Uncategorized
A Dismal Japanese GDP Report, Coronavirus Concerns, and Holidays in the U.S. and Canada
February 17, 2020
The Japanese economy again contracted sharply after a hike in the national sales tax. This is a phenomenon with lots of history. A 3% sales tax was introduced initially in April 1989. Back then, Japan was viewed like China is currently — an up-and-coming economic rival that could soon overtake the United States. The sales […] More
Beijing Promises Stimulus for Smaller Firms, and Investors Await Fed Chairman Powell’s Humphrey Hawkins Testimony
February 11, 2020
A pledge by China’s government to counteract any drag on growth from the coronavirus outbreak with fiscal support aimed at small and midsized companies boosted share prices in the Pacific Rim by 1.3% in Hong Kong and New Zealand, 1.0% in South Korea, 0.8% in Taiwan, 0.6% in India and 0.4% in Singapore and China. […] More
Next Week’s Menu: October 12-18
October 11, 2019
Central Banks: The Bank of Korea has a scheduled monetary policy review, and the Federal Reserve Beige Book and minutes from this month’s Reserve Bank of Australia Board meeting get published. Fed district presidents Bostic, Kaplan, Bullard and Evans are some of the U.S. central bank officials with public speaking opportunities during the week. Foreign […] More
FOMC Statement and Updated Forecasts
September 18, 2019
The federal funds target range as expected was lowered another 25 basis points to 1.75-2.0%. In the opening paragraph of the FOMC statement that describes economic conditions, investment and export demand were dowgraded to “have weakened,” while personal consumption was upgraded to a stronger pace. Similar to the statement at end-July when the initial easing was […] More
Rate Cut in Turkey
September 12, 2019
Policymakers at the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey slashed the one-week repo rate by a greater-than-expected 325 basis points in follow-up to a 425-basis point cut in July from a peak of 24.0% that had prevailed since a 625-basis point increase in September of 2018. The rate now becomes 16.5%, which the monetary […] More
Peso Panic and Some Deescalation of the U.S.-Sino Trade dispute
August 13, 2019
Sunday’s primary election in Argentina served notice that populism is making a big comeback there and has generated a stampede out of the peso (down nearly 22%) and local stocks, whose share prices tumbled nearly 50% and by the second largest day-to-day slump in seven decades. Investors fear a return to protectionism and other state […] More
February in Figures
February 28, 2019
Sterling and the dollar strengthened during February. Ten-year sovereign debt yields rose slightly more sharply in the month than their counterparts in the other countries featured in the table below, but none of the central bank rates among them were changed. Equities in most of the places continued to recover, although not as much as […] More
Dollar Softer Ahead of FOMC Decision and After U.S. Current Account Release
December 19, 2018
Despite weaker data and pressure from Trump, the Federal Open Market Committee is expected to announce the fourth rate hike of 2018 later today but to couch such within more accommodative forward guidance regarding likely policy in 2019. The U.S. current account deficit jumped to $124.8 billion in the third quarter from $101.2 billion in […] More
Next Week
December 7, 2018
Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews are scheduled at the European Central Bank and at central banks in Switzerland, Brazil, Iceland, Norway, the Philippines, Ukraine, Turkey and Russia. The Bank of Japan publishes findings of its quarterly Tankan survey of corporate conditions and expectations, and Fed Chairman’s postponed testimony before the congressional joint economic committee will […] More
Mixed U.S. Data, Lots of Other Data, and Ever-present Worries about The Mueller Investigation and U.S.-Sino Trade Strains
November 29, 2018
U.S. personal income rose 0.5% last month, a 7-month high. Personal consumption expenditures went up even more robustly, 0.6%, and the core PCE price deflator measure of U.S. inflation settled back 0.1 percentage point to 1.8%. On the other hand, U.S. pending home sales sank 2.6% to a near four-year low and recorded an on-year […] More
