Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

U.S. Mid-Term Election and the Dollar

October 31, 2018

The result of the U.S. election on November 6th can be viewed in binary terms. Either President Trump and the Republican Party will emerge still controlling all three branches of the federal government or political power to some extent will be shared. Because authoritarian leadership tends to become more deeply entrenched as more and more […] More

Next Week

October 26, 2018

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews in Japan, the U.K., Brazil, China, and the Czech Republic. BOJ publishes quarterly Outlook for Economic Growth and Prices. BOJ Governor Kuroda, Bank of England Governor Carney, Chicago Fed President Evans, and Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Bullock speak publicly. Holidays, Clock Change, and a 40th Anniversary: Parts of […] More

Next Week

October 19, 2018

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews at the European Central Bank and in Canada, Russia, Sweden, Norway, Ukraine, Colombia and Turkey. ECB President Draghi, Bank of Canada Governor Poloz, Atlanta Fed President Bostic, and Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor DeBelle and Assistant Governor Boulton will be speaking publicly. The Fed Beige Book, Bank of Canada […] More

U.S. Current Account and The Dollar

October 9, 2018

Reducing the U.S. trade deficit is a centerpiece of President Trump’s economic policy agenda, but the imbalance has been widening in 2018. A $570.5 billion census-basis merchandise trade deficit in January – August was $50.4 billion, or almost 10%, larger than the year-earlier deficit. Bilateral deficits grew each by $21.4 billion with Europe and China. […] More

Next Week

October 5, 2018

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews in Serbia, Peru, Israel and Argentina. Bostic, Williams and Evans are some of the Fed officials speaking publicly. ECB minutes to be published. Holidays and Special Events: Sports Day in Japan, Columbus Day in the U.S. and Thanksgiving Day in Canada fall on Monday. The Autumn World Bank/IMF meetings run […] More

Next Week

September 28, 2018

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews in Australia, India, Iceland, Poland, Sri Lanka, Romania and Mexico. Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey of corporate conditions and expectations will be published Monday. Powell, Mester, Rosengren, Barkin, Evans and Quarles are among the Fed officials speaking in public next week. Holidays and Events: China is shut all week […] More

Next Week

September 21, 2018

Central Banks: An FOMC meeting with updated forecasts and a press conference to follow. Other monetary policy reviews scheduled in The Philippines, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, New Zealand, the Czech Republic, Taiwan, and Colombia. Powell, Barkin, Kaplan and Ramsden of the Fed will be speaking publicly. So will Governors Orr, Kuroda and Poloz of the Reserve […] More

Next Week

September 14, 2018

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews in Japan, Brazil, Switzerland, Norway, South Africa, Hungary, and Thailand. Minutes of the last Reserve Bank of Australia policy review to be published. RBA Kent and ECB President Draghi speak publicly. Holidays and Special Events: Japan’s Respect for the Aged Day on Monday. India’s Islamic New Year (Moharram) on Thursday. […] More

Dollar since the Bankruptcy of Lehman Bros.

September 9, 2018

The singular event in the transformation of the financial crisis of 2007 into the Great Recession occurred ten years ago this week when U.S. Treasury and Fed officials let Lehman Brothers fail rather than fashion an aid package as they had done previously that year for other institutions. Compared to its closing levels on September […] More

Next Week

September 7, 2018

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews at the European Central Bank, Bank of England, and in Turkey, Russia, Argentina and Peru. Publication of the Federal Reserve Beige Book on U.S. regional economic conditions. Bostic, Rosengren and Bullock of the Fed will be speaking publicly. So will ECB President Draghi and Bank of England Governor Carney at […] More