Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Early 2019 Check-Up on the Dollar

January 10, 2019

Compared to volatile share prices and sovereign debt yields, key dollar relationships like EUR/USD and USD/JYP have been pretty stable lately, and neither of those pairs is trading in historically extreme territory. The euro just passed its 20th birthday. Over the four quadrants of this lifespan, the common European currency had an average value of […] More

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January 4, 2019

Central Banks: Monetary  policy meetings in Canada, Turkey, Poland, Israel, Serbia, Romania and Peru. FOMC minutes and Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report will be published. Clarida, Harker, and Bostic are some of the Fed officials scheduled to speak publicly. So is Bank of Canada Governor Poloz. Purchasing Manager Surveys Being Released: Covered economic sectors […] More

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December 28, 2018

Holiday Closures: New Year’s Day, which falls on Tuesday, is the most broadly experienced holiday in the world. Russia will be closed also on Monday and New Zealand on Wednesday. Japan is shut on Thursday and will close early  on Friday. Much of Switzerland will be observing Berchold’s Day on Wednesday. Central Banks: Minutes will […] More

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December 21, 2018

Holiday Closures: Many countries will be closed either all Monday (Christmas Eve) or for part of the that day. Japan also will be shut Monday in observance of the Emperor’s Birthday even though it actually falls on Sunday. Most markets but notably not Japan are closed Tuesday for Christmas.  On Wednesday (Boxing Day and St. […] More

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December 14, 2018

As officials and the private sector rush to get the month’s work done before yearend holidays, the third week of December tends to be crowded with activity, and 2018 is no exception. Central Banks: Central bank policy reviews in the United States, Japan, the U.K., Sweden, Indonesia, Hungary, Taiwan, Thailand, Mexico, Colombia, and the Czech […] More

A Cup Half-Empty View of the Dollar’s Outlook

December 4, 2018

My blog entry three weeks ago presented a mostly upbeat short- to medium-term view of the dollar’s outlook, although downside risks especially further out in time were cited, too. In the role of Devil’s Advocate, this follow-up piece has a more bearish hue, taking into account some shifting developments. U.S. President Trump’s bobbing and weaving […] More

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November 24, 2018

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews in South Korea and Israel. Publication of FOMC minutes from meeting on November 8. Federal Reserve officials speaking publicly during the coming week include Chairman Powell, Vice Chair Clarida, and district presidents Bostic, George, Evans and Williams. Also making public comments will be Draghi, Praet, Coeure, Nowatny, and Mersch of […] More

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November 16, 2018

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews will occur in Hungary and South Africa. Minutes from the last policy meetings will be released by the European Central Bank and Reserve Bank of Australia. RBA Governor Lowe, BOJ Governor Kuroda, and NY Fed President Williams speak publicly. Holidays and Special Events: Indonesia celebrates the birthday of Muhammed on […] More

Foreign Exchange Heading into the Home Stretch Leg of 2018 Trading

November 13, 2018

The day after tomorrow will complete the 7th eighth of this calendar year. Unlike 2017, the dollar has performed well in 2018 and figures to retail resilience in the home stretch, notwithstanding an historical tendency to fade more often than not in late December. Factors that have buoyed the dollar remain in place. Three increases […] More

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November 9, 2018

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews in Indonesia, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Mexico and The Philippines. Quarles, Powell, Kashkari and Evans of the Federal Reserve speak publicly. Holidays and Special Events: U.S. Veterans Day on Monday. Brazil observes Proclamation of the Republic Day on Thursday. President Trump visits Europe to attend the WWI centenary celebration of the […] More