Uncategorized
Peso Panic and Some Deescalation of the U.S.-Sino Trade dispute
August 13, 2019
Sunday’s primary election in Argentina served notice that populism is making a big comeback there and has generated a stampede out of the peso (down nearly 22%) and local stocks, whose share prices tumbled nearly 50% and by the second largest day-to-day slump in seven decades. Investors fear a return to protectionism and other state […] More
February in Figures
February 28, 2019
Sterling and the dollar strengthened during February. Ten-year sovereign debt yields rose slightly more sharply in the month than their counterparts in the other countries featured in the table below, but none of the central bank rates among them were changed. Equities in most of the places continued to recover, although not as much as […] More
Dollar Softer Ahead of FOMC Decision and After U.S. Current Account Release
December 19, 2018
Despite weaker data and pressure from Trump, the Federal Open Market Committee is expected to announce the fourth rate hike of 2018 later today but to couch such within more accommodative forward guidance regarding likely policy in 2019. The U.S. current account deficit jumped to $124.8 billion in the third quarter from $101.2 billion in […] More
Next Week
December 7, 2018
Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews are scheduled at the European Central Bank and at central banks in Switzerland, Brazil, Iceland, Norway, the Philippines, Ukraine, Turkey and Russia. The Bank of Japan publishes findings of its quarterly Tankan survey of corporate conditions and expectations, and Fed Chairman’s postponed testimony before the congressional joint economic committee will […] More
Mixed U.S. Data, Lots of Other Data, and Ever-present Worries about The Mueller Investigation and U.S.-Sino Trade Strains
November 29, 2018
U.S. personal income rose 0.5% last month, a 7-month high. Personal consumption expenditures went up even more robustly, 0.6%, and the core PCE price deflator measure of U.S. inflation settled back 0.1 percentage point to 1.8%. On the other hand, U.S. pending home sales sank 2.6% to a near four-year low and recorded an on-year […] More
Bracing for Hurricane Florence, Higher Tariffs, More Fed Restraint and Ultimately Inflation
September 12, 2018
The Carolinas are expected to be slammed by a storm of historical proportions with 100+ MPH winds, a huge storm surge, and Harvey-like rainfall. Landfall is predicted late Thursday/early Friday. President Trump has hinted that a colossal new round of tariffs may be announced this week. The Federal Open Market Committee’s next policy meeting is […] More
Stronger Equities But Softer Dollar
June 4, 2018
Stocks advanced overnight by 1.9% in Hong Kong, 1.5% in Taiwan, 1.4% in Japan, 1.2% in Singapore, 0.6% in Australia, 0.5% in China and 0.4% in South Korea. New Zealand’s market was shut in observance of the Queen’s Birthday, and the Indian Sensex index dropped 0.6%. In Europe, equities have jumped 1.8% in Spain and […] More
Bank of England
May 10, 2018
The latest Monetary Policy Committee meeting ended without any change in the 0.5% Base Rate or in the Bank of England’s GBP 10 billion of corporate bond purchases and GBP 435 billion ceiling on gilt purchases. The released statement explaining this decision was accompanied by a new quarterly Inflation Report. After the MPC last reviewed […] More
Markets Continue to React to Friday’s Good U.S. Jobs Report
March 12, 2018
Equity markets made broad gains in the Pacific Rim, advancing 2.0% in Hong Kong, 1.8% in India, 1.7% in Japan, 1.6% in Singapore, 1.3% in Taiwan, 1.1% in Indonesia and New Zealand, 1.0% in South Korea, and 0.6% in China and Australia. Likewise, stocks are up 1.8% in Greece, 0.7% in Germany, 0.6% in Spain, […] More
Next Week
February 23, 2018
Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews in South Korea, Israel, Ukraine, and Hungary. Fed Chairman Powell’s initial semi-annual Humphrey Hawkins testimony (Wednesday before the House Financial Services Committee and Thursday before the Senate Banking Committee). Fed also publishes its Beige Book of regional economic conditions. Manufacturing Purchasing Manager February Surveys: China, U.S., Japan, U.K, Euroland, Germany, […] More
