Uncategorized

Reserve Bank of India

June 7, 2017

For a fourth straight Monetary Policy Committee meeting, the key repo interest rates in India was kept at 6.25%. Such had been reduced by 125 basis points in 2015 and by a further 25 basis points in April and October of 2016. The Reserve Bank of India has a medium-term inflation target of 4.0%, and […] More

Soft Tone in Sterling, Sovereign Debt Yields, Oil and Stocks

May 26, 2017

Sterling fell 0.7% against the dollar overnight in response to a new poll showing just a 5-point spread between Prime Minister May’s Conservatives and the Labor Party; the spread earlier had been over 20 points. Britain’s parliamentary election is scheduled for June 8. Sterling declined more sharply against several other currencies, as the dollar is […] More

Nato and Opec Meetings Attracting Attention, as Does Weak British GDP Report

May 25, 2017

A row broke out over U.S. leaking of key intelligence from the Manchester bombing investigation between the May and Trump governments just prior to today’s Nato meeting in Brussels. Prime Minister May will speak to President Trump about U.S. leaks, and Britain reportedly has stopped sharing information with U.S. on the matter. West Texas Intermediate crude […] More

Moody’s Downgrades China… FOMC Minutes Due

May 24, 2017

Only industrial metal prices have reacted much to news that Moody’s downgraded its Chinese credit rating for the first time in nearly 30 years. Commodities have been the main mover today. Comex gold fell 0.3% to $1,251.70 per ounce. Industrial metal prices like nickel, iron ore, and copper tumbled much more steeply. But WTI oil […] More

Better European Data, More Leaked Allegations on Trump, and a Terrorist Bomb Attack

May 23, 2017

The German business climate index compiled by the IFO Economic Institute increased 1.6 points in May to the highest level since German unification, a reading of 114.6. Current conditions went up 1.9 points, and expectations climbed 1.3 points in the latest month, prompting IFO officials to call the business mood euphoric and the pace of […] More

National Bank of Romania

April 5, 2017

Romania’s monetary policy rate has been 1.75% since a 25-basis point cut in May 2015. This month was saw the fifteenth consecutive Board meeting without an interest rate change. From April 2014 to the May 2015 cut, the interest rate had been halved from 3.5% to 1.75%. Today’s released statement notes that inflation finally moved […] More

Dollar, Stocks, and Bond Yields Drop

March 27, 2017

Markets reacted poorly to the scrapped U.S. health care bill. Disappointment transcends Trump’s inability to secure this promised deal. The repeal and replacement of Obamacare was intended to generate cost savings to the government needed to finance planned tax cuts. Tax reform will now be associated with larger fiscal deficits than had been planned, so […] More

Lots of U.S. Data and a Yellen Press Conference This Ides of March

March 15, 2017

The Federal Reserve will release new macroeconomic forecasts and  is expected to raise the fed funds target at 18:00 GMT, and the press conference begins a half hour later. The dollar softened overnight by 0.6% against the peso, 0.5% versus sterling, 0.4% relative to the New Zealand and Australian dollars, 0.3% vis-a-vis the loonie and […] More

Fed and Flynn

February 15, 2017

Markets are trading on two themes primarily: How quickly will the Fed raise interest rates again? Yellen’s testimony yesterday and separate remarks by Fed District Presidents Kaplan and Lacker suggest a third increase is coming pretty soon and need not be delayed pending clarification of fiscal and other policy changes. Yellen reprises her testimony before the […] More

FOMC Preview

February 1, 2017

Today’s Federal Open Market Committee statement on monetary policy, due at 14:00 GMT, is not expected to raise interest rates. For the first time, that was done at the prior meeting on December 13-14. At least 2, and possibly 3 or 4, increases will occur in 2017 barring an unforeseen large shock. Today’s statement will […] More

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