rates. For the first time, that was done at the prior meeting on December 13-14. At least 2, and possibly 3 or 4, increases will occur in 2017 barring an unforeseen large shock. Today’s statement will […] More

Magyar Nemzeti Bank

January 24, 2017

Hungary’s central bank base rate has been at 0.90% since a third consecutive monthly cut 0f 15 basis points administered last May. Officials voted at this month’s meeting not to change the rate. While discussing circumstances that might warrant a further easing in the future through unconventional means, a released statement makes no asymmetric hint […] More

Non-Manufacturing Activity in the U.S. and Euro Area

January 5, 2017

The U.S. non-manufacturing purchasing managers index remained flat at 57.2 in December. Not since October 2015 has the NMI been higher than this level. In December, a 4.6-point improvement in the sub-index for new business to 61.6 was counterbalanced with a 4.4-point drop in jobs to a reading of 53.8. Along with today’s smaller-than-forecast ADP estimate […] More

Bank Indonesia

December 15, 2016

From 6.25% at the start of 2016, the BI seven-day reverse repo rate was cut by 25 basis points each in January, February, March, June, September and October to the current level of 4.75%, which was held steady at this month’s meeting. The next meeting will be in February, as January is always skipped. Today’s […] More