Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week

October 20, 2017

Central Bank Action: Monetary policy meetings are scheduled at the European Central Bank, Bank of Canada, Swedish Riksbank, Bank of Norway, Central Bank of Brazil, Bank of Russia, and central banks in Ukraine, Colombia, Turkey, and Hungary. The ECB’s quantitative stimulus plans in 2018 will be detailed, and the Bank of Canada will release a […] More

Dollar Determinants to Watch

October 16, 2017

Dollar/yen has been a more stable relationship in 2017 than the EUR/USD pair. Monthly averages of the yen from February through September were confined within a three percentage point band with a dollar high of 113.04 in March and a low of 109.77 in August. The mean so far this month likes within that range […] More

Next Week

October 13, 2017

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews are scheduled next week in Israel, South Korea, Indonesia and Chile. Minutes from prior central bank meetings will be published by the Reserve Banks of Australia and India, and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book of regional economic conditions gets released. Yellen, Kaplan and Dudley of the Fed speak publicly; so […] More

Next Week

October 6, 2017

Central Banks: Monetary policy meetings are scheduled in Peru and Serbia. FOMC minutes will be published, and Kashkari, Evans, Brainard, Powell and Kaplan are some of the FOMC officials speaking publicly in the week. So will Draghi and Praet of the European Central Bank. Holidays and Special Event: Markets are closed Monday for Columbus Day […] More

U.S. Economic Performance Under Seven Different Fed Chair-Persons

October 3, 2017

There have been only seven leaders of the Federal Reserve System since April 1951, a period spanning two-thirds of a century. William McChesney Martin was appointed by Truman and served from April 2, 1951 when his age was 44 until January 31, 1970 when it was 63.  His father had been a central banker, but […] More

Next Week

September 29, 2017

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews scheduled in Australia, India, Iceland, Poland, Hungary, and Romania. Various Fed officials will be speaking publicly, including Yellen, Dudley, Powell, Williams, Bostic, Harker, George and Kapan. Minutes of the ECB Governing Council meeting to be published. Holidays: China all week to commemorate Communist revolution victory in 1979. Hong Kong on […] More

Next Week

September 22, 2017

Central Banks: Monetary policy meetings in New Zealand, Mexico, Thailand, Sri Lanka, the Czech Republic, Sri Lanka, and Colombia. Bank of Japan publishes minutes from its July Board meeting and a summary of the September meeting. Various Fed officials will speak publicly including Yellen, George, Rosengren, Harker, Dudley, Evans, Bullard, and Kashkari. Governors of the […] More

The U.S. Current Account, the Dollar, and Real GDP Growth

September 19, 2017

The U.S. current account deficit, the broadest measure of net foreign demand, has been manageable in size and comparatively steady relative to GDP in the years since the Great Recession. The current account comprises trade in goods and services, net investment income, and transfer payments. As a percentage of nominal GDP, the deficit equaled 2.4% […] More

Next Week

September 15, 2017

Central Banks: Monetary policy meetings next week will be held at the Federa Reserve, Bank of Japan, and in Norway, Hungary, South Africa, The Philippines and Indonesia. The FOMC meeting will update macroeconomic forecasts and be followed by Janet Yellen’s press conference. BOJ Governor Kuroda and Bank of England Governor Carney also will be speaking […] More

A Shift in Dollar Autumn Seasonality Since the Great Recession

September 11, 2017

The dollar has experienced a marginally soft tone on balance since the U.S. Labor Day holiday. Bilateral dollar values against both the euro and yen have each declined 0.8% since the New York close on Friday, September 1. A depreciating bias in autumn also characterized the dollar for much of the post-1973 era of floating, […] More