Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Spotlight on Sterling

August 6, 2018

As a former hegemonic reserve currency with enormous residual offshore holdings, sterling is intrinsically susceptible to being shoved around disproportionately whenever favorable or unfavorable fundamental economic shifts arise. From $2.80 prior to the November 1967 devaluation, the pound slid to a low of $1.55 less than a decade later in October 1976 and touched an […] More

Next Week

August 3, 2018

Central Banks: Central banks hold monetary policy reviews in Australia, New Zealand, Thailand, The Philippines, Peru, Romania and Serbia. Australia’s quarterly Monetary Policy Statement and minutes from the Bank of Japan Board meeting to be published. Barkin of the Fed speaks publicly, as will Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe. Holidays: August Civic holiday in […] More

Next Week

July 27, 2018

Central Banks: The Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan lead a list of central banks reviewing monetary policy next week that also includes centrals in India, the Czech Republic, Sri Lanka, Brazil, and Mexico. An updated BOJ Outlook will be published, and Governor Kuroda will¬† hold a press conference. Governor Carney of […] More

Next Week

July 20, 2018

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews at the European Central Bank (followed by ECB President Draghi’s press conference) and in Turkey, Hungary, Colombia, Chile and Russia. St. Louis Fed President Bullard speaks publicly. Events: OPEC oil ministers meeting and a meeting of Euroland finance ministers. Scheduled U.S. Statistical Releases:¬†2Q GDP, existing home sales, new home sales, […] More

Vulnerable Time for Emerging Market Currencies

July 19, 2018

The combination of a tightening Federal Reserve policy, escalating tariff warfare, and heightened geopolitical uncertainty can be particularly risky for the currencies of developing and emerging economies. They tend to be heavily dependent on trade as an engine of economic growth and reliant upon inflows of foreign capital to cover current account deficits. Also, the […] More

Next Week

July 13, 2018

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews in South Africa and Indonesia. Jay Powell delivers semi-annual Humphrey Hawkins testimony to Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday. Fed Beige Book and minutes from the July Board meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia will be published. Events and Holidays: A meeting of […] More

Next Week

July 6, 2018

Central Banks: Monetary policy meetings in Canada, South Korea, Malaysia, Poland, Serbia, Ukraine, Israel, and Peru. Fed officials speaking publicly include Bostic and Kashkari. Scheduled U.S. Statistical Releases: Consumer prices, producer prices, import prices, JOLTS index of worker hires and separations, NIFB small business sentiment index, Reuters/U. Michigan consumer sentiment, consumer credit and weekly jobless […] More

Dollar at Mid-2018

July 2, 2018

Unlike several past eras, the dollar is not currently experiencing a multiyear directional bias. Against other currencies monitored regularly on this web site, the U.S. currency rose in more instances than it fell during 2016. It depreciated in all instances last year but climbed, except against the yen, during the first half of 2018. To […] More

Next Week

June 29, 2018

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews are scheduled in Australia, Sweden, and Romania. FOMC minutes and the results of the quarterly Bank of Japan survey of business conditions and expectations will be published. Holidays and Special Events: Next week kicks of the third quarter and second half of 2018. There are holiday closures on Monday in […] More

Next Week

June 15, 2018

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews in the U.K., Switzerland, Thailand, Taiwan, The Philippines, Brazil, Mexico, Norway and Hungary. Release of Bank of Japan minutes. Fed officials speaking publicly include Powell, Bullard, Dudley, Bostic, and Williams. Other central bankers speaking in public include Draghi, Praet, Lautenschlaeger and Coeure of the ECB, Governor Kuroda of the BOJ […] More