Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

A Shift in Dollar Autumn Seasonality Since the Great Recession

September 11, 2017

The dollar has experienced a marginally soft tone on balance since the U.S. Labor Day holiday. Bilateral dollar values against both the euro and yen have each declined 0.8% since the New York close on Friday, September 1. A depreciating bias in autumn also characterized the dollar for much of the post-1973 era of floating, […] More

Next Week

September 1, 2017

Central Bank Beat: Monetary policy meetings at the ECB and in Sweden, Australia, Canada, Brazil, Poland, Malaysia, and Serbia. Fed Beige Book of regional economic conditions will be published. Fed officials with public speaking engagements included Mester, Kashkari, Harker, Brainard, and Kaplan. Mario Draghi will oversee a press conference on Thursday. Holidays: U.S. and Canadian […] More

Economic Convergence and Forecasting Forex

August 28, 2017

Members of the Group of Seven, a collection of industrial economies ┬áhave experienced similar rates of economic growth during the past year. Between 2Q16 and 2Q17, real GDP advanced 2.1% in the United States, 2.0% in Japan, 2.1% in Germany, 1.8% in France, 1.7% in Great Britain, 1.5% in Italy, and 2.3% in Canada. Euroland’s […] More

Next Week

August 25, 2017

Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Surveys for August: China, Japan, Euroland, U.S., U.K., Switzerland, Italy, France, Germany, India, Poland, Czech Republic, Sweden, Norway, The Netherlands, Turkey, Hungary, Austria, Thailand, Taiwan, Malaysia, South Korea, Ireland, Indonesia, and Australia. Central Banks: Jackson Hole Symposium ends August 26. Central banks hold monetary policy meetings in South Korea, Colombia and Israel. […] More

Comment on Euro-Yen Currency Pair

August 21, 2017

In spite of wide short-term variability in the euro’s yen cross rate, the relationship has been pretty stable over the long run. The financial crisis that began ten years ago this month occurred roughly 8-3/4 years after euro was created by merging several European currencies and putting all members of the newly formed euro area […] More

Next Week

August 18, 2017

Central Banks: Iceland, Indonesia and Hungary have planned monetary policy reviews next week, and Draghi and Constancio of the European Central Bank speak publicly. Holidays and Special Events: The Hindu holiday of Garesh Chaturthi begins Friday, and the annual Jackson Hole central banking symposium, hosted by the Kansas City Fed, runs from Thursday through Saturday. […] More

Next Week

August 11, 2017

Central Banks: Monetary policy meetings in Chile and Thailand. Released minutes from the FOMC, European Central Bank and Reserve Bank of Australia. Holidays: The religious Assumption Day and Independence Day in both India and Indonesia. Scheduled U.S. Data Releases: Retail sales, industrial production, import prices, the Empire State and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys, housing starts, […] More

Ten Years after the Onset of the Financial Crisis

August 7, 2017

The initial tremors of the financial crisis that triggered the Great Recession were felt ten years ago this week. The dollar is 56% and 17% stronger now than then against sterling and the euro but 18.6% and 7.6% weaker relative to the Swiss franc and yen. The dollar has also appreciated versus commodity-sensitive currencies such […] More

Next Week

August 4, 2017

Central Banks: Monetary policy meetings are scheduled in New Zealand, The Philippines, Mexico, Peru and Serbia. Kashkari, Dudley and Kaplan are some of the Fed officials speaking publicly. So will Reserve Bank of Australia GovernorLowe and Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Wheeler. Holidays: A Civic Holiday Monday in Canada. Women’s Day in South Africa […] More

Next Week

July 28, 2017

Central Banks: Monetary policy meetings in Australia, Great Britain, India, Sri Lanka, Romania, the Czech Republic and Ukraine. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s quarterly Monetary Policy Statement and Bank of Japan’s Summary will be published. Mester and Williams of the Federal Reserve speak publicly. Purchasing Manager Surveys: Many service sector PMIs and even more manufacturing […] More