Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Ten Years after the Onset of the Financial Crisis

August 7, 2017

The initial tremors of the financial crisis that triggered the Great Recession were felt ten years ago this week. The dollar is 56% and 17% stronger now than then against sterling and the euro but 18.6% and 7.6% weaker relative to the Swiss franc and yen. The dollar has also appreciated versus commodity-sensitive currencies such […] More

Next Week

August 4, 2017

Central Banks: Monetary policy meetings are scheduled in New Zealand, The Philippines, Mexico, Peru and Serbia. Kashkari, Dudley and Kaplan are some of the Fed officials speaking publicly. So will Reserve Bank of Australia GovernorLowe and Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Wheeler. Holidays: A Civic Holiday Monday in Canada. Women’s Day in South Africa […] More

Next Week

July 28, 2017

Central Banks: Monetary policy meetings in Australia, Great Britain, India, Sri Lanka, Romania, the Czech Republic and Ukraine. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s quarterly Monetary Policy Statement and Bank of Japan’s Summary will be published. Mester and Williams of the Federal Reserve speak publicly. Purchasing Manager Surveys: Many service sector PMIs and even more manufacturing […] More

Dollar Image Still Eroding

July 23, 2017

The initial advance of the dollar after Donald Trump’s election has been erased. The euphoria had stemmed from a belief that federal government policy would be legislated more easily with single party control and that the Trump proposals of tax relief, financial market deregulation, fair trade, and infrastructure repair would lift productivity, shrink the trade […] More

Next Week

July 21, 2017

Central Bank: Monetary policy meetings in the United States (but no press conference afterwards), Brazil, Russia, Turkey and Colombia. Bank of Japan to release a “summary” of its July meeting and minutes from its June Board meeting. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe speaks publicly. Special Event: Meeting scheduled for Monday in St. Petersburg, Russia […] More

Next Week

July 14, 2017

Central Banks: The European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, South African Reserve Bank, Bank Indonesia and Magyar Nemzeti Bank will hold monetary policy meetings. Minutes from the last Reserve Bank of Australia meeting and an updated Bank of Japan Outlook will be published. ECB President Draghi and BOJ Governor Kuroda will preside over press conferences. […] More

Dollar Possibly on Course for a Perfect Storm of Uncertain Timing

July 10, 2017

A term often mentioned today in assessments of the Hamburg Summit has been the G19. With the United States delegation marching to its own drumbeat, the other nineteen governments agreed to coordinate on a host of policies for their mutual benefit and to proceed in effect as a Group of Nineteen. If the U.S. renounces […] More

Next Week

July 8, 2017

Holiday: French Bastille Day on Friday, July 14. Central Banks: Monetary policy meetings in Canada, Israel, Serbia, Peru, Malaysia, and South Korea. Chair Janet Yellen delivers her semi-annual testimony to the House Banking Committee on Wednesday and will reprise such before the Senate Financial Services Committee on Thursday; unless renominated by President Trump, this will […] More

Next Week

June 30, 2017

Central Banks: Monetary policy meetings in Australia, Thailand, Ukraine, Poland and Romania. FOMC minutes, ECB Account (like minutes), and the Bank of Japan quarterly Tankan survey of businesses will be published. Powell and Bullard are two of the Federal Reserve officials who’ll speak publicly. Holidays: Canada Day to be observed Monday. U.S. Treasury market closes […] More

Populism Not a Good Recipe for Currency Strength

June 28, 2017

Among highly developed countries, the United States and Great Britain are some of the best examples in which the politics of populism has made the greatest inroads. Sterling is roughly 14% weaker now against the dollar than when the Brexit referendum was approved a little over a year ago, but even the pound has appreciated […] More