Uncategorized

Dollar, Stocks, and Bond Yields Drop

March 27, 2017

Markets reacted poorly to the scrapped U.S. health care bill. Disappointment transcends Trump’s inability to secure this promised deal. The repeal and replacement of Obamacare was intended to generate cost savings to the government needed to finance planned tax cuts. Tax reform will now be associated with larger fiscal deficits than had been planned, so […] More

Lots of U.S. Data and a Yellen Press Conference This Ides of March

March 15, 2017

The Federal Reserve will release new macroeconomic forecasts and  is expected to raise the fed funds target at 18:00 GMT, and the press conference begins a half hour later. The dollar softened overnight by 0.6% against the peso, 0.5% versus sterling, 0.4% relative to the New Zealand and Australian dollars, 0.3% vis-a-vis the loonie and […] More

Fed and Flynn

February 15, 2017

Markets are trading on two themes primarily: How quickly will the Fed raise interest rates again? Yellen’s testimony yesterday and separate remarks by Fed District Presidents Kaplan and Lacker suggest a third increase is coming pretty soon and need not be delayed pending clarification of fiscal and other policy changes. Yellen reprises her testimony before the […] More

FOMC Preview

February 1, 2017

Today’s Federal Open Market Committee statement on monetary policy, due at 14:00 GMT, is not expected to raise interest rates. For the first time, that was done at the prior meeting on December 13-14. At least 2, and possibly 3 or 4, increases will occur in 2017 barring an unforeseen large shock. Today’s statement will […] More

Magyar Nemzeti Bank

January 24, 2017

Hungary’s central bank base rate has been at 0.90% since a third consecutive monthly cut 0f 15 basis points administered last May. Officials voted at this month’s meeting not to change the rate. While discussing circumstances that might warrant a further easing in the future through unconventional means, a released statement makes no asymmetric hint […] More

Non-Manufacturing Activity in the U.S. and Euro Area

January 5, 2017

The U.S. non-manufacturing purchasing managers index remained flat at 57.2 in December. Not since October 2015 has the NMI been higher than this level. In December, a 4.6-point improvement in the sub-index for new business to 61.6 was counterbalanced with a 4.4-point drop in jobs to a reading of 53.8. Along with today’s smaller-than-forecast ADP estimate […] More

Bank Indonesia

December 15, 2016

From 6.25% at the start of 2016, the BI seven-day reverse repo rate was cut by 25 basis points each in January, February, March, June, September and October to the current level of 4.75%, which was held steady at this month’s meeting. The next meeting will be in February, as January is always skipped. Today’s […] More

Latest U.S. and Euroland Manufacturing Trends

December 1, 2016

The Institute of Supply Management’s U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index jumped 1.3 points to a five-month high of 53.2 in November. Sub-indices for production and orders went up 1.4 points and 0.9 points. Euroland’s comparable index, compiled by Markit Economics, went up much more modestly, rising 0.2 points to 53.7. The German and French indices […] More

Stocks and Mexican Peso Fall

November 9, 2016

The U.S. election gave the Republican Party control of the White House, both bodies of congress, and the wherewithal to secure a conservative tilt to the Supreme Court for the foreseeable future. Trump upset Clinton by capturing all the southern states except Virginia and most of the Midwest. He appealed especially to white men without […] More

September Improvement of U.S. Manufacturing Exceeds Ezone’s Improvement

October 3, 2016

The U.S. manufacturing PMI reading last month of 51.5 was lower than Euroland’s score of 52.6.  It was the eleventh time in the last fourteen months that such had happened. However, the differential between the two scores was halved. After five straight readings above the 50 no change level, the U.S. Purchasing Managers Index had […] More

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