Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

U.S. Economic Performance Under Seven Different Fed Chair-Persons

October 3, 2017

There have been only seven leaders of the Federal Reserve System since April 1951, a period spanning two-thirds of a century. William McChesney Martin was appointed by Truman and served from April 2, 1951 when his age was 44 until January 31, 1970 when it was 63.¬† His father had been a central banker, but […] More

Next Week

September 29, 2017

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews scheduled in Australia, India, Iceland, Poland, Hungary, and Romania. Various Fed officials will be speaking publicly, including Yellen, Dudley, Powell, Williams, Bostic, Harker, George and Kapan. Minutes of the ECB Governing Council meeting to be published. Holidays: China all week to commemorate Communist revolution victory in 1979. Hong Kong on […] More

Next Week

September 22, 2017

Central Banks: Monetary policy meetings in New Zealand, Mexico, Thailand, Sri Lanka, the Czech Republic, Sri Lanka, and Colombia. Bank of Japan publishes minutes from its July Board meeting and a summary of the September meeting. Various Fed officials will speak publicly including Yellen, George, Rosengren, Harker, Dudley, Evans, Bullard, and Kashkari. Governors of the […] More

The U.S. Current Account, the Dollar, and Real GDP Growth

September 19, 2017

The U.S. current account deficit, the broadest measure of net foreign demand, has been manageable in size and comparatively steady relative to GDP in the years since the Great Recession. The current account comprises trade in goods and services, net investment income, and transfer payments. As a percentage of nominal GDP, the deficit equaled 2.4% […] More

Next Week

September 15, 2017

Central Banks: Monetary policy meetings next week will be held at the Federa Reserve, Bank of Japan, and in Norway, Hungary, South Africa, The Philippines and Indonesia. The FOMC meeting will update macroeconomic forecasts and be followed by Janet Yellen’s press conference. BOJ Governor Kuroda and Bank of England Governor Carney also will be speaking […] More

A Shift in Dollar Autumn Seasonality Since the Great Recession

September 11, 2017

The dollar has experienced a marginally soft tone on balance since the U.S. Labor Day holiday. Bilateral dollar values against both the euro and yen have each declined 0.8% since the New York close on Friday, September 1. A depreciating bias in autumn also characterized the dollar for much of the post-1973 era of floating, […] More

Next Week

September 1, 2017

Central Bank Beat: Monetary policy meetings at the ECB and in Sweden, Australia, Canada, Brazil, Poland, Malaysia, and Serbia. Fed Beige Book of regional economic conditions will be published. Fed officials with public speaking engagements included Mester, Kashkari, Harker, Brainard, and Kaplan. Mario Draghi will oversee a press conference on Thursday. Holidays: U.S. and Canadian […] More

Economic Convergence and Forecasting Forex

August 28, 2017

Members of the Group of Seven, a collection of industrial economies ¬†have experienced similar rates of economic growth during the past year. Between 2Q16 and 2Q17, real GDP advanced 2.1% in the United States, 2.0% in Japan, 2.1% in Germany, 1.8% in France, 1.7% in Great Britain, 1.5% in Italy, and 2.3% in Canada. Euroland’s […] More

Next Week

August 25, 2017

Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Surveys for August: China, Japan, Euroland, U.S., U.K., Switzerland, Italy, France, Germany, India, Poland, Czech Republic, Sweden, Norway, The Netherlands, Turkey, Hungary, Austria, Thailand, Taiwan, Malaysia, South Korea, Ireland, Indonesia, and Australia. Central Banks: Jackson Hole Symposium ends August 26. Central banks hold monetary policy meetings in South Korea, Colombia and Israel. […] More

Comment on Euro-Yen Currency Pair

August 21, 2017

In spite of wide short-term variability in the euro’s yen cross rate, the relationship has been pretty stable over the long run. The financial crisis that began ten years ago this month occurred roughly 8-3/4 years after euro was created by merging several European currencies and putting all members of the newly formed euro area […] More