Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week

March 10, 2018

Special Events: Meeting of EU finance ministers on Thursday. U.S. moves clocks forward one hour tonight, which will temporarily reduce the time difference between N.Y. and London to four hours, N.Y. and Frankfurt to five hours, and N.Y. and Tokyo to 13 hours. The British Chancellor of the Exchequer releases the spring forecast statement on […] More

Next Week

March 4, 2018

Special Events: Italian parliamentary election on March 4th and announced details of U.S. tariffs. Central Banks: Monetary policy meetings scheduled in Australia, Japan, Canada, Euroland, Malaysia, Turkey, Peru, Serbia, Romania, and Poland. The Fed Beige Book of regional conditions will be published, and Dudley, Rosengren, Bostic, Kaplan, and Quarles will be speaking publicly. So will […] More

Known Unknowns

March 1, 2018

When you think about the number of meaningful changes with imprecise consequences, it’s no wonder that world financial markets are more volatile in 2018 and why investors remain very jittery. Four of the changes involve U.S. economic policies. The earliest to be undertaken was broad government deregulation including but not limited to the activities of […] More

Next Week

February 23, 2018

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews in South Korea, Israel, Ukraine, and Hungary. Fed Chairman Powell’s initial semi-annual Humphrey Hawkins testimony (Wednesday before the House Financial Services Committee and Thursday before the Senate Banking Committee). Fed also publishes its Beige Book of regional economic conditions. Manufacturing Purchasing Manager February Surveys: China, U.S., Japan, U.K, Euroland, Germany, […] More

Next Week

February 16, 2018

Holidays: Lunar New Year Closures Monday in China, Hong Kong and Singapore. China remains shut on Tuesday and Wednesday. U.S. and Canada are also closed on Monday for Washington’s Birthday and Family Day, respectively. Central Banks: Following a slew of central bank policy reviews during the past two weeks, the coming week has very few […] More

Dollar and Relative Inflation

February 15, 2018

One theory of long-term exchange rate determination known as Purchasing Power Parity stipulates that currency movements have a tendency eventually to offset variations in relative inflation rates, such that the amount of currency A needed to purchase a bundle of trade-exposed goods in country A when converted into currency B will be just enough to […] More

Next Week

February 9, 2018

Holiday Closures: Japan Founders Day on Monday. Brazil observes Mardi Gras on Monday and Tuesday. Several Asian countries will be closed Thursday and/or Friday for the Lunar New Year that ushers in the year of the dog. These include China, South Korea, Hong Kong, Indonesia and Singapore. Central Banks: Policy reviews at the Swedish Riksbank, […] More

Next Week

February 2, 2018

Central Banks: A considerable list of monetary policy meetings scheduled next week features the Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia, Reserve Bank of India, and Bank of Russia and also includes central banks in Iceland, Thailand, New Zealand, Romania, Serbia, Poland, Mexico and Peru. RBA Governor Lowe and BOE Governor Carney hold subsequent press […] More

Next Week

January 26, 2018

Central Banks: Monetary policy meetings are scheduled in the United States (the last one with Yellen as chair), Czech Republic, Chile, Colombia and Hungary. A summary of the Bank of Japan board meeting last week will be published. Iwata of the BOJ and Mersch of the European Central Bank speak publicly. Special Events: President Trump […] More

Dollar Reflecting an Erosion of Respect

January 24, 2018

Viewed from a very wide angle lens, currency valuations reflect the present value of a country’s perceived future. The perceived economic potential of a nation plays a big role in this evaluation. Investors want a store of value that is associated with a steady and desirable rate of inflation. A currency that holds its internal […] More