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Next Week’s Menu: October 12-18

October 11, 2019

Central Banks: The Bank of Korea has a scheduled monetary policy review, and the Federal Reserve Beige Book and minutes from this month’s Reserve Bank of Australia Board meeting get published. Fed district presidents Bostic, Kaplan, Bullard and Evans are some of the U.S. central bank officials with public speaking opportunities during the week. Foreign […] More

FOMC Statement and Updated Forecasts

September 18, 2019

The federal funds target range as expected was lowered another 25 basis points to 1.75-2.0%. In the opening paragraph of the FOMC statement that describes economic conditions, investment and export demand were dowgraded to “have weakened,” while personal consumption was upgraded to a stronger pace. Similar to the statement at end-July when the initial easing was […] More

Rate Cut in Turkey

September 12, 2019

Policymakers at the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey slashed the one-week repo rate by a greater-than-expected 325 basis points in follow-up to a 425-basis point cut in July from a peak of 24.0% that had prevailed since a 625-basis point increase in September of 2018. The rate now becomes 16.5%, which the monetary […] More

Peso Panic and Some Deescalation of the U.S.-Sino Trade dispute

August 13, 2019

Sunday’s primary election in Argentina served notice that populism is making a big comeback there and has generated a stampede out of the peso (down nearly 22%) and local stocks, whose share prices tumbled nearly 50% and by the second largest day-to-day slump in seven decades. Investors fear a return to protectionism and other state […] More

February in Figures

February 28, 2019

Sterling and the dollar strengthened during February. Ten-year sovereign debt yields rose slightly more sharply in the month than their counterparts in the other countries featured in the table below, but none of the central bank rates among them were changed. Equities in most of the places continued to recover, although not as much as […] More

Dollar Softer Ahead of FOMC Decision and After U.S. Current Account Release

December 19, 2018

Despite weaker data and pressure from Trump, the Federal Open Market Committee is expected to announce the fourth rate hike of 2018 later today but to couch such within more accommodative forward guidance regarding likely policy in 2019. The U.S. current account deficit jumped to $124.8 billion in the third quarter from $101.2 billion in […] More

Next Week

December 7, 2018

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews are scheduled at the European Central Bank and at central banks in Switzerland, Brazil, Iceland, Norway, the Philippines, Ukraine, Turkey and Russia. The Bank of Japan publishes findings of its quarterly Tankan survey of corporate conditions and expectations, and Fed Chairman’s postponed testimony before the congressional joint economic committee will […] More

Mixed U.S. Data, Lots of Other Data, and Ever-present Worries about The Mueller Investigation and U.S.-Sino Trade Strains

November 29, 2018

U.S. personal income rose 0.5% last month, a 7-month high. Personal consumption expenditures went up even more robustly, 0.6%, and the core PCE price deflator measure of U.S. inflation settled back 0.1 percentage point to 1.8%. On the other hand, U.S. pending home sales sank 2.6% to a near four-year low and recorded an on-year […] More

Bracing for Hurricane Florence, Higher Tariffs, More Fed Restraint and Ultimately Inflation

September 12, 2018

The Carolinas are expected to be slammed by a storm of historical proportions with 100+ MPH winds, a huge storm surge, and Harvey-like rainfall. Landfall is predicted late Thursday/early Friday. President Trump has hinted that a colossal new round of tariffs may be announced this week. The Federal Open Market Committee’s next policy meeting is […] More

Stronger Equities But Softer Dollar

June 4, 2018

Stocks advanced overnight by 1.9% in Hong Kong, 1.5% in Taiwan, 1.4% in Japan, 1.2% in Singapore, 0.6% in Australia, 0.5% in China and 0.4% in South Korea. New Zealand’s market was shut in observance of the Queen’s Birthday, and the Indian Sensex index dropped 0.6%. In Europe, equities have jumped 1.8% in Spain and […] More

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