Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Might the Dollar Be Approaching a Near-Term Tipping Point?

May 13, 2020

The last half century has seen six very broad waves representing three multi-year depreciations alternating with three multi-year appreciations. These six partitions have been relatively similar in duration and, in some instances, magnitude. 1970 represented the last stage of a post-WW2 period of fixed parities anchored by America’s willingness to exchange gold for dollars at […] More

Coming Week’s Menu: May 9-15, 2020

May 10, 2020

Central Banks: Monetary policies to be reviewed in New Zealand, Mexico, Romania and the Philippines. Fed officials Harker, Qurales and Mester are speaking publicly as is Bank of Canada Governor Poloz. A summary of the last Bank of Japan Board meeting and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Monetary Policy Statement will be published. Scheduled […] More

Next Week’s Menu: May 2-8, 2020

May 1, 2020

Central Banks: Monetary policies will be reviewed in Australia, Russia, Chile, Peru, the U.K., Malaysia, the Czech Republic, Norway, and Brazil. The Bank of England publishes a quarterly Inflation Report, and Governor Bailey presides over a press conference. Purchasing Manager Surveys: PMIs get released on every day of next week. The largest number will cover […] More

Handicapping the Dollar Outlook in a Pandemic-Preoccupied Era

April 30, 2020

Projecting the dollar’s value has always been very challenging and humbling. Economic trend forecasting is hard enough, and anticipating the reaction of financial markets to different economic scenarios introduces a whole new level of uncertainty to the exercise. Market watchers this year have been dealing with a third broad complication and the most vexing of […] More

Coming Week’s Menu: April 25 – May 1, 2020

April 25, 2020

Central Banks: Monetary policies will be reviewed in the United States, Japan, Euroland, Sweden and Hungary. Fed Chairman Powell, European Central Bank President Lagarde, and Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda will hold press conferences after their respective meeings, and the Bank of Japan will publish a new Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices. A Holiday-Laden […] More

Next Week’s Menu: April 18 – 24, 2020

April 17, 2020

Central Banks: monetary policy reviews are scheduled in Turkey, China, Russia, and Ukraine, but unscheduled meetings have become common during the Covid-19 pandemic. Minutes from the last Reserve Bank of Australia will be published, and RBA Governor Lowe speaks publicly. Holiday’s and Special Events: Australia and New Zealand observe ANZAC Day at the end of […] More

The Coming Week’s Menu: April 11 – 17, 2020

April 11, 2020

Central Banks: Monetary policy meetings in Indonesia, Peru and Canada. Publication of Fed’s Beige Book of regional economic conditions, Bank of Canada’s quarterly Monetary Policy Report, and Minutes from last Reserve Bank of India Board meeting. Bank of Canada Governor Poloz and Chicago Fed President Evans are scheduled to speak publicly. Holidays and Special Events: […] More

Pandemic, Economy, and the Dollar

April 6, 2020

Currency market participants are in an unprecedented period whose evolution will be decided foremost by an external factor involving a shock to the system in which even the experts have no first-hand experience. Although medical scientists have considerable familiarity dealing with other coronaviruses, there hasn’t been a respiratory pandemic in the last 102 years to […] More

Next Week’s Menu: April 4 – 10, 2020

April 3, 2020

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews are scheduled in Israel, Australia, Poland, Serbia and South Korea. Also know that during the Covid-19 crisis, central bank policies have been modified frequently after unscheduled meetings. FOMC minutes will be published, and so will the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey. Holidays and Other Notes of Interest: Mahavir Jayanti […] More

Next Week’s Menu: March 28 – April 3, 2020

March 27, 2020

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews are scheduled in Singapore and Chile. Policy meetings scheduled originally for April 3rd in India and Romania were held in advance of that date. The RBI today announced a 75-basis point cut and several other easing measures, and the National Bank of Romania’s 50-bp cut on March 20 was accompanied […] More